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That post was from November 21st as an example of how quickly things changed(back to cold) in modeling. I was commenting at the time about a standing wave which never materialized in reality. I will have some comments hopefully this morning about the possible upcoming pattern change to a ridge over the East. And yes, I do think it is probably a pattern change which will last through the last ten days of December and through most of January....but that isn't a slam dunk just yet, but more of a strong likelihood.

Euro shifted slightly north with the precip. 1-3 inches is a good call. Nice little event before it warms up

I feel the weekend we will see a snow event marking the start of the pattern change to warmer weather. .

Do like I did with him and a few others. I just blocked him. He won't stop and he will not be flagged. J

Regionwide in the next region south of us….

Troll should be 1 posted

Sign me up as well.

Took this pic yesterday afternoon when it was snowing. The creek is freezing over. Imperssive for this time of year.

06z euro improved again after the regression at 00z. I don’t think this one has a high ceiling though. There’s just not enough room. But it could be a solid advisory event maybe.

Still looks good for DC

Well, I guess things went south overnight. Sucks.

looking at the eps this morning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE, HOLSTON'S WEATHER EMPORIUM, Mossy Grove, TN 6:30 AM EST ****YE OLEN CLIPPER WARNING*** * WHAT...Light to occasionally moderate snow. Snow accumulations 1 to 4 inches, greatest across higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 7 mph will produce pretty sights. * WHERE...Eastern KY, SW VA, and possibly Bristol, TN and Mountain City, TN The greatest additional accumulations will focus across the higher terrain of the High Knob and peaks on the KY and NA border above 2500 feet. * WHEN...Starting late this evening * IMPACTS...Plan on some snow covered and slippery road conditions as well as the comfortable ease of a clipper's accumulations. Hot chocolate is recommended for these trying times. SUMMARY...SW VA and eastern KY is in danger of getting hit by the first traditional clipper to hold together all the way to the southern Apps region in what seems to me like 7.5 million years. Some of the Hi Res models clip extreme NE TN too. Pretty much all the Hi Res models show the same thing, even the ever stingy NBM.

The 6z Euro is perfect for my backyard

Gusty winds and flurries here this morning. Peak gust was 41. Saw that Camp David gusted to 53 overnight. 32°

I grew up in Long Beach on the South Shore and we only needed the AC a handful of times back in the 1970s. First for the August 1973 heatwave and then the July 1977 heatwave. We gradually increased the AC usage during the 1980s and especially the early 1990s. By the time we reached 2010, we had three ACs running much of the time compared to only one in the 1970s. Plus there was a rapid expansion of central AC even in Long Beach when it was a rarity near the shore in the 1970s. This is one of the reasons that HVAC is such a good career opportunity for people due to the increased demand in a warming world. As for the UHI issue, there was a 10°+ difference between NYC during 1896 heatwave and the surrounding countryside. This mostly occurs with summer heatwaves where the city absorbs more heat during the day. It also occurs during calm and clear nights with radiational cooling. The growth of skyscrapers in Western Brooklyn and Queens certainly changes the character of the neighborhood and of course you can see the change in the skyline since around 2004. But prior to that that area had densely packed lower rise buildings built of bricks. These new high rises are mainly glass and steel which absorb significantly less solar energy than bricks do. Plus a cluster of tall buildings will create a big area of shade which prevents the streets and sidewalks from absorbing as much heat as they did with smaller buildings with less shadows. The warmest parts of NYC are in Queens near spots like Corona were small to medium size brick structures dominate. So changing from lower rise brick and concrete structures to skyscrapers may not change the UHI much in Western Brooklyn and Queens to really be noticeable to residents there. That’s why I said a drop in the bucket to what was already one of the largest UHI zones in North America. The rural and suburban areas have warmed at a similar rate to places like Corona Queens over the years. So this is why both areas require more summer AC usage than they did during the 1970s. My guess is that the higher dewpoints and maybe stronger winds are probably why a rural spot like the Charlotteburg Reservoir has seen a steeper increase in low temperatures than LGA since 1981.

Looks good now for a 2-3 inches of snow from DC to Philly up I-95. Just seems like the potential rug pull is high with this one.

That 0z Euro was a parade of snow storms for NNE.

Another 3” overnight on the car, around 6” for the event.

Whatever we do get Saturday night is wiped out mid week next week unfortunately

currently 36/28, partly cloudy, occasional north breeze

So this is NOT our moment

All overnight ensembles still have it so we are good for now

Gfs is still a miss but the icon, nam and rgem shifted more to the northwest. Euro up next. Plenty of time for shifts

Always... well usually.