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Wonderdog

Mid November Pretend Snowstorm

571 posts in this topic

any stats to back this up?

Just trying to relate in a friendly way that my experience with around DC is that when we get a rare sizable snow in November the follwing winters tend not be so great.

Edited-My memory was really 87-88 which had a decent 13.5" after the event so normal.

Nov 78 had 3.1" and then the monster 1979 snowstorm. 1967 Nov had 6.9" and 14.5" followed so that's good then 1955 had 2.3 with 9" following and 1955 6.7" with 11.3" following.

I am glad you asked it.

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You can look it up if you want to disprove it.

Just trying to relate in a friendly way that my experience with around DC is that when we get a rare sizable snow in November the follwing winters tend not be so great.

I looked into it further and you raised a good point.

For DCA after a 2.0"+ snowfall in Nov going back to 1950 the following winters are mostly at normal snowfall levels, or slightly below, the rest of the way. 87-88 had nice 13" January total after the big Veterans Day 11". Dec and Feb were way low 87-88 but still a nice winter.

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I wouldn't jump ship yet. Still 6 days out, models can lose it and bring it back. I think the likely scenario may be a moderate snow event Hartford providence boston corridor. Impressive cold either way so kind of a win win

I hope Matt doesn't see this one  

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I think the Euro will hold and at least have a storm (most likely not an I-95 snowstorm though)

 

oh yay

 

*** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM!

** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=601969416516987&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1

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oh yay

 

*** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM!

** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=601969416516987&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1

2 days ago he was saying there is no chance this will happen, now he is honking like a MECS is coming  :facepalm: .

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Now hear me out.....

 

But honestly...I would like to see the GFS show this as well.   

This place is hilarious we always dream that the king shows it, when it does we then need the GFS to show it as well to make ourselves feel good. You know with 90% certainty it is not happening even if the Goofus shows it.

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Anxiously awaiting the 00Z EC ensemble member snowfall output.  This is where I'd like to see a trend that would be our friend.  For those keeping score (strictly for DCA, the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   ??                                 ??                              ??                              ??

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Anxiously awaiting the 00Z EC ensemble member snowfall output.  This is where I'd like to see a trend that would be our friend.  For those keeping score (strictly for DCA, the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   ??                                 ??                              ??                              ??

 

 

Great great data points.  Good stuff.

 

I wish I knew how to create graphic out put so we could make a time series for our major cities from ensemble spread like you did above in numerical form.

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Anxiously awaiting the 00Z EC ensemble member snowfall output.  This is where I'd like to see a trend that would be our friend.  For those keeping score (strictly for DCA, the number of members with at least 1, 4, 6, and 10 inches total cumulative snowfall):

 

                                           At least 1”                  At least 4”                  At least 6”                  At least 10”

 

 

00Z 11/07/13 Run                   21                                12                               7                                3

12Z 11/07/13 Run                   26                                14                               9                                5

00Z 11/08/13 Run                   ??                                 ??                              ??                              ??

Like the way this is presented.    Now you're stuck doing this for the entire winter.   Congrats.

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The Euro has many times proven that it does not need support from other models.  This situation reminds me very much of Sandy and the Boxing Day storm when mets were saying on TV that 11 models had it going out to sea but only one has it coming inland so it isn't going to happen.  Yeah.  Sure it would be nice to have other models showing it, but this is how it works so very often.  The Euro shows it close to the coast and the other models have it WAY out to sea.  Typical actually.

 

Now hear me out.....

 

But honestly...I would like to see the GFS show this as well.   

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Excellent. If you average the GFS and the Euro, we get 9-12. Done and done. Fast forward to Wednesday.

Always amazed when the models are this different 4-5 days out. That's a massive difference between no storm for pretty much anyone and a historic storm for a lot of people.

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Remember Sandy?

 

Excellent. If you average the GFS and the Euro, we get 9-12. Done and done. Fast forward to Wednesday. Always amazed when the models are this different 4-5 days out. That's a massive difference between no storm for pretty much anyone and a historic storm for a lot of people.

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