ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No I think there's people that take things out of context. I could say what I think which is that the UKMET is largely way east, the GEFS/NAM just trended significantly east and the 18z NOGAPs trended east too even though it wasn't a hit to begin with but I'm for some reason afraid of offending people over weather. Why dont you leave the comedy to Seinfeld and we stick to the weather during the storm? I also wonder why there is no talk of the potential for an inverted trough again this time. LOL, No, we full time residents of the SNE thread are a jovial bunch and enjoy playful banter throughout the year. This time period is BEFORE the storm not during. Also, if you're seeing trends that lead you to believe this storm will fizzle or be OTS make the call. After accusing Phil of making bold predictions only after the event has passed I'm sure you wouldn't want to be guilty of the same thing. I have read an immense amount of analysis from Pro mets today and I don't think anyone is talking about this storm sh iting the bed. Sam has expressed some concern about a 'screw zone' with a center leap but the consensus seems to be this is a fairly straight forward show. Again, as I have said before I actually am interested in your thoughts and as a true proponent of free speech I would never seek to silence your or anyone's thoughts. However, I am not afraid to point out that you seem to have a penchant for looking for all the ways a system can fail. Who knows, perhaps you will be the one that nails this as a failure but in the face of overwhelming opinions to the contrary I'll stick with the idea that this will indeed be a major system. Please, keep ferreting out possible problems/pitfalls with this and any other systems that come our way. That's what an open forum is for , the free expression of thoughts and ideas. Just don't be surprised when people choose to comment on your comments. It's part of the game. This isn't a matter of life and death, keep it in perspective. Have fun Scott and Think Snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think not......why? Track over ACK with a northerly sfc flow is damned nice. Mid levels will be plenty cold enough. just wondering, i would assume mixing up to the southern halves of Bristol and PYM counties, but wasn't sure if it would go any further than that verbatim, thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All of NE And yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol Good luck man, I plan on enlisting after I finish my Bachelors next Spring, hope everything goes well for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I doubt it would show up. There are distinct differences. The half wavelength of this storm is like 5 times that of Dec 05 lol. Tip I think was comparing the potential convective potency over SNE. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol take care, talk to you soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Do the SREFs show a finger of "meh" over central MA, SNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL, No, we full time residents of the SNE thread are a jovial bunch and enjoy playful banter throughout the year. This time period is BEFORE the storm not during. Also, if you're seeing trends that lead you to believe this storm will fizzle or be OTS make the call. After accusing Phil of making bold predictions only after the event has passed I'm sure you wouldn't want to be guilty of the same thing. I have read an immense amount of analysis from Pro mets today and I don't think anyone is talking about this storm sh iting the bed. Sam has expressed some concern about a 'screw zone' with a center leap but the consensus seems to be this is a fairly straight forward show. Again, as I have said before I actually am interested in your thoughts and as a true proponent of free speech I would never seek to silence your or anyone's thoughts. However, I am not afraid to point out that you seem to have a penchant for looking for all the ways a system can fail. Who knows, perhaps you will be the one that nails this as a failure but in the face of overwhelming opinions to the contrary I'll stick with the idea that this will indeed be a major system. Please, keep ferreting out possible problems/pitfalls with this and any other systems that come our way. That's what an open forum is for , the free expression of thoughts and ideas. Just don't be surprised when people choose to comment on your comments. It's part of the game. This isn't a matter of life and death, keep it in perspective. Have fun Scott and Think Snow !! And again putting words in my mouth. All I said was at 18z there was a shift east. I think I put about 25 disclaimers on it saying it was re the 18z models. The problem is when someone takes it out of context. I just watched a few systems fail the same way. I'm not saying that's the case here, I'm just saying it's understandable that the 18z all shifted east based on what they did at 500. Doesn't mean it's a trend, going to happen or is a forecast. I specifically said this storm has distinct differences even in a bad scenario being further north and having much more moisture. There's no talk of it crapping the bed. It's 2+ days away and the one thing the last few weeks has been showing us is that is about 24 hours outside of the model comfort zone. EDIT: I don't care where it snows, here north south east whatever. I get really tired of being accused of having a bias. If it snows in ski country I go skiing. If it snows here I go sledding, I don't even really keep track of how much snow falls in terms of climo or anything else. I don't put ice on my snowpack to keep it around or keep track of how many days I have it. Could care less, I don't have this attachment to snow that others have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hahahaha Henry Margisuity says 1-3 along the coast while "fighting a mixing battle" hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Do the SREFs show a finger of "meh" over central MA, SNH? I doubt it...if I get 1'' of QPF you can't be far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 just wondering, i would assume mixing up to the southern halves of Bristol and PYM counties, but wasn't sure if it would go any further than that verbatim, thnx This is a very cold system so to mix you'd almost have to have it come much closer. Outer cape..biggest risk and some risk east of the canal but I think PYM north and west are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well guys have fun, here. I probably won't post again until I am in Mississippi in two months. I hope the rest of the winter treats everyone well. Now that I am leaving on Tuesday, but really I won't have internet access tomorrow afternoon on, I just want to say that Cape COd, MA might see a three foot snowstorm this winter. Heads up Phil. Lol Be safe and take care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF mean closes off the 850 low about 10 miles east of the Central NJ coast. Then deepens and tracks just E of Montauk and then just E of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey James, Good Luck, my dad was in the Air Force and was stationed in Texas for a while. New adventures await you should be an exciting time for you. Don't forget to check in here with us. Thanks for your service from all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And again putting words in my mouth. All I said was at 18z there was a shift east. I think I put about 25 disclaimers on it saying it was re the 18z models. The problem is when someone takes it out of context. I just watched a few systems fail the same way. I'm not saying that's the case here, I'm just saying it's understandable that the 18z all shifted east based on what they did at 500. Doesn't mean it's a trend, going to happen or is a forecast. I specifically said this storm has distinct differences even in a bad scenario being further north and having much more moisture. There's no talk of it crapping the bed. It's 2+ days away and the one thing the last few weeks has been showing us is that is about 24 hours outside of the model comfort zone. EDIT: I don't care where it snows, here north south east whatever. I get really tired of being accused of having a bias. If it snows in ski country I go skiing. If it snows here I go sledding, I don't even really keep track of how much snow falls in terms of climo or anything else. I don't put ice on my snowpack to keep it around or keep track of how many days I have it. Could care less, I don't have this attachment to snow that others have. Do you think this, being, from what I understand, a more straightforward setup (less than 30 Ls spread over the country, or whatever) will allow for the models to handle it better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Do the SREFs show a finger of "meh" over central MA, SNH? This feel better? A bit more expansive later panels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good luck! My bro is in the Air Force (reserves, now). Enjoy TX good luck, bro! Hey good luck...stay safe...and thanks for your service in protection and support of all of us! Be Safe! Best of luck James. Good luck man, I plan on enlisting after I finish my Bachelors next Spring, hope everything goes well for you. take care, talk to you soon!! Be safe and take care! Thanks to everyone. This thread is awesome and I hope to continue posting after my experience at USAF basic training. I will be given the privledge to use my laptop in Tech School after the next two months and hope to do the best I can in training to pass and become a permanent USAF airman. Hope for the continued success this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREF mean closes off the 850 low about 10 miles east of the Central NJ coast. Then deepens and tracks just E of Montauk and then just E of the Cape. That my friend is a blizzard for NYC/BOS/PWM/BGR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hahahaha Henry Margisuity says 1-3 along the coast while "fighting a mixing battle" hahah Irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey James, Good Luck, my dad was in the Air Force and was stationed in Texas for a while. New adventures await you should be an exciting time for you. Don't forget to check in here with us. Thanks for your service from all of us. Thanks, pete right? I thank your father for serving our country as well and hope to become a proud member of the USAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This feel better? A bit more expansive later panels... Thanks, Jerry...I feel better. How's the cold doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks to everyone. This thread is awesome and I hope to continue posting after my experience at USAF basic training. I will be given the privledge to use my laptop in Tech School after the next two months and hope to do the best I can in training to pass and become a permanent USAF airman. Hope for the continued success this winter. Wow! Good luck man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks, Jerry...I feel better. How's the cold doing? Thanks for asking Dave. I went over the top after Thurs and it's better every day but this one was a doozy. Should be mostly gone by storm time.....each day better than the other and today is probably 75% better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Uh, oh... I'm in the bullseye... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Do you think this, being, from what I understand, a more straightforward setup (less than 30 Ls spread over the country, or whatever) will allow for the models to handle it better? I think we'll have clarity tonight on whether the 18z was a trend or not. The NAM so far has higher heights vs the 18z in the east but it is handling some aspects more similar to the 18z v 12z. Just not sure where it ends up. EDIT: BTW the 0z DID shift that old m/l center west so that was a real deal change the 18z's caught again at least through 30. I have no idea which way it goes from here, could be anything from more extreme to even flatter! 36 is just coming up now, it's 36-42 where it's kind of going to be decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mainers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks, pete right? I thank your father for serving our country as well and hope to become a proud member of the USAF. Adding my wishes....really really enjoyed reading your posts and like all the energy you bring to the discussion. Since the last storm didn't work out to be your going away present, how about we dedicate this one to you? Even better we speed it up 12 hours, you get stranded, experience the blizzard and then have tales to tell your new mates. Best to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Uh, oh... I'm in the bullseye... that's not always a bad thing, Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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