klw Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here's the BTV map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z NAM QPF totals are impressive for up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It gonna snow. This could be a pretty epic week upcoming here........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I didn't get a chance till now to look at all the 12z models... but wow what was wrong with the 12z NAM and GFS? Looks like they got schooled by the UKMET, Canadian, and EURO. Funny how the 9z ETA (I still like that model more than the NAM) was wayyy south and then at 15z it jumped way north to follow the UKMET/CMC/EURO. The 12z NAM was way south and then at 18z jumped way north. Now the 18z GFS has come north a bit, but still is the furthest south of all the major models. What in the world did the American models miss 6 hours ago that the international models saw? And all the sudden the American models are playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I didn't get a chance till now to look at all the 12z models... but wow what was wrong with the 12z NAM and GFS? Looks like they got schooled by the UKMET, Canadian, and EURO. Funny how the 9z ETA (I still like that model more than the NAM) was wayyy south and then at 15z it jumped way north to follow the UKMET/CMC/EURO. The 12z NAM was way south and then at 18z jumped way north. Now the 18z GFS has come north a bit, but still is the furthest south of all the major models. What in the world did the American models miss 6 hours ago that the international models saw? And all the sudden the American models are playing catch up. Brian (Dendrite) pointed out that the Euro and UKMET have been superior according to verification scores recently... Still doesn't explain the GGEM and RGEM though... Whatever it is, I'm happy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I didn't get a chance till now to look at all the 12z models... but wow what was wrong with the 12z NAM and GFS? Looks like they got schooled by the UKMET, Canadian, and EURO. Funny how the 9z ETA (I still like that model more than the NAM) was wayyy south and then at 15z it jumped way north to follow the UKMET/CMC/EURO. The 12z NAM was way south and then at 18z jumped way north. Now the 18z GFS has come north a bit, but still is the furthest south of all the major models. What in the world did the American models miss 6 hours ago that the international models saw? And all the sudden the American models are playing catch up. I think it's mostly initialization issues. Anyways...Sat night looks like a net gain for most of us...Tuesday looks decent...and then Thu/Fri is still up in the air, but has potential. If the bounces go our way we could be flirting with the 07-08 max snow depths in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think it's mostly initialization issues. Anyways...Sat night looks like a net gain for most of us...Tuesday looks decent...and then Thu/Fri is still up in the air, but has potential. If the bounces go our way we could be flirting with the 07-08 max snow depths in this area. Yeah I'm definitely getting excited at some of the potentials...especially now that we are getting into the action here in NNE. That last storm really helped boost my moral with a solid foot of snow and a settled depth now a little above 2 feet here below 1,000ft. I think you guys further east will do very, very well this week. My gut tells me that Monday night is a widespread light snowfall for everyone, and then Tuesday I think this thing gets its act together fast enough to benefit you NH and ME folks. If not from a coastal then from an inverted trough between the weakening primary low and the coastal secondary. As far as Thu/Fri, obviously its way up in the air at this point, but I'm hopeful for a track close enough to hit everyone from us in VT to Vim Toot in northern ME. The bigger bonus is no warm up in sight, so any snow is good snow at this point because it keeps adding to the snowpack. We still haven't gone above freezing since January 2nd, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Interesting night Saturday night. Do I stay all snow or mi?x. 0Z NAM brings low even further west and says mix gets into Lakes Region of NH before everything crashes back. I still think I will stay all snow(just barely0 with a major plastering! NNE looks real good! Our turn for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Interesting night Saturday night. Do I stay all snow or mi?x. 0Z NAM brings low even further west and says mix gets into Lakes Region of NH before everything crashes back. I still think I will stay all snow(just barely0 with a major plastering! NNE looks real good! Our turn for a change! I'm not "N" enough according to the NAM. But it is nice that those further north who've been getting bent over this season may be getting rewarded finally. A little rain at 35F won't do terrible things to my snowpack, so it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Interesting night Saturday night. Do I stay all snow or mi?x. 0Z NAM brings low even further west and says mix gets into Lakes Region of NH before everything crashes back. I still think I will stay all snow(just barely0 with a major plastering! NNE looks real good! Our turn for a change! You mix on this run. Even Plymouth does. Hopefully the NAM is too amplified, but I wouldn't doubt this verifies. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Rubi Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Great Euro run for central VT. Mostly snow for Sat night with maybe some ice or sleet mixing in briefly, but otherwise a nice 6-10" of high water content snow...looks like bullseye might be near Killington. I've already had enough, I need a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You mix on this run. Even Plymouth does. Hopefully the NAM is too amplified, but I wouldn't doubt this verifies. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite does. I just sneaked a peak at the 00z NAM... lol no way that happens. We are even close to sleet (awful pellet-like ratios, probably too) up here on that run. No way this system is this juicy, either. I think this thing will max out with a thin ribbon of QPF near 1" from central VT through central/northern NH into western ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What a difference 12 hours of data will do to initialization and resultant model output (ie QPF and track)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I just sneaked a peak at the 00z NAM... lol no way that happens. We are even close to sleet (awful pellet-like ratios, probably too) up here on that run. No way this system is this juicy, either. I think this thing will max out with a thin ribbon of QPF near 1" from central VT through central/northern NH into western ME. Enjoy your sleet on the 00z GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Enjoy your sleet on the 00z GFS as well. Even the NAM is close... dynamic cooling takes care of the freezing or above layer once precip gets going at BTV, which is pretty far NW to even have to consider that. I bet the GFS is much more ugly. This is still a wet snow bomb as the precip occurs from 00z to 12z tomorrow... but that's a 5,000ft thick layer of -2C to 0C air. Threading the needle on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 MET is a 6 here... Higher than any past run (although if an 18z exists, it may have been higher). Sounding definitely mixes here. I found this interesting from the surface parameters wxcaster thing "TSSN" on hour 33... Beyond that, the GFS is a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Might go over to rain here... holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well that's interesting... the GYX snowfall map has KLEB at 5.1 (fairly reasonable, but might up being too high), but they have us in a warning for 6-8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I will take it! INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON... STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES... UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON 356 AM EST SAT FEB 5 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...ESSEX COUNTY OF NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...EXCEPT FRANKLIN AND GRAND ISLE COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW PACKED ROADS. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TONIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Good luck in everybody staying snow. Us coasties and near-coasties have some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 -6F for a low this morning, up to -4F now. Ugh on tonight. Better get to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 "There are 2 (anonymous) guests viewing this topic." Eastern ME storms don't generate much traffic. For most here ENNE is way downstream. Kaput. Next! Oh well. We're hardy up here though. We'll take these shrugged-off events and polish them till they shine. This one might not be another turd for NENNE. CAR is on the northern fringe again. I'm using body english for a leftward lift. Join me. We'll start a movement this morning. Just after coffee. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 "There are 2 (anonymous) guests viewing this topic." Eastern ME storms don't generate much traffic. For most here ENNE is way downstream. Kaput. Next! Oh well. We're hardy up here though. We'll take these shrugged-off events and polish them till they shine. This one might not be another turd for NENNE. CAR is on the northern fringe again. I'm using body english for a leftward lift. Join me. Vim Toot! It can do a leftward lift after it takes a southward shimmy down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, this was somewhat unexpected. When I went to bed last night, I was sort of expecting 2 - 4, maybe 3 - 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just getting to go over runs from last night and this am, It looks like coastal areas are going to gave mixing issues with a flip to rain back to snow deal, The 1,000,000 ? is, How far does it make it inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just getting to go over runs from last night and this am, It looks like coastal areas are going to gave mixing issues with a flip to rain back to snow deal, The 1,000,000 ? is, How far does it make it inland Looks like a lot of rain here, with maybe a coating on the back end before we torch to near 40 tomorrow afternoon with sun and downsloping. Definitely a lost weekend in these parts. I guess we were overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just getting to go over runs from last night and this am, It looks like coastal areas are going to gave mixing issues with a flip to rain back to snow deal, The 1,000,000 ? is, How far does it make it inland How awful was the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How awful was the Euro? Looked like the 0C 850s made it near N. Conway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 How awful was the Euro? It looks like the 0C line makes it just north of me here as i looked at the regional view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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