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Up close look (h/t @canderson)

Not even close for the Great Lakes and northeast. The west is a different story.

December 2024 and February 2025 were officially below average.

New day 3 is out Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO SOUTHERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks. A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening. Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon.

If this storm was aligned in the Chicago to Detroit corridor it would be a massive thread. This is the equivalent of a new England threat where the northern half of Maine is the southern extent of the goods.

Latest Day 3 from SPC. 45% wind probs just south of the Mason Dixon

Oh my Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO SOUTHERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks. A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening. Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 03/14/2026

Discussion leads with mentioning potential future upgrade to MOD risk for SC to MD

The interesting thing is some of the cams were spitting out big numbers but it wasn’t using crazy high ratios to do it. Some of them had ratios of 11 or 12:1 which isn’t that high, and it was still giving us over 20” totals. Just imagine if we actually got 15:1 ratios for this entire storm lol .

Oh snap @Kmlwx @wxmeddler @high risk @Eskimo Joe

Lots of 50-60 mph gusts on models

Afternoon day 3 from SPC

Milwaukee update Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Lafayette-Green-Rock- Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Delavan, Mineral Point, Monroe, Kenosha, Whitewater, Brodhead, Shullsburg, Lake Geneva, Fort Atkinson, Muskego, Argyle, Blanchardville, Madison, East Troy, Belmont, Watertown, Janesville, Milwaukee, Darlington, Jefferson, Benton, Brookfield, Waukesha, New Berlin, Racine, Dodgeville, Beloit, Elkhorn, Barneveld, and Menomonee Falls 140 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

MPX mentioned low ratios, in setups like these it’s what typically happens. Also it’s mid March not January.

They're still acclimating to daylight savings changeover.

Just saw it. Wow, going to be hard to sleep tonight if that’s what’s in store. Optimism growing. Top 10 or bust!

Maybe it changed today, but yesterday it looked kind of inverted.

Looks like MKE didn’t do a morning discussion.

Dumb question but why are the 12km and 3km NAM runs so different? Effectively different models in terms of how they process data? .

Hrrr has the bullseye over the heart of MSP. .

18z hrrr is one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen for us. Several hours of 2”+ rates, even pushing 3” for a while. The one thing that could really hamper our totals are the ratios. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the ratios are under 10:1, maybe getting a bit better as the rates ease up but at that point the winds will ramp up and compact things too. .

I’d definitely feel better in your location versus mine. (Lake Nokomis - S. MPLS) Either way I’ve got cautious optimism in a metro wide 12-18” Starting to spit flakes here.

Dammit, you made me look!