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This fits my progression for latter December into mid January perfectly...my only issue is I feel that -NAO/-AO in mid January will get pushed back, as I think that will be +TNH post reflection.

Now the question is will this be one of those warmups where it shows 70+ highs 2 weeks out but winds up getting walked back to the 50s once it's in range?

I wonder if he's talking about Wolfie?

Just started snowing steady here. 30.2 degrees.

It's your moment

I never had much hopes for this one. Downhill trajectory across a dozen+ mountains to my west doesn't work on the lee side basically every time. If there was any hint of a southern connection I would have been more interested but pure NS running downhill always runs out of gas by the time it hits the blue ridge.... and I'm even east of that... a clean inch would be a major win for my yard.

Gotta love the NAM. Such a predictably awful model lol. When they gonna retire the damn thing?

Someone in the valley is gonna get a big surprise. There’s a feeder band that’s lined up perfectly towards Knoxville. .

Ewr has fallen below freezing meaning each of the first 11 days of the month will have had lows below 32. The streak should go through at least day 17 before the moderation begins. Looking at other cold Decembers in the past 25 years I can't find another year that matched that feat

Light mix in Powell

Ah, ok, Yeah, I hugging the 12z suite tightly

The first wave trended sw and I ended up with a paltry 0.5".

3k Nam and still snowing

I'd jump at 1-3" at this point.

I’m being delusional. If nothing has ran since, it’s the best guidance we’ve got still. awaiting my 5” storm

?

This might even be more. Maybe higher ratios ?

if we could push this north by 30 miles everyone in this forum could get 2-4 and be happy

Nice

Can’t develop a closed 850 low. Be happy with 1-2”past the canal.

Yeah we get an initial push but that really deeper lift is just getting shunted SE. We need a little more vort energy to put a kink in the flow to try and nudge this just a bit north. But even the initial fronto gets a general 1-3”. Guess that’s better than nothing.

There’s no long range hope until at least 5-7 days. We needed a warm up so that fun times can start again in January during the peak of the season. .

I’m still hugging the 12z EURO. Pretty sure no models have ran since

NAM is a good bit drier...still has same coverage tho