Brick Tamland Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 The best thing to do is just expect nothing. The analogs and models can tell us if there is a chance or not, but most of the time that chance doesn't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I'm still sticking to wet and warm I can only hope for just a tad bit of blocking to make the magic happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I'm still sticking to wet and warm I can only hope for just a tad bit of blocking to make the magic happen Im saying stormy, and near to slightly below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Im saying stormy, and near to slightly below normal temps.Brick=2"MBY=10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I know this, if the NAO tanks around Oct/Nov I'll be worried. Seems these last two years that has happened and we always end up with a long positive stretch in winter to flip back in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 We've been on a good run of winters for the most part since 2008-2009. Good times to live in the Southeast after all the warmth and blazing that occurred between 2004-2008. The analogs and indices certainly look good for another average/above average winter once again. We've been on the end-of-winter hype train for the last two winters with an epic ends to both winters (great February/March in 2014 and a great Fab Feb in 2015), so maybe we'll turn the tables and have a good start to winter and torch towards the end this winter? Speak for yourself :-). Winters for RDU have sucked for the past 5, 10, 20, 30 years, whichever timeline you want to use we are at historically low levels. I think this winter will be a letdown...NINOFTL. There isn't a lot of bad mod+ Ninos with a +PDO that suck but we will somehow blow chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Analogs? Remember last year? Want a cold/snowy winter? Look at the past 2 - hope for no Halloween surprise, and no Turkey Day flakes. If we stay warm until 12/1 - my 2¢ worth -- we're in the game. It's my "U" vs. "∩" winter temp theory .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I know this, if the NAO tanks around Oct/Nov I'll be worried. Seems these last two years that has happened and we always end up with a long positive stretch in winter to flip back in spring.Good point burger. We also need the sun to stay quite this fall also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Analogs? Remember last year? Want a cold/snowy winter? Look at the past 2 - hope for no Halloween surprise, and no Turkey Day flakes. If we stay warm until 12/1 - my 2¢ worth -- we're in the game. It's my "U" vs. "∩" winter temp theory .... LOL last year it showed. got all the weenies going crazy, then they all ran into walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 I know this, if the NAO tanks around Oct/Nov I'll be worried. Seems these last two years that has happened and we always end up with a long positive stretch in winter to flip back in spring.Don't forget about the October storm. Better hope we don't have one of those to deal with!Edit: I see pcbjr already locked this one up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 3, 2015 Share Posted August 3, 2015 Speak for yourself :-). Winters for RDU have sucked for the past 5, 10, 20, 30 years, whichever timeline you want to use we are at historically low levels. I think this winter will be a letdown...NINOFTL. There isn't a lot of bad mod+ Ninos with a +PDO that suck but we will somehow blow chunks. This winter can't be any worse than last year! Even if we didnt have a threat or event, this whole winter, that would be better than last years duds and "snow" storms that turn out to be sleet! I'd rather have wall to wall torch! Anyone else notice in the summer you can get months in a row of temps 5-10 above normal everyday!? In winter, if we get a week at 5-10 below normal, we are extremely lucky!? We rock at heat and droughts and suck at snow and cold! That's just living in the South , I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Don't forget about the October storm. Better hope we don't have one of those to deal with! Edit: I see pcbjr already locked this one up! Yep that may be the biggest thing.there. No Oct or Nov winter weather. Anything after Dec 1 would probably be ok though. Maybe this fall and winter will be like 2002-2003. The 1986-87 analog is a longer shot in my opinion since August isn't matching it right now, but it is still a slight possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Winter of 95-96 was jam up and jelly tight in Mauldin! We had a November dusting of snow and sleet on or around the 9th. Then it was slow till January , then we had some good events, some super cold, lake effect off of Hartwell on Easley. One day it was in the 20s and flizzarded all day! That was a great winter! I don't know the enso state, but we had accumulating snow / sleet in November and a rocking January, atleast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Don't forget about the October storm. Better hope we don't have one of those to deal with! Edit: I see pcbjr already locked this one up! Nah, this is going to be a repeat of 2011-2012, the last winter prior to a Presidential election. Prepare for a near-snowless winter. 2007-2008 was also a terrible winter. 2003-2004 and 1999-2000 were good winters, though. Maybe good winters prior to a Presidential election correlate with a Republican winning the Presidency whereas bad winters prelude Democratic victories? EDIT: Of course, 1995-1996 with it's "Blizzard of '96" kind of throws my crackpot theory out of the water since Clinton beat Dole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Don't forget about the October storm. Better hope we don't have one of those to deal with! Edit: I see pcbjr already locked this one up! Eric just tweeted the top MJJ ONI's over the past 100+ years and the majority were crappy winters for snow....strong majority. Thats not why he tweeted it but I just looked them up and noticed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Eric just tweeted the top MJJ ONI's over the past 100+ years and the majority were crappy winters for snow....strong majority. Thats not why he tweeted it but I just looked them up and noticed it. Oh I'm definitely expecting a warm winter this year with fewer opportunities for snow...although I would estimate that the risk for a big storm is elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 SST Analog Forecast **Updated**NDJ 2M TempsNDJ Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 ^ That looks pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Oh I'm definitely expecting a warm winter this year with fewer opportunities for snow...although I would estimate that the risk for a big storm is elevated.I like your thought process! Plan for suck and you won't / can't be dissapointed ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 ^ That looks pretty good!Almost see some blocking up there!!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I like your thought process! Plan for suck and you won't / can't be dissapointed ! You know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 you live north of 40 and west of winston u are in for one hell of a big dog this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Oh I'm definitely expecting a warm winter this year with fewer opportunities for snow...although I would estimate that the risk for a big storm is elevated. Warm winter would be great, sick of these sleet storms and tainted snow events. Temps in the 60's bulk of winter would be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Warm winter would be great, sick of these sleet storms and tainted snow events. Temps in the 60's bulk of winter would be welcome. The problem we have is the last couple of winters have been normal to above normal in snow for our area. We really can't complain much. Don't get me wrong, I was disappointed in last years winter; primarily because of the hype. I was looking for the big dog storms running from December onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The problem we have is the last couple of winters have been normal to above normal in snow for our area. We really can't complain much. Don't get me wrong, I was disappointed in last years winter; primarily because of the hype. I was looking for the big dog storms running from December onward.It really depends on your location with what your climo snow is. Last year for the mountains was not good. I was about 20 inches below normal for snow and our biggest snowfall was Halloween weekend. Two years ago was pretty good then three years ago was awful. We have really not seen a very good winter in the mountains for quite sometime. Look at Asheville they had a severe snow drought for years. If this wintet is awful for the mountains it will just continue the horrible string of very little snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 It really depends on your location with what your climo snow is. Last year for the mountains was not good. I was about 20 inches below normal for snow and our biggest snowfall was Halloween weekend. Two years ago was pretty good then three years ago was awful. We have really not seen a very good winter in the mountains for quite sometime. Look at Asheville they had a severe snow drought for years. If this wintet is awful for the mountains it will just continue the horrible string of very little snow for us. Regarding Asheville (airport), the average snowfall over the last 30 years there is 10.5 inches. Here's how the recent years stack up going back to the big 09-10 winter: 09-10: 39.2 10-11: 20.2 11-12: Trace 12-13: 0.5 13-14: 9.8 14-15: 13.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 The problem we have is the last couple of winters have been normal to above normal in snow for our area. We really can't complain much. Don't get me wrong, I was disappointed in last years winter; primarily because of the hype. I was looking for the big dog storms running from December onward. When is the last time we have had a real big dog? They have all been to the east lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Regarding Asheville (airport), the average snowfall over the last 30 years there is 10.5 inches. Here's how the recent years stack up going back to the big 09-10 winter: 09-10: 39.2 10-11: 20.2 11-12: Trace 12-13: 0.5 13-14: 9.8 14-15: 13.3 Good six year average ~133% of normal. Now just look at the past four years and it's ~50% of normal. You got to love statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 When is the last time we have had a real big dog? They have all been to the east lately. But we've done well. Two six + inch storms in the last two years would normally count as a win: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20150226.png Edit: and you have to ask the question what is a big dog storm for us. I say six inches or more of snow, or >2" of sleet, or >3/4" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 But we've done well. Two six + inch storms in the last two years would normally count as a win: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20150226.png Edit: and you have to ask the question what is a big dog storm for us. I say six inches or more of snow, or >2" of sleet, or >3/4" of freezing rain. Yeah, I would say 6 inches or more. We have had at least one good one the last two winters. I guess I was like you and was hoping for more last winter with all the hype going into it. Looks like we will be lucky to get one this winter. Of course, what actually happens will be anyone's guess. The analogs and long range forecasts were pretty useless last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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