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Pretty sure there is Wednesday’s furnace to contend. Been telegraphed by guidance for a week now.

Whereas there can be a lag, the diagrams by phase are based on concurrent temps. So, phase 8 being the coldest in Dec is based on temps during phase 8 being the coldest of any phase rather than with a lag.

0.31” overnight Imby/Columbia. November total to date 1.20”

Farther north (Jersey Highlands) we had 7 events of 18-24" from March 1956 thru February 1961, the greatest run of big dumps I've seen anywhere. Five of those were cold powder, with temps low teens to low 20s. Closest is probably Nov 2014 thru March 2018, with 6 storms 15.5-21" plus 2 with 13". A shorter run, Feb 2007 thru Feb 2009, had 4 events 15.5-24.5". Oddly, the snowiest of those 3 winters, 07-08, had nothing over 12.5" and ony 2 in double digits.

The can be a lag. I know Roundy has said such a common mistake is to think MJO phase correlation automatically or immediately shows up. Both are a mistake to think.

Yeah my sister is there with my niece. Definitely wetter than I expected and feel bad. Terrible forecast.

No its not Stop posting nonsense

12/9-14/91 also was a mild strong phase 8 in the E US though it cooled afterward:

Euro and GFS both have a broad, highly amplified western trough for the end of the month. Far too early for specifics especially lately, other than to say it "should do something somewhere," from to to . Ceiling might be limited by a tendency for a positively tilted ejection with the stronger flow hanging on the back side, and of course thermodynamics this time of year. Although after days like February 8, 2024 I never count out tornado threats based solely on T/Td values, it looks like this setup would need colder temperatures aloft than what's currently being depicted verbatim to realize adequate instability.

Steady rain for the parade in Plymouth today. I'm in Sandwich and have had a decent amount.

Looks like 10/10 in 2011 is currently the earliest.

A little after 1030am and we sun

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

This why I don’t look at that thread. Can’t cancel it if there was a chance for big snow that disappeared if I never knew it existed to begin with.

Interesting., It’s been a nice cool fall overall.

consensus is we aren't having much of a winter here this year, so there, i'm glad the experts got it off their chests.....and actually haven't seen much of one since 2021, which was pretty snowy, and seems ignored around here. i guess there were other things in the news....the local reservoir is down to a trickle, though it is not used for drinking anymore and is scheduled for dredging and redevelopment. that would be the clark reservoir, subject of much controversy these days.

.2” rain for me overnight

We lived about 25 miles northeast from Long Valley. My maternal grandparents had a house in LV (primary home was Glen Ridge) and we would make frequent visits to mow the 3/4-acre lawn (1950s-60s), usually finding 2-3 yellowjacket nests per mowing. Occasionally we'd stop for a feast at Larison's Turkey Farm, long since closed.

.25" here.

.26 meh

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.

After Dec 2 the pattern has a 2013 look to it if it comes to fruition. Credit to a met on another page.

even russia is not as cold as it was 30 years ago.

To your point...DEC, 2010. First half of DEC was in low-amp MJO phases 3,4,5,6 (blue line is DEC): Here are the 2m Temps for DEC 1-20: Certainly other factors can override MJO.