mattb65 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Tons of energy flying across MA to blow this thing up N of our latitude, congrats canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Whose looking at the QPF depiction. I've been paying attention to the 500 maps. The trend has not been your friend for a 6-12" widespread SNE snow event. The 1z NAM, once again, has the rogue s/w out ahead of the main trough that jack things up. What model do you actually like these days? It seems like you've trashed them all, the Euro included. Its hard to go against the gfs euro tandem. The nam should be tossed on this next system for right now same with the Srefs but absolutely nothing supports a 6-12 and not one meteorologist aside of Joe L is apparently saying anything different and that was just to Kev privately. Things could change but not even the jma is a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Upton snow map out Going with 3.5 for BDR and 4 on top of Ginxs head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Whose looking at the QPF depiction. I've been paying attention to the 500 maps. The trend has not been your friend for a 6-12" widespread SNE snow event. The 18z NAM, once again, has the rogue s/w out ahead of the main trough that jack things up. What model do you actually like these days? It seems like you've trashed them all, the Euro included. Which ever one gives you the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Its hard to go against the gfs euro tandem. The nam should be tossed on this next system for right now same with the Srefs but absolutely nothing supports a 6-12 and not one meteorologist aside of Joe L is apparently saying anything different and that was just to Kev privately. Things could change but not even the jma is a big hit. No argument there Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Of course it's not on those 2 pieces of crap. garbage in garbage out. Sometimes you have to "see past" the model qpf depiction. Care to do that? I thought you loved the Nam after the blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When it goes to schools closing due to weather why does everyone always say, "Have fun going to school into July"...schools can only go for so long, they aren't aloud to go past a certain date b/c then you run into issues with summer school and other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I thought you loved the Nam after the blizzard? I did..It nailed that 110%..since then it's been abysmal. Models are graded after an event ..not before young man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well no one should be cliff diving off based on the SREFS and 18z NAM. Clearly low-end solutions with regards to rest of guidance. If other models catch on to the idea by 0z, then it may be time to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 wow 15 eta is bone dry......lp scoots off the southern ma. everything is going in the wrong direction.........damn ss. Think my call of 2-6 might be way too high. Don't be silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I did..It nailed that 110%..since then it's been abysmal. Models are graded after an event ..not before young man Good!! So its still 6-12 for everyone!!!? Artic front, high ratios, little wave traveling up it squeezing ever possible drop of moisture out of the atmosphere...........it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Analog.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us1230.php Models backed off this storm 24-48 hours out and it overproduced tremendously in many areas in NYC...not sure what it did up by you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When it goes to schools closing due to weather why does everyone always say, "Have fun going to school into July"...schools can only go for so long, they aren't aloud to go past a certain date b/c then you run into issues with summer school and other things. I think it's just an exaggeration Paul. But places like Naugatuck are going to be going to school well into June as it is right now. Never mind the fact that they'll probably have several more snow days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Of course it's not on those 2 pieces of crap. garbage in garbage out. Sometimes you have to "see past" the model qpf depiction. Care to do that? I did..It nailed that 110%..since then it's been abysmal. Models are graded after an event ..not before young man So which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good!! So its still 6-12 for everyone!!!? Artic front, high ratios, little wave traveling up it squeezing ever possible drop of moisture out of the atmosphere...........it could happen As of now nothing I see takes 6-12 off the table..if i revise down it will be after 12z runs tomorrow..otherwise stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When it goes to schools closing due to weather why does everyone always say, "Have fun going to school into July"...schools can only go for so long, they aren't aloud to go past a certain date b/c then you run into issues with summer school and other things. Last year here in sw ct after the wind storm, schools in Fairfield cty were closed for a week, on top of what happened over the winter. Greenwich was in school until the last day of June..............but yes it was in jest, we would need another 7 snow days for that to happen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Analog.... http://www.meteo.psu...1993/us1230.php Models backed off this storm 24-48 hours out and it overproduced tremendously in many areas in NYC...not sure what it did up by you guys. Will brought that up this morning. I'd kill for that. I got a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well no one should be cliff diving off based on the SREFS and 18z NAM. Clearly low-end solutions with regards to rest of guidance. If other models catch on to the idea by 0z, then it may be time to be concerned. well.... right now is the time to be concerned. since models have been trending less qpf /snow for last day . should others models catch on ...to 18z nam at 0z .....then it's off to cliff jumping. at least i'll land in 17 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When it goes to schools closing due to weather why does everyone always say, "Have fun going to school into July"...schools can only go for so long, they aren't aloud to go past a certain date b/c then you run into issues with summer school and other things. The whole July 1st limit is usually due to fiscal years and budgets since a lot of fiscal years end on June 30. Anyways, a lot of CT schools plan to end in the first two weeks of June, so it would take a helluva winter to blow through the remaining two weeks in snow days. Plus most schools will start taking vacation days before it gets to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well.... right now is the time to be concerned. since models have been trending less qpf /snow for last day . should others models catch on ...to 18z nam at 0z .....then it's off to cliff jumping. at least i'll land in 17 inches of snow. Suicide was so 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Will brought that up this morning. I'd kill for that. I got a foot. I mentioned earlier, that band running from sw-ne well to the north of the low, because that might over perform for someone. I think the 12/29/93 storm had that. It's something to watch, but not a guarantee. I don't think models will completely show this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I mentioned earlier, that band running from sw-ne well to the north of the low, because that might over perform for someone. I think the 12/29/93 storm had that. It's something to watch, but not a guarantee. I don't think models will completely show this right now. This is what i am trying to teach Bobby...Look past the models...look where the -8c isotherm is for bigger snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I think it's just an exaggeration Paul. But places like Naugatuck are going to be going to school well into June as it is right now. Never mind the fact that they'll probably have several more snow days. Last year here in sw ct after the wind storm, schools in Fairfield cty were closed for a week, on top of what happened over the winter. Greenwich was in school until the last day of June..............but yes it was in jest, we would need another 7 snow days for that to happen!! A week from the wind storm? Must have been some sick damage...wow. The whole July 1st limit is usually due to fiscal years and budgets since a lot of fiscal years end on June 30. Anyways, a lot of CT schools plan to end in the first two weeks of June, so it would take a helluva winter to blow through the remaining two weeks in snow days. Plus most schools will start taking vacation days before it gets to that point. I was just going to bring that up, although I'm not sure how that is done...not sure if they can just take away from the mid winter or spring week long breaks that alot of schools have...then you run into issues with families who have scheduled vacations and teachers and such. I'm pretty sure they have a plan though or at least they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is what i am trying to teach Bobby...Look past the models...look where the -8c isotherm is for bigger snows But I have trouble going for heavy accumulations right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well.... right now is the time to be concerned. since models have been trending less qpf /snow for last day . should others models catch on ...to 18z nam at 0z .....then it's off to cliff jumping. at least i'll land in 17 inches of snow. I don't think anything other than the NAM consistently showed this as a 6"+ event. So if that's your expectation, time to be concerned. If you're in the 2-4/3-6" camp like most rational people here, then there's nothing to be concerned about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So which is it? Is Kevin trying to compete with SnowNH for best model analysis?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 But I have trouble going for heavy accumulations right now. I don't blame you... I just think there are going to be some surprises with this one..and if folks are sticking their weenies into every model run they won't see it. people thought I was crazy when I said 20-30 inches would happen in the snow bomb last week. That's fine. let's just wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I mentioned earlier, that band running from sw-ne well to the north of the low, because that might over perform for someone. I think the 12/29/93 storm had that. It's something to watch, but not a guarantee. I don't think models will completely show this right now. Closing off at least at 850mb would be a big first step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I mentioned earlier, that band running from sw-ne well to the north of the low, because that might over perform for someone. I think the 12/29/93 storm had that. It's something to watch, but not a guarantee. I don't think models will completely show this right now. The forecast was butchered in NYC...the NWS dropped all headlines, I got home at 3pm and saw a massive shield of snow in southern Jersey headed due north and knew we were gonna see something decent...the advisories didnt go back up til people started reporting 3 inches of snow by 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't think anything other than the NAM consistently showed this as a 6"+ event. So if that's your expectation, time to be concerned. If you're in the 2-4/3-6" camp like most rational people here, then there's nothing to be concerned about yet. well last nite's 0z gfs was a lot more than 2-4....looked like at least 5-10. but i was in the 4-8 camp.....early pm i moved without emotionally difficulty lol to the 3-6 camp. i don't want to move anymore.....but i will lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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