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he said the trough not the colder than normal cold air supply in Canada which will be tapped into epecially from back door fronts down here polar vortex is being shoved south by the strat warming event through at least March

And... poof. Snow's all gone. I'm good with spring now.

Ya, it’s all Cool. I don’t think the chances are all done though. I think we see a trend back at some point. But my truck is reading 72 currently …so whatever.

Fair question - should have been clearer. I'm talking snow totals over the next 10-15 days, regardless of the individual storm threats. I saw some ensemble info in the TN sub-forum a few days ago, showing some big dogs for our area. Of course, that's good and bad...bad because the ensemble mean can be skewed by a couple of outliers. 6z GEFS from 3/7:

Interesting... SPC AC 091925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development. ...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast. ...OH Valley... Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026

In reality it will probably be back and forth with cold and some warmth

Actually 12z was decent too in longer range but it started to cave on 3/16 then

12z AI OP was still good, but then the ensembles sort of went away from that. That was mid aftn for the ensembles. Then 18z cancelled. Once it went to the EPS and did not waver, I figured the weenie AI run was wrong.

He posted that after the 12z run yesterday…that’s my point.

I think yesterdays 6z Euro AI was the last favorable run

as @donsutherland1 said, there's nothing to lock the trough in place, so you can toss these runs.

I literally crapped myself when I saw the 6pm news showing some car dealership in Dracut and the cars buried. I was so pissed.

This was yesterday afternoon…not the night before.

Once a tree blooms, it will rebloom rapidly. Post-bloom trees must leaf to survive. .

The runs the night before were. Then went flaccid. EPS was not on board.

Oh yeah - bring it. Enough with chasing highs of 43 and being mad when something anomolous invariably fails…

73 in fallston. Brilliant sunshine. I’ve run the analysis and thia whips massive fog and dank gray atmosphere and 41 degrees all to hell.

73 degrees here right now. With the sunshine it's perfect weather.

EPS around these parts still has colder temps in the longer range - you don't have to include a pic of yourself in your post

Close in come back probably gonna be the way this goes …if it happens.

Actually yesterday was when you said AI was Full Mast.

I was starting to feel next week until yesterday. AI quietly laying eggs recently.

Bed-Stuy, Brooklyn Grade: A 47.3” of snow, 2 major snowstorms including a blizzard, plenty of cold and saw thundersnow for the first time in 8 years. Would love to get to 50” but I doubt it

Outies became innies now.