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After having a few chilly runs in late Oct for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet!

Actually you are so correct. But I’ll go out on a limb here and say that will certainly tone down…99% of the time it does. Unless this is the 1 percenter?

regardless of snow, looks like a decent cold shot across all guidance around the 10-12th. A bit OT but i started reading this last night to get into the winter spirit: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61272028-northeaster highly recommend it for any other weather history buffs out there. It's an enjoyable read so far about a storm I really knew nothing about.

I think they radiate well there with the sandy soil. HVN and BDR were in the mid 40s most of the night.

looks great. how much and was that from Sat?

November.

Yes. So, even if there’s no more ACE, 2025 will end above the 1991-2020 average of 122.

We are at 132.6 total ACE now?

Groton taking the crown of coldest coastal spot in CT so far this fall.

Eps had a bit of a nod to the Gefs ideas with the MJO at 00z.

Just 0.02" here.

Can you add an angry emoji please. Sad doesn't cut it.

This made me laugh too hard

Past few runs of the EPS really trying to sell our first snow chcs of the season up here. Something to keep an eye on, fs

I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential mornings when comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normally do. It seems we are getting an anomalously large number of superb radiational cooling nights. That one factor appears to be over-achieving relative to "rational cooling night" climo - if there were ever a metric. It's just I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential morning comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normal due. Autumn is the time of year for that to happen, true. But lost count

Suck it up buttercup.

Wizards done... Capitals done

looks like a solidly above normal month ahead. Not by a lot, but it won’t be close to normal. New normal old normal whatever. if I still have my outdoor shower going at the beginning of November with no end date in sight, that’s a warm intro to winter

@Stormchaserchuck1 What was your final NAO number?

Yeah I’m ready for it to start warming up. I’m already sick of winter. lol

I've been anticipating a -1 to -1.2 peak RONI,

41.4

Sep 17th through Nov 3rd highest ACE back to 1851 based on tracks on record and my ACE calculations/estimates: 1878: ~105-110 1894: ~100-110 2025: 94 1893: ~89 2017: 88 2024: 86 2016: 85 2005: 85 So, 2025 had the highest Sept 17th-Nov 3rd ACE since 1895 and the 3rd highest on record! Sept 17th-Nov 3rd ACE 2025-2010: 2025: 94 2024: 86 2023: 42 2022: 58 2021: 64 2020: 70 2019: 58 2018: 45 2017: 88 2016: 85 2015: 32 2014: 36 2013: 7 2012: 44 2011: 45 2010: 51 ————— Edit: As we move forward through the rest of the season and look at Sept. 17th+ ACE, these seasons would overtake 2025 if it has no more ACE: 1932, 2005, 2020, and 2024 with 1893, 1896, and 1961 coming very close.

That's great about Jay. I believe they are on the Idny pass, so I'll prolly be making a couple trips this winter. I got the IKON and Indy this season. I'd like to go to Japan this winter. Anyone been there? Any recommendations?

There are perhaps some clues to keep an eye on in the context of this. As whatever happens higher up in the atmosphere is strongly tied to the progression in the troposphere. Namely, keep an eye on what transpires in the north Pacific. There's a great paper on these events and why they occur in both el nino and la nina. I'll post below figure 1 from this paper along with the explanation given for the image. Also of note, some of the recent ensemble runs have been showing some similarities to the precursor 500mb later in the runs. I'll add the 00z EPS from last night after that for example. I suspect the amount of members achieving the ssw have been the ones with a deep north Pacific low in their progression in the proper location. Not saying one happens, only that there seems to be a valid reason for some of those members to be showing it. Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El Niño and La Niña winters? https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012JD017777 Last nights 00z EPS - note this is a 5 day mean