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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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NAM has a 981mb low over Newport... so it's a bit east of what I was looking at with the more coarse resolution maps.

Wow. lol

The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it.

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Well taking this run verbatim for my BY:

Heavy snow as H7 low forms under us in synch with other centers. It comes so close we dry slot as temps go warmish (mid 30s) and I get some light rain. H7 low moves east with the rest of the system and it snows steadily again for several hours. This is verbatim....a good front end dump, taint mid storm followed by snow as the winds flip back more northerly. This evolution doesn't happen this way that often so I think the solution will not be this way but we'll see.

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The nam is such a piece of junk. it does this with every other storm then gets slapped back to reality inside of 36. I'm sick and tired of it.

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Whoa, you mean to tell me the NAM has done this before!?!?!?!

Nothing shocks me at this point. We're about to learn whether the theory all the model flip flops were blocking related vs it's a modeling/data issue.

once again it's h42 where things really go bezerk compared to previous NAM runs. Might be right this time who knows. 42 seems to be the magic number.

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Pretty much what I said five minutes ago. It's an incredible solution for this area and I'd need to see support to suspend my disbelief.

I wouldn't bet against it at this point. i think it could tuck close to SW LI for a time then slide ENE and slow. i woud hope the low tracking from westerly , RI to plymouth is probably the NW extent of likely scenarios.

I think i would be mostly snow out here. i would probably get absolutely hammered.:weight_lift:

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I wouldn't bet against it at this point. i think it could tuck close to SW LI for a time then slide ENE and slow. i woud hope the low tracking from westerly , RI to plymouth is probably the NW extent of likely scenarios.

I think i would be mostly snow out here.

I'll bet on every other piece of guidance....call me crazy, but.....

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