March 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010 normals) for the six main contest sites and if you wish, the optional three western stations, scoring for those is separate.

 

The following template will show you (if you're new to the contest) what stations we are using and then the thread will collect your entries, provide a table and updates on actual values as they develop.

 

Welcome if you're considering joining the contest.

 

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

__________________________________________________________

 

Provide your forecasts in any format you like, I try to verify the order but it makes things easier for me if you list them in the same order as above. Also, try to use a larger type face, a double negative sign (as in -- not -) and the number zero when you have a fractional anomaly ...  (e.g., --0.7 is easier to read than -.7)

 

Forecasts without a sign are assumed to be positive anomalies.

 

Check my table against your entries as no corrections are accepted after the 4th (to prevent late editing -- anyone can edit before the deadline without making a note, I don't start the table construction until the deadline has passed but usually right away at that time -- if anyone ever wanted to edit during the penalty phase, that would be acceptable with a notation in the post, but the time penalty would apply to whatever stations were modified late).

 

 

Time penalties

 

The month starts with a weekend but it's not a holiday and the deadline is more or less Friday 28th so I will not use the more lenient holiday weekend type of penalties. In other words, get your entry in this week if you have weekend plans. Those time penalties are simple enough, 1% deduction from scores per hour late entry (5 min grace period) starting at 0605z March 1st. This implies that you would be scoring zero if you entered after 10z on March 5th.

 

 

Scoring rules

 

You start with 100 points per station and lose 2 for each 0.1 F error, with the exceptions of large anomalies in actual values > 5.0 in either direction. Those cases are scored so that equal ranges near the actual and near zero lose one point per 0.1 F error. For example, an actual anomaly of --8.0 is scored with 1 pt gradations --0.1 to --2.0, then 2 pts --2.1 to --5.0 and 1 pt for predictions --5.1 to --11.0 and 2 pts again if any prediction below --11.0 ... in cases where actuals are > 10 pos or neg, all scores with the right sign score their value reduced by (actual / 10), for example, an actual value of +12.0 will give a prediction of +8.4 a score of (84 x 10/12) or 70. Predictions on the outside of such a large anomaly would be rare but if we get one, the score is derived from a mirror image of this formula, e.g., a forecast of +15.6 would be scored like +8.4 in the case illustrated.

 

By trial and error I have found that this system closely approximates a standard deviation technqiue.

 

Time penalties are applied to station scores which are then summed, and not to their pre-penalty totals.

[Quixotic1]

DCA _-1.0_ NYC _-2.1_ BOS __-2.0__ ORD _-3.5_ ATL _-0.2_ IAH __0.0__ (optional) DEN _-1.4   PHX _+2.0  SEA  -1.2

[Tom]

DCA: -1.1 NYC: -1.3 BOS: -0.7 ORD: -4.5 ATL: +0.5 IAH: +0.4 DEN: -0.8 PHX +1.6 SEA. +1.1

[ksammut]

DCA: -2.6   NYC: -4.1  BOS: -5.2  ORD: -5.9 ATL: -.01  IAH -1.3  DEN: +1.3  PHX: +1.2  SEA -1.4

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

-1.5  _____-2.5 _____-3.0 ___ -5.0 ____-1.0  ____-1.0 ________+0.5  _____+2.5 _____+1.0

[uncle W]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____

-2.5......-3.5......-3.7...........-4.5.......-0.5.....+0.5

[WEATHER53]

All stations -4.0

Not playing the western option.

[Stebo]

DCA: -2.1 NYC: -2.2 BOS: -1.6 ORD: -3.8 ATL: +0.2 IAH: +0.5 DEN: -1.2 PHX +1.3 SEA. -1.2

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA -2.9

NYC -3.0

BOS -4.0

ORD -5.1

ATL  +0.2

IAH  +1.1

DEN +2.4

PHX +2.8

SEA +0.9

[donsutherland1]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

-2.8 _____-3.6 _____-4.0 ___ -5.1 ____-0.7 ____-0.7 ________+0.5 _____+1.2 _____+1.4

[RodneyS]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

 

-1.5 _____-3.6 _____-3.8 ___ -4.4 ____+0.8 ____-1.8 ________+1.9 _____+0.8 _____-1.9

 

[Roger Smith]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

 

-2.2 _____-3.2 _____-3.2 ___ -6.4 ____+0.3 ____-1.0 ________+1.4 _____+2.3 _____+1.1

 

 

[bkviking]

DCA -2.0

NYC -2.5

BOS -2.4

ORD -3.9

ATL +0.2

IAH +1.0

DEN +1.2

PHX +3.1

SEA +1.9

[N. OF PIKE]

DCA -2.0

NYC-2.5

BOS-3.5

ORD-3.8

ATL -1.0

IAH +.8

DEN +1.4

PHX +2.5

SEA +2.0

[Isotherm]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

 

-3.1 _____-3.8 _____-4.2 ___ -4.7 ____-1.0 ____0.4________+0.9 _____+1.7 _____+1.2

[metalicwx366]

DCA - 2.5

NYC - 2.3

BOS - 2.9

ORD - 3.9

ATL - 0.5

IAH - 2.0

DEN -1.0

PHX+1.3

SEA+1.0

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA - 3.5

NYC - 3.2

BOS - 3.0

ORD - 4.5

ATL +1.0

IAH +0.9

DEN +0.9

PHX+2.8

SEA+1.4

[wxdude64]

DCA .... NYC .... BOS .... ORD .... ATL .... IAH ........ DEN .... PHX .... SEA

 

-1.3      -3.2      -3.8     -4.9       +0.6     -1.0         +1.4    +0.4     -1.6

[blazess556]

DCA -1.9
NYC -2.7
BOS -3.1
ORD -4.8
ATL -0.3
IAH +0.5
DEN +1.2
PHX +2.4
SEA +1.8

[OHweather]

DCA: -3.0

NYC: -4.0

BOS: -3.8

ORD: -4.7

ATL: -1.7

IAH: -0.5

 

(optional)

DEN: +1.2

PHX: -0.3

SEA: +0.5

[Chicago Storm]

DCA: -2.5

NYC: -2.7

BOS: -2.5

ORD: -3.3

ATL: -0.6

IAH: -0.3

 

DEN: -0.3

PHX: +1.5

SEA: -0.7

[Roger Smith]

Forecasts for March 2014

 

 

Forecaster _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

goobagooba ______________ --1.0 _ --2.1 _ --2.0 ___ --3.5 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 ___________ --1.4 _ +2.0 _ --1.2

Tom _____________________ --1.1 _ --1.3 _ --0.7 ___ --4.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.4 __________ --0.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.1

wxdude64 _______________ --1.3  _ --3.2 _ --3.8 ___ --4.9 _ +0.6 _ --1.0 ___________ +1.4 _ +0.4 _ --1.6

Mallow __________________  --1.5 _ --2.5 _ --3.0 ___ --5.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___________+0.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS _________________--1.5 _ --3.6 _ --3.8 ___ --4.4 _ +0.8 _ --1.8 ____________+1.9 _ +0.8 _ --1.9

blazess556 _______________ --1.9 _ --2.7 _ --3.1 ___ --4.8 _ --0.3 _ +0.5 ___________ +1.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.8

bkviking _________________ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --2.4 ___ --3.9 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ____________+1.2 _ +3.1 _ +1.9

cpick79  _________________ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --3.5 ___ --3.8 _ --1.0 _ +0.8 ____________+1.4 _ +2.5 _ +2.0

stebo ___________________ --2.1 _ --2.2 _ --1.6 ___ --3.8 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ____________ --1.2 _ +1.3 _ --1.2

hudsonvalley21 __ (--40%) __--2.2 _ --3.0 _ --2.9 ___ --3.1 _ --0.1 _ --0.2

Roger Smith _____________ --2.2 _ --3.2 _ --3.2 ___ --6.4 _ +0.3 _ --1.0 ____________ +1.4 _ +2.3 _ +1.1

metallicwx366 ____________ --2.5 _ --2.3 _ --2.9 ___ --3.9 _ --0.5 _ --2.0 ___________ --1.0 _ +1.3 _ +1.0

 

Consensus ________________ --2.5 _ --3.0 _ --3.2 ___ --4.5 _ --0.2 _--0.1 ___________ +0.9 _ +1.7 _ +1.2

 

 

Chicago Storm __ (--12%) __ --2.5 _ --2.7 _ --2.5 ___ --3.3 _ --0.6 _ --0.3 ___________ --0.3 _ +1.5 _ --0.7

uncle W _________________ --2.5 _ --3.5 _ --3.7 ___ --4.5 _ --0.5 _ +0.5

ksammut ________________ --2.6 _ --4.2 _ --5.2 ___ --5.9 _ --0.1 _ --1.3 ___________ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ --1.4

swflow ____ (--16%) ______ --2.7 _ --3.1 _ --3.9 ___ --7.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 ____________ --1.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.8

DonSutherland.1 __________ --2.8 _ --3.6 _ --4.0 ___ --5.1 _ --0.7 _ --0.7 ___________ +0.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4

Damage in Tolland ________ --2.9 _ --3.0 _ --4.0 ___ --5.1 _ +0.2 _ +1.1 ____________ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +0.9

H2OTown_Wx __ (--16%) __ --3.0 _ --2.6 _ --2.2 ___ --4.5 _ --1.1 _ --0.3 ____________ +1.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.3

Isotherm ________________ --3.1 _ --3.8 _ --4.2 ___ --4.7 _ --1.0 _  +0.4____________+0.9 _ +1.7 __+1.2

OH weather ______________ --3.4 _ --4.0 _ --3.8 ___ --4.7 _ --1.7 _ --0.5 ___________ +1.2 _ --0.3 _ +0.5

Midlo Snow Maker_________ --3.5 _ --3.2 _ --3.0 ___ --4.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ____________ +0.9 _ +2.8 _ +1.4

Tenman Johnson __________ --4.0 _ --4.0 _ --4.0 ___ -4.0 _ --4.0 _ --4.0

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

As of March 1st 9:30 p.m., 22 entries, 20 playing the western option, consensus is mean of 11th and 12th ranked entries for classic and expanded divisions, mean of 10th and 11th ranked for western. Consensus will change with any new (late) entries.  Late penalty will be 33% by 15z Sunday. A 23rd entry from Hudsonvalley21 has been added but consensus will remain almost the same, it is now the 12th ranked forecast.

[swflow]

DCA: -2.7

NYC: -3.1

BOS: -3.9

ORD: -7.2

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +1.6

 

DEN: -1.2

PHX: +3.7

SEA: +4.8

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS ... ....ORD...ATL...IAH.... ....DEN...PHX...SEA

-3.0...-2.6...-2.2.... .......-4.5....-1.1...-0.3 ........+1.7...+0.9...+1.3

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____

-2.2......-3.0......-2.9...........-3.1.......-0.1.....-0.2

[Scotty Lightning]

Super penalty for me.

 

(someone should PM me before the end of the month...please! )

 

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

-2.0      -2.0       -1.5          -2.5      -2.5      -0.5                         2.5      1.5      2.5

[Roger Smith]

Sorry, I hate to exclude a regular participant but the rules say 1% penalty per hour late (after 06z 1st) and you are 112 hours late. Since it's only for fun I will score your forecast so you can see what might have been. Note that I already inflicted a 40% penalty on hudsonvalley21 who entered on Sunday. Are these penalties too harsh? We had this discussion last year, I got the feeling the majority wanted to keep them strict.

 

Will post some anomalies after today's readings, last time I looked ORD was -20. I think they may have torched to -18 today.

[uncle W]

Forecasts for March 2014

 

 

Forecaster _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

goobagooba ______________ --1.0 _ --2.1 _ --2.0 ___ --3.5 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 ___________ --1.4 _ +2.0 _ --1.2

Tom _____________________ --1.1 _ --1.3 _ --0.7 ___ --4.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.4 __________ --0.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.1

wxdude64 _______________ --1.3  _ --3.2 _ --3.8 ___ --4.9 _ +0.6 _ --1.0 ___________ +1.4 _ +0.4 _ --1.6

Mallow __________________  --1.5 _ --2.5 _ --3.0 ___ --5.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ___________+0.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS _________________--1.5 _ --3.6 _ --3.8 ___ --4.4 _ +0.8 _ --1.8 ____________+1.9 _ +0.8 _ --1.9

blazess556 _______________ --1.9 _ --2.7 _ --3.1 ___ --4.8 _ --0.3 _ +0.5 ___________ +1.2 _ +2.4 _ +1.8

bkviking _________________ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --2.4 ___ --3.9 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ____________+1.2 _ +3.1 _ +1.9

cpick79  _________________ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --3.5 ___ --3.8 _ --1.0 _ +0.8 ____________+1.4 _ +2.5 _ +2.0

stebo ___________________ --2.1 _ --2.2 _ --1.6 ___ --3.8 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ____________ --1.2 _ +1.3 _ --1.2

hudsonvalley21 __ (--40%) __--2.2 _ --3.0 _ --2.9 ___ --3.1 _ --0.1 _ --0.2

Roger Smith _____________ --2.2 _ --3.2 _ --3.2 ___ --6.4 _ +0.3 _ --1.0 ____________ +1.4 _ +2.3 _ +1.1

metallicwx366 ____________ --2.5 _ --2.3 _ --2.9 ___ --3.9 _ --0.5 _ --2.0 ___________ --1.0 _ +1.3 _ +1.0

 

Consensus ________________ --2.5 _ --3.0 _ --3.2 ___ --4.5 _ --0.2 _--0.1 ___________ +0.9 _ +1.7 _ +1.2

 

 

Chicago Storm __ (--12%) __ --2.5 _ --2.7 _ --2.5 ___ --3.3 _ --0.6 _ --0.3 ___________ --0.3 _ +1.5 _ --0.7

uncle W _________________ --2.5 _ --3.5 _ --3.7 ___ --4.5 _ --0.5 _ +0.5

ksammut ________________ --2.6 _ --4.2 _ --5.2 ___ --5.9 _ --0.1 _ --1.3 ___________ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ --1.4

swflow ____ (--16%) ______ --2.7 _ --3.1 _ --3.9 ___ --7.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 ____________ --1.2 _ +3.7 _ +4.8

DonSutherland.1 __________ --2.8 _ --3.6 _ --4.0 ___ --5.1 _ --0.7 _ --0.7 ___________ +0.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4

Damage in Tolland ________ --2.9 _ --3.0 _ --4.0 ___ --5.1 _ +0.2 _ +1.1 ____________ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +0.9

H2OTown_Wx __ (--16%) __ --3.0 _ --2.6 _ --2.2 ___ --4.5 _ --1.1 _ --0.3 ____________ +1.7 _ +0.9 _ +1.3

Isotherm ________________ --3.1 _ --3.8 _ --4.2 ___ --4.7 _ --1.0 _  +0.4____________+0.9 _ +1.7 __+1.2

OH weather ______________ --3.4 _ --4.0 _ --3.8 ___ --4.7 _ --1.7 _ --0.5 ___________ +1.2 _ --0.3 _ +0.5

Midlo Snow Maker_________ --3.5 _ --3.2 _ --3.0 ___ --4.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ____________ +0.9 _ +2.8 _ +1.4

Tenman Johnson __________ --4.0 _ --4.0 _ --4.0 ___ -4.0 _ --4.0 _ --4.0

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

As of March 1st 9:30 p.m., 22 entries, 20 playing the western option, consensus is mean of 11th and 12th ranked entries for classic and expanded divisions, mean of 10th and 11th ranked for western. Consensus will change with any new (late) entries.  Late penalty will be 33% by 15z Sunday. A 23rd entry from Hudsonvalley21 has been added but consensus will remain almost the same, it is now the 12th ranked forecast.

it looks like everyone is predicting below average for the big three east coast cities...I never saw that before...

[Roger Smith]

Well so far these are the actual anomalies:

 

after n days ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

___ 5 ___________________--9.6 _--10.1 _--8.8 ___--17.7_--3.0e_ --11.4e ___--5.4 _ +2.2 _ +4.6

 

e -- estimated using daily climate report, as CF6 last update on previous date.

[wxdude64]

Well so far these are the actual anomalies:

 

after n days ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

___ 5 ___________________--9.6 _--10.1 _--8.6e ___--17.7_--3.0e_ --11.4e ___--5.4 _ +2.2 _ +4.6

 

e -- estimated using daily climate report, as CF6 last update on previous date.

LOL at ORD, they've had a LONG rough winter up there.......