All Activity

3.41” in Havre de Grace. Seemed off but a few nearby PWS show 3” amounts. Not sure I trust it regardless.

1.16" total in the Valley.

Showers will continue into tomorrow. An additional round of showers and thundershowers is possible Friday night and Saturday. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the month with the exception of Friday. Meanwhile daily record and possible monthly record heat could develop for Friday and Saturday in such cities as Redding and Sacramento. June looks to be warmer than normal on the CFSv2. However, just as had been the case for May, the AI guidance is notably cooler than the conventional models. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +25.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.238 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.7° (0.5° below normal).

Today might have the most beneficial rainfall of the year. A steady, light, all-day soaker. 0.70" thus far. 55F

But the worst are "Activists" trying to make a point out there...

You have to realize ACATT .. all they see is cold .. even on a torch model output . So you just laugh and check the confused emoji to signal they are confused

52F temp dropped this afternoon after achieving 56F almost certainly record low max's in the region

Sends a UH swath right through Charles County.....

Right now, it’s not viable for addressing the issue on earth. https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/can-new-nasa-carbon-to-oxygen-conversion-technology-like-moxie-be-used-to-address-climate-change/

besides fusion the other thing that will really help is quantum computing, this should really help with progress solving these problems. I went down the rabbit hole with this and even read about digital immortality, with AI being able to scan human brains and reproduce them for the metaverse.

what is this new machine that will be used on Mars to convert CO2 to O2-- why can't we use that here?

we also need water vapor capture

it's no coincidence, with a stronger SE ridge I expect Gulf Coast landfalls to be more likely and northeast and midatlantic landfalls to be less likely. The 1950s were probably as bad as we will ever get for east coast landfalls north of Florida.

You planning a trip to Kansas?

I think the AQI reached the highest number it can ever be, which is 500. It was like the Dust Bowl meets Mars around here lol.

18z 3km NAM looks intriguing.

Yeah, the heat builds in CA and goes up into Canada. This time of year in 2023 was when we had the record air pollution from the Canadian wildfires. That had to be some if the worst air quality we ever saw.

SPC AC 281926 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon through late Friday evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cyclone will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast Atlantic coast. Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon. Increasing midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. If wave timing and thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

The rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool over the last decade becoming the most extreme since 2019 is largely the result of the record 500mb to surface ridging in that region leading to clear skies and light winds warming the SSTs below. The interesting thing is how deep below the surface the warming extends. While the 500mb pattern can shift for a few months leading slightly cooler SSTs, the SSTs rapidly rebound when the ridge returns like we have seen this spring following a brief winter hiatus. The challenge is that we are adding so much heat to the system evidenced by the record global temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-25, that we don’t really understand why the WPAC has been warming more rapidly than the other parts of the Pacific. So it’s uncertain whether an extreme EPAC warming leading to an El Niño event event even bigger than 23-24 would even shift the STJ for more than a season before the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet takes over again the next year. That’s why my comments were that I would just be grateful to see some semblance of a STJ and benchmark track pattern. Obviously a high end volcanic event could shift the pattern and storm track back colder for a period of time, but it would only be transient until the effects wear off and the warming resumes. Remarkable Changes in the Dominant Modes of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

19/5/3

And the next one-

Up to 0.29" now in my backyard. We now have a rain gauge at out water loading facility, and that one shows 0.30" so pretty even rainfall across my immediate region.

1.76 " currently

thats crazy, how does near 90 degree heat make it that far north and just skip right over us? Is it going due north from the SW right into Canada? 2023 was the year we had those awful sky conditions in June?

I just ride a loop in my neighborhood. There’s one punchy hill that sorta mimics some of the mtb hills I ride. I’ve been doing that more so out of convenience so far this year, but I have experienced a couple of drivers that make me question whether they have a legitimate license.