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The temps on the Euro could be cause for concern. The gradient between northern Delaware at 16 degrees and the Beaches 60 miles away at 35 is interesting.

If trends are continuing to move it north…that means the High is not as strong as first though.

2-4” tomorrow night 2-4’ Sunday- Tuesday

We are of course focused on snow but there is a crippling ice storm coming for the South - from the Carolinas to Dallas.

Thats worse

What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day

Latest WPC from this afternoon 80% contour through DC for at least a moderate storm. On the WPC site, DC is in the 60% contours for a major event.

Bottom line is that it's 1 run. If this continues through tomorrow then we know we have problems.

December 1989 was the last time I recall such widespread brutal cold across the whole conus. We hit -18 at the peak of that coldwave. When it broke, winter was over.

Single digits as of 7:30pm. Down to 9 in Tamaqua proper. If I don't make a run at zero tonight, down the the valley at my work garage will. It was 6 down there an hour and a half ago.

So much can still change when you're four days out, but there are warning signs that this may not be an all snow event. Not saying anything people don't already know, but something to keep in mind, especially if you are south of CHO to an EZF line and certainly if you are on southside Hampton Roads, those areas are typically the most vulnerable to mixing during these events.

2003 was traumatic for me (in Boston). We planned a PD weekend getaway to Montreal area and I tracked the huge mid-atlantic storm for a week sad I was going to miss the 6-12" fringe targeting SNE. It was only Friday when it became apparent what was going to happen. You know the rest. We sat in Quebec under -20 temps while Boston broke the '78 snowfall record.

Does the significant ice make in the the low country? Looks like some cold rain mixed with some brief freezing rain in Charleston/MB

Bourbon is broken out only for victory. Tonight we open the vodka

I can’t believe no one flagged 12z ensemble member 38. Where has the love gone

I’m ultra cautious 5 days out but trend is pointing possible big un’

ya things are looking up.. minor snowfall tomorrow night.. maybe a biggie later this weekend and another towards the end of next week

I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

Long Island?

won’t have to fall for us since the trees will be on the ground. And like every storm I’ll bust my ass on the porch

i think 15:1 sounds reasonable for the overrunning, if the coastal takes over than those will probably drop to around 12:1 or so! so figure 0.80 liquid on average 12-14 inches

Good news is 2-3” of rain will be great for the drought! Especially after it melts off all the fallen trees

As it departs the pressure gradients should get us some 30moh gusts

A few runs ago the euro snuck in a little bit of sleet , but then backed it down again so I think it’s gonna waiver.