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The warm start to each month has been interesting to say the least. Its been hot spell followed by a lot of rain/storms to cooler finish.

The chart I posted shows temperature anomaly, while your chart shows temperature. August will rank a little higher on a temperature basis than it will on an anomaly basis because August is a relatively warm month.

With how the NPAC is evolving combined with the signals for ridging to focus more across the Southeast or off the coast, we could be setting up for a well above average at least first half of Fall. This doesn't mean we'll get some cool periods, probably even some pretty cool nights, but the overall theme is going to be quite above.

You forgot the "+9 to +10 will mean we go the other way big time" bargaining

Picked up two pairs of tuned skis today at the shop!

12z operationals appeared to make a coherently warm move en masse on that run, too.

I would have 0 complaints if that happened, would be a needed reset of the W pacific warm pool that a few of us have been talking about here for awhile now

The recurring interesting question for me has been how far east the warm pool will make it. Max SSTs are now sitting at 170-140W, which puts it neatly and completely inside the 3.4 region (and only a few degrees off of as far east as it ever got in '97). Further movement towards the east will increasingly put max SSTs inside Nino 3 at the "expense" of 3.4. If it gets to say, 130W or 120W, cooling will enter 3.4 from the *west* and it may end up stalling 3.4 while still spiking Nino 3. TLDR: This event may get so east-based as to break the measurement benchmark and cause it to systematically understate the event.

Up down the month marches on to the inevitable.

Get to it.

It's a day of mourning here in East Tennessee.

+4 for a day isn’t really a big deal. But +4 for a month is pretty torchy. But really it comes down to standard deviations and the +1.5 or +2 SD numbers aren’t exactly at our fingertips.

Some of those 80s and 90s summers really were endless summers which we dont get anymore nor do we get heat covering the entire country cosst to coast like we did in 1980 and 1988. We always talk about how we dont get coast to coast cold like we did in 1979 but to be fair we dont get coast to coast heat anymore either. Its always heat in one part of the country but not the other now. Also EWR and LGA are most heavily affected by UHI, population density and increased volume of traffic and the resultant pollution from car exhaust. 1980 had the hottest July August combo on record 60 day average over 80 degrees how did both LGA and JFK have far fewer 90 degree days than NYC and EWR? Also it was around this time in the endless summer of 1983 JFK had their latest 100 degree temperature and the last time it happened there in August. One time in July and one time in August there in 1983.

Kinda ironic that Dolly Parton passes and the next named storm is Dolly. Doncha think?

If this one does survive and takes on a name at the same time Dolly passed, that's gonna be kinda eerie.

And last winter we had two big dogs. Can we repeat?

A true southern belle who truly cared about those who struggled and did so much for them unlike our corrupt government

We are talking about the pattern. Isn't the name of this thread mid-long range discussion? The mid to long range looks well above normal.

I'm genuinely thinking of filing a class action lawsuit against the Orioles for retaining our current GM despite overwhelming evidence he is impersonating an actual GM. The lawsuit will also include language that will ask for a recoup for mental and emotional damages that should be on par with Mesothelioma compensation.

RIP to one of the GOATs, and inspiration for one of the great Panic Room creations in history. Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro I'm begging of you Please don't take my snow Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro Please don't take it Just because you can We went all in on 12z's run Of 6 to 12 for everyone With crashing temps Screw jobs for none Now Bob is out And Matt is done You've turned our snow To clouds and sun I punt it all, New England's won Euro I thought about it in my sleep And at your altar now I weep I'm praying, for some snow to keep Euro The false prophet has won again My back is broken as a man I've prayed and prayed But I've taken all I can Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro I'm begging of you Please don't take my snow Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro Please don't take it Just because you can Euro Eurooooooo

Might still be too much +PNA -50dm max for DJFM I'll take the under on. Looks good though!

Subsurface moving back up in response. Surface should follow over the next several days. 1997-98 did not reach this level until mid-Oct. Any forecast that has us close to 82/83 or 97/98 at this point isn't really viable without a significant increase in trades *now*.