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It’s all relative my friend morning low was 20. You know that felt amazing on your morning run.

Low of 33 this morning. Snow is melting slowly.

To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south. Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west. Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php

Eh, it has a tiny dusting but it’s been going the wrong direction the last few runs in how much precip makes it over the Apps

The only downside to this map is it might take 12 hours or more to fall.

He’s been vigilant for PD3 for 23 years now

Get this within the NAM’s wheelhouse at hour 3, and this place will explode.

Apparently the CPC agrees, considering they are now using RONI as the official measure of ENSO intensity. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

I'm skeptical with amount of sunshine peeking thru and current temps for much in the way of snow----limited window for precip changeover. I have jumped to 44 here near Winston Salem.

Wouldn't it be a bit unusual to see a 970s low on the DE coast in a SWFE?

I had a nice "mild" overnight, but it seems like instead of the rapid after sunrise warm up that I get many mornings, we're going to slow roll to our high for today.

This event UNEQUIVOCALLY lived up to the thread title for once!

Never forget.

Yup. Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now.

If we do get another round of winter the MJO forecast points to around the 21st or after so we shall see

Well, that would be the second-largest event of the winter here. What's the snow depth out there? Heading out there this weekend to do some sledding at Blackwater.

Warms the heart. Positive vibes simmering

Thaw today? With highs in 20’s

JB is on storm watch for our PD3.

Got a whopping 1.2" here

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

It’s gon snow!

I hope this system misses us. Our infrastructure cannot handle another beat down like last night's.

Being pretty sure or confident on any long term weather pattern is an oxymoron. Knowing how complex these things are, statements like these serve no purpose and are not productive.