Winter 15-16 Discussion

[Cold Rain]

Honestly that is my fear that we get a cool, dreary, wet winter. The last two years we've been able to score some wintery precip without a negative NAO, but I think it will be very crucial for us this year.

We should not count on a -NAO in winter. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, it's evasive. On the other hand, here's the CPC NAO chart. We have no problem getting a nice, stable NAO during the summer. Look since mid June:

[FallsLake]

Your right, it's been like a see-saw with a fat summer kid and a skinny winter kid. Maybe we get lucky this year and get a rare period where blocking and the southern stream come together for a two to three week period.   

[Cold Rain]

Your right, it's been like a see-saw with a fat summer kid and a skinny winter kid. Maybe we get lucky this year and get a rare period where blocking and the southern stream come together for a two to three week period.

Hahahaha

[PisgahNCWeather]

Marietta you are poo pooing on the analogs yet you are going with the analogs for this winter. I don't understand your reasoning. Robert doesn't hype cold and snowy every year. I am sure he sees things that would indicate the cold. Either way it is very early for any solid forecasts as SST's are not likely to be the same once fall rolls around.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The CPC maps I posted have a very heavy el nino(ish) depiction. That would favor your thoughts on where the heaviest rains would predominate. I'm actually surprised they showed as much below normal temp probabilities for the SE. In years past they've trimmed back on the extent across the south for upcoming el nino patterns. --> We also have to be careful to associate the below temps to ice/snow. As many of us know 33 and rain is still below normal (...for most).

I learned my lesson last winter on associating below normal temps to ice and snow. I had below normal temps and maybe about 10 snowflakes all winter. I don't ever recall having so much cold air produce so little snow.

[frazdaddy]

The CPC maps I posted have a very heavy el nino(ish) depiction. That would favor your thoughts on where the heaviest rains would predominate. I'm actually surprised they showed as much below normal temp probabilities for the SE. In years past they've trimmed back on the extent across the south for upcoming el nino patterns. --> We also have to be careful to associate the below temps to ice/snow. As many of us know 33 and rain is still below normal (...for most).        

True and as much as we don't like it. 33 and rain is close and will work out sometimes so bring it on! 

[downeastnc]

Meh last years "analog predictions" kinda cured me of worrying/guessing about what kind of winter we are going to get, I kinda prefer winters like last year anyways tolerable except for 4-5 weeks when we get true prolonged winter type weather.

[griteater]

Meh last years "analog predictions" kinda cured me of worrying/guessing about what kind of winter we are going to get, I kinda prefer winters like last year anyways tolerable except for 4-5 weeks when we get true prolonged winter type weather.

 

The term 'analog' has somehow turned into the wicked witch of the east with seasonal forecasting.  When you think about it though, analogs are used in all types of forecasting.  If SPC puts out a high risk convective outlook, it's because they are seeing a setup that has produced severe weather in prior cases in which those same conditions existed (analogs)...high shear, high instability, moisture, lift for storms...or it's like knowing that SW flow (analog 'x') tends to produce more showers and storms in the SC upstate during summer than does NW flow (analog 'y')

 

All forecasting is difficult, and what deems a forecast a success obviously varies based on the item being forecasted and the timeframe...a day or two for severe wx vs. 1-6 months for seasonal forecasting.

 

But I get the notion that some, maybe many, find seasonal forecasting uninteresting or a waste of time.  Personally, I'm drawn to it because of 1) winter interests, and 2) it's challenging and noone has perfected it (to say the least).

[calculus1]

The term 'analog' has somehow turned into the wicked witch of the east with seasonal forecasting.  When you think about it though, analogs are used in all types of forecasting...

 

Good post, grit!  Well said.

[downeastnc]

The term 'analog' has somehow turned into the wicked witch of the east with seasonal forecasting.  When you think about it though, analogs are used in all types of forecasting.  If SPC puts out a high risk convective outlook, it's because they are seeing a setup that has produced severe weather in prior cases in which those same conditions existed (analogs)...high shear, high instability, moisture, lift for storms...or it's like knowing that SW flow (analog 'x') tends to produce more showers and storms in the SC upstate during summer than does NW flow (analog 'y')

 

All forecasting is difficult, and what deems a forecast a success obviously varies based on the item being forecasted and the timeframe...a day or two for severe wx vs. 1-6 months for seasonal forecasting.

 

But I get the notion that some, maybe many, find seasonal forecasting uninteresting or a waste of time.  Personally, I'm drawn to it because of 1) winter interests, and 2) it's challenging and noone has perfected it (to say the least).

 

I do think the process has merit in some cases,.....however so far predicting the upcoming winter based on them hasn't turned out so well......especially last year when there seemed to be widespread consensus that it was going to be widespread historic...

 

Of all the types of weather I like to follow, snow and cold has over the years moved from first to last, I just don't get as wrapped up in it anymore. Anything less than a foot is just meh to me, don't get me wrong I love to see it and enjoy it when it happens but if it isn't looking like a major hit I wont care as much. Give me severe storms and canes any day.

[Brick Tamland]

Strong El Niño winters around here are usually very wet but not cold. As others have said the STJ tends to just overwhelm everything. I've also heard that -NAOs are actually not favored during strong Nino's. That said after all the failed anal logs from last year I have a hard time putting any faith in them.

No surprise Wxsouth is already on the cold and snow train. I would expect nothing less from a person who is a hype peddler.

 

Almost all mets who did a long range forecast for winter were calling for a big winter with above average snow and above average number of storms here. It was the most consensus I have ever seen for a big winter here since I have been on these boards. February is the only thing that saved us from being below average. WxSouth was not the only one that missed it.

[mackerel_sky]

Almost all mets who did a long range forecast for winter were calling for a big winter with above average snow and above average number of storms here. It was the most consensus I have ever seen for a big winter here since I have been on these boards. February is the only thing that saved us from being below average. WxSouth was not the only one that missed it.

It's ok, this upcoming winter is on track to be historic, just like last winter!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It's ok, this upcoming winter is on track to be historic, just like last winter!

last year was historic for my area, but in a bad way. I saw more snow during the 2011-12 winter than I saw last winter. And I only saw about 20 flakes in the 2011-12 winter ! I don't ever recall a winter with as little snow as last winter and I've lived here a very long time !

[mackerel_sky]

last year was historic for my area, but in a bad way. I saw more snow during the 2011-12 winter than I saw last winter. And I only saw about 20 flakes in the 2011-12 winter ! I don't ever recall a winter with as little snow as last winter and I've lived here a very long time !

Yeah, last year historically sucked winter wise! I had more snow on Nov 1st, that I did the whole rest of the winter, combined!

[packbacker]

Almost all mets who did a long range forecast for winter were calling for a big winter with above average snow and above average number of storms here. It was the most consensus I have ever seen for a big winter here since I have been on these boards. February is the only thing that saved us from being below average. WxSouth was not the only one that missed it.

 

But it was a still a good winter, it did suck having to wait until February but we were just above average for snow.  Historically mod/strong/super Nino's are very good for our area. For reference weak Nino's we average about 5" of snow per season and mod/strong/super we average 8".  Of the 11 mod/strong/super 3 were duds (1998, 1992, 1964) and the other 8 averaged 10" per year.  Assuming we get atleast a moderate Nino it's about all you can hope for in our area this far out.

[Brick Tamland]

But it was a still a good winter, it did suck having to wait until February but we were just above average for snow.  Historically mod/strong/super Nino's are very good for our area. For reference weak Nino's we average about 5" of snow per season and mod/strong/super we average 8".  Of the 11 mod/strong/super 3 were duds (1998, 1992, 1964) and the other 8 averaged 10" per year.  Assuming we get atleast a moderate Nino it's about all you can hope for in our area this far out.

 

It was average. The snow all came in February. That saved us. But it was not close to being a widespread blockbuster winter for the southeast with multiple events like many mets predicted.

[Isopycnic]

It's ok, this upcoming winter is on track to be historic, just like last winter!

Hi$toric 

[CherokeeGA]

Meh last years "analog predictions" kinda cured me of worrying/guessing about what kind of winter we are going to get, I kinda prefer winters like last year anyways tolerable except for 4-5 weeks when we get true prolonged winter type weather.

 

Same for me.

 

Especially if this Nino stays as strong as they say it might.. there are so few analogs and truly statistically significant years with good data available that what few there are become basically meaningless.  "The three other times in recorded history that this happened..." isn't good enough to base any expectation on.  Dozens of times, I'll listen.  Hundreds of times, with consistently similar outcomes?  I'll really listen.  But not when I can count them on one hand.

 

Every year is its own snowflake, so to speak, and analogs will only get you so far, no matter how much you want to believe in them.  I'm going into this one expecting 0".  If we do get anything it'll be nice, then.  Meanwhile, we're making plans to retire further north, where we'll get snow every year.

[Cold Rain]

Hi$toric 

 

Hahaha!  Awe$ome.

[mackerel_sky]

Hahaha! Awe$ome.

Speaking of $, shouldn't we be starting to hear rumblings from the great and powerful JB, on how it will be a historic winter for the NE, and everyone from DC to ME, will be at 200% of normal snowfall!

I'm personally waiting on the wooly worm and persimmon seeds, before I throw my official forecast out there! I think last year, someone saw a few all black worms and that means no snow, so they nailed it!

[Met1985]

The term 'analog' has somehow turned into the wicked witch of the east with seasonal forecasting. When you think about it though, analogs are used in all types of forecasting. If SPC puts out a high risk convective outlook, it's because they are seeing a setup that has produced severe weather in prior cases in which those same conditions existed (analogs)...high shear, high instability, moisture, lift for storms...or it's like knowing that SW flow (analog 'x') tends to produce more showers and storms in the SC upstate during summer than does NW flow (analog 'y')

All forecasting is difficult, and what deems a forecast a success obviously varies based on the item being forecasted and the timeframe...a day or two for severe wx vs. 1-6 months for seasonal forecasting.

But I get the notion that some, maybe many, find seasonal forecasting uninteresting or a waste of time. Personally, I'm drawn to it because of 1) winter interests, and 2) it's challenging and noone has perfected it (to say the least).

Great post grit! Trying to nail down winter is always fun and exciting. It's sometimes cool to get schooled by mother nature sometimes.

[LithiaWx]

Almost all mets who did a long range forecast for winter were calling for a big winter with above average snow and above average number of storms here. It was the most consensus I have ever seen for a big winter here since I have been on these boards. February is the only thing that saved us from being below average. WxSouth was not the only one that missed it.

There were mets who didn't go all crazy with the historic talk, some even nailed the winter. Mr. Bob over in the TV forum was dead on with what we ended up with. Nrgjeff was another met who did very well. Blogger mets have become hype peddlers, it's actually pretty terrible, basically selling yourself and your profession out for money.

It's basically entertainment and if people want to pay for that more power to them. If there was ever a winter to go not all cold and snowy this would be the one. Yet here we are looking at forecasts year after year being the same, cold and snowy.

What winter thread would be complete without my pessimism and criticism of some well known forecasters? I hope this winter is a blockbuster for all of us but that is wish casting at this point. There is very little evidence we are headed that direction. Odds favor a dud but as last winter proved the more than likely outcome isn't always what we get.

Cheers!

[Cold Rain]

^ Last year was actually a good year to go cold and snowy, if ever there was a year to do that. That being said, there usually tends to be a cold bias from pay service blogs. Not all of them and not always, but it seems to lean in that direction. I agree about this year though. I'd be skeptical of a cold winter forecast. Even if winter turns out warm, the risk of a big winter storm is elevated, IMO.

[Brick Tamland]

I think when it comes to winter here it is really just up in the air and anyone's guess as to what will really happen. The long range predictions are about useless and no more than a lucky guess if right.

[mackerel_sky]

There were mets who didn't go all crazy with the historic talk, some even nailed the winter. Mr. Bob over in the TV forum was dead on with what we ended up with. Nrgjeff was another met who did very well. Blogger mets have become hype peddlers, it's actually pretty terrible, basically selling yourself and your profession out for money.

It's basically entertainment and if people want to pay for that more power to them. If there was ever a winter to go not all cold and snowy this would be the one. Yet here we are looking at forecasts year after year being the same, cold and snowy.

What winter thread would be complete without my pessimism and criticism of some well known forecasters? I hope this winter is a blockbuster for all of us but that is wish casting at this point. There is very little evidence we are headed that direction. Odds favor a dud but as last winter proved the more than likely outcome isn't always what we get.

Cheers!

Nrgjeff absolutely nailed the storm in February ! He said watch the warm nose, and people ignored him and were gooing all over the snow maps and even GSP had us at 5-7 inches at go time! We got an inch of sleet and 8 snowflakes! Mad respect to Jeff!

[Cold Rain]

Speaking of $, shouldn't we be starting to hear rumblings from the great and powerful JB, on how it will be a historic winter for the NE, and everyone from DC to ME, will be at 200% of normal snowfall!

I'm personally waiting on the wooly worm and persimmon seeds, before I throw my official forecast out there! I think last year, someone saw a few all black worms and that means no snow, so they nailed it!

Wooly worms...womp womp! I think JB is already hinting at a cold easy.

[LithiaWx]

Nrgjeff absolutely nailed the storm in February ! He said watch the warm nose, and people ignored him and were gooing all over the snow maps and even GSP had us at 5-7 inches at go time! We got an inch of sleet and 8 snowflakes! Mad respect to Jeff!

Him and Bob are really talented.

[griteater]

Same for me.

 

Especially if this Nino stays as strong as they say it might.. there are so few analogs and truly statistically significant years with good data available that what few there are become basically meaningless....

 

Sample size is an issue, no doubt.  However, there are stark differences between the pattern yielded by a Strong El Nino / +PDO vs. one with a Strong La Nina / -PDO, and there's a physical mechanism driving the difference - http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/how-el-nino-influences-our-weather/1247/.  The ENSO and PDO state don't account for everything, but they provide a framework from which to begin.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Analogs are nothing more than a hedging tool. I think some folks think of them as too black and white. No 2 years will ever be the exact same no matter how similar with various indices. 

 

Some years are easier than others. ENSO is by far the best long lead tool but only when it is mod-strong. CPC is notorious for going straight enso climo at long leads when the signal is strong enough. Their recent maps are no surprise. They would never do anything different. Weak or neutral enso events are much more unpredictable and muddy. CPC will usually broad brush equal chance with just a few (very small) select areas being highlighted with temps/precip. A coin flip is a good call a lot of times imo. 

 

If analogs really held the keys to accurate long lead forecasting, computer models would kill it. But we all know how well the CFS2/Euro SIPS/JAMSTEC etc do. Hit and miss.

 

The SCI/SCE has gone through some pretty intense criticism the last few years. Personally, I wouldn't expect anything to have long lead accuracy beyond a reasonable %. The science behind the index is sound but variability will always cause years to bust. It could nail it this year. We'll have to wait and see and let the chips fall. 

 

The only thing that bothered me with Cohen this past year was how he spun justifying his work with the cold east and MW. I didn't see the connection at all. The methodology behind his work and the mechanism for delivering cold to NA was basically completely absent. Right for the wrong reasons. Just like many other long lead forecasters. 

 

I love reading everyone's (pros and amateurs) forecasts in the fall but banking on anything absolute is fools gold. It's all just a big hedge with plenty of risk. This year however is probably one of the easier years to guess at precip patterns. I would be pretty shocked if the southern tier of the entire US is drier than normal. Temp patterns are awful tough to sign your name on. Extreme cold seems unlikely but beyond that, who knows?  

[griteater]

Bob - yeah, there are a few different things going on there with the Cohen snow cover stuff.  He has the snow advance to AO correlation, and he also has his own winter model forecast.  Last year, the winter model forecast performed pretty well, but the snow advance to AO correlation was a big fail...and I agree, I don't recall him acknowledging that failure.  The issue at hand is that we simply don't have a lot to go on with predicting the AO.  I don't think we just throw the baby out with the bathwater (what a weird saying) on the snow advance ideas, but they've certainly taken a hit.

 

One other thing...last fall, the met poster millwx had posted some stats correlating snow cover extent (not snow advance) to cold in the east (it seemed to be focused on the major cities from the mid-Atlantic to New England).  His correlation didn't involve the AO....just straight, if snow cover is high in October (seemed like it was the 3rd week in Oct), then chances increase for a cold winter in the big east markets.