Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Will be interesting to see which model gets the win on this storm. For our sake lets hope its not the JMA With the models being so "all over the map" I don't think anything will win. Nothing has really "locked" on any one solution. I've never been a fan of "so and so model "won"" - Unless a model sticks to its guns for days on end and then nails it nothing wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That might explain some of his forecasts. lol true, he is the hype master Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It agrees with the euro pretty much. What's so terrible about that? You have been here too many years to still be such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 or 12z gfs Why? It only gives us 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 or 12z gfs Yeah, I'd be pissed if the HECS on the 12Z GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 With the models being so "all over the map" I don't think anything will win. Nothing has really "locked" on any one solution. I've never been a fan of "so and so model "won"" - Unless a model sticks to its guns for days on end and then nails it nothing wins. models have been crazy even 24 hrs out almost every storm this year, so i wouldnt put much stock in any model out to over 100 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You have been here too many years to still be such a weenie. I'm pretty sure I was joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why? It only gives us 20 inches. was sarcasm bud, i want the 12z gfs to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 that should probably make you a little skeptical of it. In my 63 years I've never seen it happen and I'm only 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 .H. margusity loves that model, i think hes the only one lol Not that Henry M ever had any to begin with, but that pretty much throws his credentials out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 snow into va at hr 90 still looking miller b-ish but colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 72 hr gfs looks like it is going to hold serve, it still has the strong vortex near nova scotia to help keep the cold air damming going. At least that's my guess extrapolation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone notice 18Z NAM has a block developing east of Greenland by 84 hrs? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone notice 18Z NAM has a block developing east of Greenland by 84 hrs? http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif To my fairly untrained eye that would be a major development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 snow into va at hr 90 still looking miller b-ish but colder I bet you this is the storm the GFS will lose its hot streak on and end up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 snow into va at hr 90 still looking miller b-ish but colder Already .1+ across LWX at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone notice 18Z NAM has a block developing east of Greenland by 84 hrs? http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif yeah i saw that mitch, but im skeptical with it being hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow Mid, your at hr90? damn NCEP still at 66 Ewall is at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone notice 18Z NAM has a block developing east of Greenland by 84 hrs? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_084l.gif Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 96hrs low east of Virginia Beach, .10-.25qpf for DC/BALT with 850mb below 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wow Mid, your at hr90? damn NCEP still at 66 You can usually jump ahead if you manually input the hour you're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone notice 18Z NAM has a block developing east of Greenland by 84 hrs? http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif Weenie question of course, but I have to ask. How would this impact the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 72 hr gfs looks like it is going to hold serve, it still has the strong vortex near nova scotia to help keep the cold air damming going. At least that's my guess extrapolation will be fun to watch this slip away over the next few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 low way off the coast vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 snow into va at hr 90 still looking miller b-ish but colder H5 at 90 hours is a little deeper and about 50 miles SE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 anyone notice 18Z NAM has a block developing east of Greenland by 84 hrs? http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif GFS 18Z has that similar look at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yes. too east based to be safe. nao is already back negative now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 will be fun to watch this slip away over the next few runs... No negativity .... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 East, still get decent QPF though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS continues to drift apart from the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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