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The biggest issue is widespread drought. It has picked up steam this winter regardless of weather pattern. Reminds me of 17-18 which was so cold at times but the STJ was not there. The other thing is the northern stream is out of sync with the STJ…meaning its vortices are not connecting with STJ impulses. I see some signs of that relenting after the 25th. I am not sure how long that window lasts. Some modeling has Feb holding a SE trough w a PNA ridge. The GOA low is present on some modeling late, but generally that has been a red herring. I still remain optimistic that we see wintry conditions. There is a lot of cold air in modeling right now. I have to think we score with that on the table.

Get that garbage out of here man. Snowy maps only Haha

Mesos seem to agree on a stripe of 2-4” somewhere between Philly and the Poconos tomorrow. The question is where exactly does it set up? I’m feeling pretty good in Allentown but the Poconos could do particularly well because of their elevation.

Did you all see the wreck in Cookeville yesterday on I 40? They had a very heavy squall move through that initially melted, and then froze back causing terrible situation. .

As beautiful as that run was the other night, that 6z run has fully erased that x10. Back to back WTOD. We may need to pull it out after that. Worst nightmare for us.

milder with less qpf

My low was 12 this morning. My high yesterday was 23. Cataloochee has been making snow non stop since 10 PM Wednesday night. The mountain looks awesome and ready for the busy Holiday Weekend!

One of the analogues that I continued to see back in late summer to early fall for this winter was 2013-14. (I think) lol .

Wow pleasant surprise with the overnight guidance. Given the time frame we're entering hopefully those trends are an indication of where we're headed. Definitely want to see the Euro with a bit of a bigger shift at 12z. Still need a bit of work but its doable at this range.

3k Nam closer to reality probably.

It might not be. Euro has 2” and it’s been increasing each run. These are the sneak systems that can ramp up in the last 24 hrs. Let’s bring this one home.

I was just looking through ensembles and thought the same thing. Let's get plenty of rest in the mean time and hope we are tracking something significant in the latter half of the month!

What's the timing for tomorrow morning's snow arrival?

One at a time! Lol

Like steaks in a crummy restaurant...a bit overdone.

That contributed to that 2014-2015 season being one of the best that I’ve seen since we moved to E TN in 2011. That year we exceeded 20in total snowfall, but it didn’t really get going until late Jan and ramped up in Feb. and into March.

some of the other meso's last night also hinted at this. Will be interesting to see what they say today. Could be a sneak advisory level event with the timing especially upper bucks/lehigh valley by the delaware river.

HRRR is always playing catch up

Does that mean it is right for Sunday too? lol

Will need advisories soon if trend continues into 18z runs and also euro and ukmet hold or get better

Gotta hand it to the 2 Canadians. They've had this threat for days with only minor adjustments.

Enormous potential, but I'm not celebrating yet, it was just last year we had and epic 2 week stretch modeled with 20" + on all ensembles.. I think 3-6" verified for most over 2 weeks..

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

I think it can show some trends a bit more consistently (just eyeballing)... but it does seem to overso things

12z NAM is going all in for interior areas.