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Chubbs, I did try to expand your manual breakpoint detection process by asking AI to look at surrounding stations and identify "islands" where multiple stations are moving together. I explored various settings, such as the minimum amount of synchronized temperatures before declaring an island, minimum stations to make an island, rules for stations leaving an island and new stations joining, and new islands forming. The geographical area grew too large, pulling in Allentown etc. It will work, but its not a clear demonstration of using semi-local stations to identify breaks. However, Reading and West Chester do synchronize from 1929 to 1960 and make what looks like a solid reference against which breaks can be detected. I have not looked at the individual breaks, but these breaks should be those that would be found by your approach. Edit: this does not rule out the case where Reading and West Chester have overlapping breaks.

Fairly decent WWB is kicking off,could possible last into Sept.Subsurface has been expanding where the +10C is at,hard to believe this wont hit +11C from DWKW.

The 2 historically closest analogs for 26-27 are 97 - 98 and 15 - 16 at approx +2.2. They were both wet but snowfall was wild!! 97 - 98 was a western highlands snow delight with nearly 40 inches at Staunton/Blacksburg. Huge disappointment at Winchester and D.C. with less than 1 inch. 15 - 16 found 26 inches at my place, Winchester 32 and D.C. 22. More than +2.0 is highly favored to be wet but correct AO and NAO blocking is important to get cold air into the mix. We just can't know at this time. We should know by March 15.

September has been the sunniest month here, and August the 2nd most. (Least sunny is Dec, 2nd Nov - to no one's surprise.)

I just had a big landscaping job finished that included a walkway and patio made of flagstone. It's gorgeous!!

Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.

I agree with what Flash said above.Just because its warm dont mean someone cant score this winter,In .I.E the strong 97=98 NINO the Cumberland got blasted by a wet snow storm around 20"@John would know more about that,i wasnt living in TN at that time https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19980203

My daughter goes to Drexel and loves taking the train home. Even has started to visit other friends in NYC. Great way to travel, and usually the tickets cover the cost of gas/tools/parking and the aggravation of driving.

Same. Drove 45 minutes to install polymeric sand to a beautiful paver project. I'm glad I checked radar just in case. Yup. Rain was incoming lol

Getting a strong storm yet again

Better than any winter crap, no doubt.

That’s the acceleration of the water cycle at work. So we see more swings between drought and flooding. I agree that flooding is more damaging for regions like ours and the Midwest. But the West is a different story. There they get extreme droughts leading to wildfires that are frequently more dangerous than rainfall flooding is in our area and the Midwest. Plus the smoke from the fires creates air pollution for the entire CONUS. They can also get serious floods from time to time especially in the burn scar areas.

I felt 3 sprinkles about 9. Nothing since.

Wait until you walk her down the aisle. About the hardest day in the life of a girl dad. Happy but sad. And so final.

You don't need to worry about them. They'll be okay, and if they're driving distance or on an Amtrak line (Go Hoos!) then you can always be there if they need it. Besides, I've been told most people love college! I myself thought it wasn't quite worth the hype, but even then I'm doing well, and I'm not anything special so your kids will be fine too.

Glad the drought is getting chipped away little by little.

For the first run in many days, the UKMET (12Z) has no Atlantic basin TC.

My genuine advice is to leave twitter. I got a "brick", which is a horribly overpriced product that locks your phone from accessing apps/websites until you physically retap it, and I went from 15 hours a week on twitter to maybe an hour if a primary election is going on. The dramatic quality of life improvement I've seen is honestly sad. Everyone knows that social media abuses your worst insecurities, desires, and thoughts to keep you scrolling, but you don't realize just how much it effects you mentally. Think about it. After scrolling online how often are you happier for doing so? Imagine how much more time you have afterwards. I've read four books recently with my "new" time. As for the specific comments you've put forth I would argue that social media is not reality and these stories are generated as outrage bait. You will not find a healthy way to process things from social media, that is akin to asking a +NAO, -PNA, -PDO pattern to produce a snowstorm, it just won't happen.

Hooray, a sprinkle!

I got .15" yesterday, heavy stuff missed to the south and east.