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NNE slowly approaching winter


dendrite

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Heh, my brother was at the Tuck Rule game--said it was a blast and I'm sure they all had plenty of anti-freeze circulatiing through the system, lol.

Only one snow game in my past, Dartmouth at Princeton in the late 1950s. Had something like a snowsquall during the 1st half - 1" snow in about 30 min, though little wind - then the sun came out and it all melted during 2nd half. The stands were all concrete benches, and the mel****er pouring down forced everyone (in our area, at least) to remain standing or get an icewater bath.

I've only seen on TV one game with truly deep snow on the field, Wash/NYG on 12/11/60, 8-10" powder (snow stopped during 2nd half) such that a fumble might disappear into an on-field snowpile. Pats came close with the Fins game in 2003, shortly after the 12/6 dump. Seeing 30,000 people tossing snow into the air following Bruschi's late game pick-6 remains one of the weirdest things I've watched.

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Absolutely dumping snow in Stowe on the Mountain Road here near Topnotch.

3.5" since 2pm but most has come since 4pm... averaging probably 3/4ths of an inch per hour since 4.

Still coming down! Chittenden and Lamoille Counties look like they are taking the brunt of this so far.

Zone Forecast for here tonight... nice little surprise event:

Tonight Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 5 inches possible. Lows around 13. Light and variable winds.

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Event totals: 9.7” Snow/2.05” L.E.

Thursday 12/16/2010 6:00 P.M. update: Very similar to yesterday, the drive home featured very light snow in Burlington, which gradually intensified right from the start as I headed east through the foothills and into the mountains. Roads were dry at first, and whereas yesterday, snow cover on the roads began in Williston, today it was in Richmond. It was also just after the center of Richmond that the snow really started to intensify. It was never snowing incredibly hard based on long distance visibility measurements, but presumably due to the notable increase in flake size, visibility in the headlights was quite challenging and called for slower travel. Even with the lows and fogs it was tough. We’d had small flakes for a couple of days, but now the big flakes are back, and the fluff factor is up. We are now getting close to double digits for the combination of the cutter and subsequent upper level low throwback. We’ll probably be close by tomorrow morning since there are still big flakes falling steadily out there. It does look like it’s partly cloudy directly above us, so this precipitation is presumably coming over from the mountains to the west.

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 55.0

Snow Density: 1.8%

Temperature: 21.2 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy/Light Snow (3-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

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Absolutely dumping snow in Stowe on the Mountain Road here near Topnotch.

3.5" since 2pm but most has come since 4pm... averaging probably 3/4ths of an inch per hour since 4.

Still coming down! Chittenden and Lamoille Counties look like they are taking the brunt of this so far.

Zone Forecast for here tonight... nice little surprise event:

Tonight Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 5 inches possible. Lows around 13. Light and variable winds.

That's awesome Scott, it looks like we've been to the south of that action, although since the snowboard clearing there is another 0.3 inches worth of flakes to get this location to the 10-inch mark for this event. It was a few days ago that I least cleared the back deck, but I decided to hit it again tonight and there were 4 to 5 inches of beautiful light to medium weight champagne on there. It was so beautiful, dry and pristine, I almost didn't want to clear it. No complaints at all about our daily doses of white, although if it were to be interrupted with a synoptic system that would certainly be nice. A solid synoptic dump would really put a lot of the slopes in good shape for the upcoming holiday period.

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Hey guys...any of you know the snow situation for Manchester VT? I am going there for a couple of days at the end of the month. It looks like it might be in a valley between the Berks and the Greens? Anyone know how they do in upslope situation? Do they get downsloped from the Berks or maybe do they get into some Greens upslope?

Appreciate any help here. Thanks.

Mark

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Event totals: 10.4” Snow/2.08” L.E.

Thursday 12/17/2010 6:00 A.M. update: I found steady light snow with reasonably large (~1/3-1/2 inch) flakes and reduced visibility for driving all the way from Waterbury to Richmond this morning. In the Richmond flats area I was able to get a sense of the overall visibility distance and would say it was probably around ½ mile. Route 2 was snow-covered all the way through to Richmond, and combined with the big flakes, visibility was again difficult and I had to take it a bit slower than normal dry road speeds. I stopped in at the Richmond market to pick up some things, and you could see that there was an inch or two of new fluff on all surfaces. The fluffy snow gave the downtown that festive, holiday look. I-89 was generally snow-free, at least for the tires even if the middle of the lane had some snow coverage. From Williston through to Burlington it’s still been snowing, but the intensity is notably lighter than out in the mountain valleys. Based on the radar, it seems that the more southern sections of Chittenden County and the I-89 corridor are getting some of the snowfall action this morning, vs. the way it was more to the north last night as Powderfreak mentioned:

17DEC10A.gif

With another 0.7 inches overnight, we have reached double digits for this event with the cutter/ULL, with at least a bit more to go based on today’s activity. According to the NWS summary in their discussion (below), we are approaching the end of this event as the ULL finally weakens; so with the event nearing its end, it looks like it will ultimately produce about half the snowfall of what last week’s ULL produced for our location:

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LESSEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

Looking at the 7-day snow totals for Bolton and Stowe, it looks like they will end up close to the two-foot mark in terms of their snow totals.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 23.3

Snow Density: 4.3%

Temperature: 18.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

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FO SHO!

days of strong NW upslope flow fail to produce the kind of snow simple SW flow off lake ontario produced overnight, lol. Comapred to Gore this year, whiteface is in a different world. Its too bad they loose a ton during frequent strong wind events. I will be at the face tomorrow and the weather looks great, light wind!

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Ahh winter-wonderland out there again this morning... 3-4" of fresh powder clinging to all the tree branches, fence posts, railings, etc and now the sun is coming out. Gotta love the post-card scene here in Stowe this morning.

We've had measurable snow just about every day this month so far and its starting to get into my head that this has been a "snowy" month though I know that's not true for probably 90% of New England.

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What a week of model watching!! I can't ever remember the guidance being all over the place like it has the past few days. I was really excited yesterday after 2 back to back Euro runs showing a big hit. It did bother me that the Euro, after being way out to sea 2 days ago had such a dramatic shift west in one run. Well it looks like the threat is over, I don't think NNE will get anything except perhaps Maine if the low retrogrades late in the game. To me this all goes to show how far the science of Meterology still has to go. My friends must think Im nuts the past 3 days, it's off, no it's on, wait maybe out to sea.

Time to take a break from model watching.

The big lakes are freezing up about 10 days earlier than normal. Living by Newfound Lake I was concerned yesterday seeing a thing coat of ice developing and then getting a foot of snow on top that people would think the ice was safer than it was.

Gene

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Models have been very disappointing last night and this morning with respect to the Sunday / Monday event so far but there is still plenty of time.

The norlun trough snow event along the coast is starting to pile up some impressive totals so far, just a few flurries out my way :

MAINE ...HANCOCK COUNTY...

SEDGWICK 8.0 914 AM 12/17 DOT DOT84

BLUE HILL 7.0 758 AM 12/17 SPOTTER HA032

ELLSWORTH (EAST) 5.7 901 AM 12/17 COOP ELLM1 22F

BAR HARBOR 5.0 914 AM 12/17 DOT DOT31

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Well, at least the ground is white, both IMBY and here in AUG, and likely to stay that way thru Christmas given the forecast temps, storm or no storm (unless all we get is a warmer than expected marine-flooded retro :thumbsdown: .)

Still awaiting a 2" snowfall, or more than 1" OG. If this early week thing fizzles, looks like the 2" threshold falls in 2011. Still lots of time for changes, especially given the incredible magnitude of model shifting seen in the past two days.

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Ahh winter-wonderland out there again this morning... 3-4" of fresh powder clinging to all the tree branches, fence posts, railings, etc and now the sun is coming out. Gotta love the post-card scene here in Stowe this morning.

We've had measurable snow just about every day this month so far and its starting to get into my head that this has been a "snowy" month though I know that's not true for probably 90% of New England.

I really had a feeling that this would be a very snowy month for the Greens. Glad to see it's paying off as well.

Reports from some internet skiers say two tumbs up.

As for the 'face.

SW flow is pure $$ there. It's way better than NW flow upslope events. The weather just funnels down the northern side of Algonquin, right into Wilmington pass and parks right over whiteface. In these events I almost feel the streamer right off ontario coming to a stop on the SW face of WF. Good thing that's where the ski area is. Yea it looses it in wind events but what doesn't?

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lol ... love it.

Staring at the distinct possibility of a brown Christmas. Suck pill.

yep, after how last year played out and the way this one has started, I'm already becoming more pessamistic. I admit, I am whiner about the weather, but I had this feeling the next event was OTS. I mean really, 2" of snow for most of December? Pathetic. Everyone else seems to have recorded some nice events. Just this morning, mid-coast ME locked in on some 6-8" snows, last week it was central, western sections and downeast. VT is basking in feet of snow and is in a whole different wrld. southwest ME is getting the screw job every chance. I said it last week and I'll say it again, I'll put 10 bucks on the table my backyard will be brown on the 25th. Call me negative, but I'm frustrated and just want to jump on my snowmobile :guitar:

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yep, after how last year played out and the way this one has started, I'm already becoming more pessamistic. I admit, I am whiner about the weather, but I had this feeling the next event was OTS. I mean really, 2" of snow for most of December? Pathetic. Everyone else seems to have recorded some nice events. Just this morning, mid-coast ME locked in on some 6-8" snows, last week it was central, western sections and downeast. VT is basking in feet of snow and is in a whole different wrld. southwest ME is getting the screw job every chance. I said it last week and I'll say it again, I'll put 10 bucks on the table my backyard will be brown on the 25th. Call me negative, but I'm frustrated and just want to jump on my snowmobile :guitar:

This would not surprise me. After all, that's just 8 days away. We probably whiff over the weekend, might have a shot at an inverted trough or a retrograde - neither of which I'm counting on - around mid-week and then a next possible storm right around Christmas. Brown Xmas likely, I think.

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I mean really, 2" of snow for most of December? Pathetic. Everyone else seems to have recorded some nice events. Just this morning, mid-coast ME locked in on some 6-8" snows, last week it was central, western sections and downeast. VT is basking in feet of snow and is in a whole different wrld. southwest ME is getting the screw job every chance. I said it last week and I'll say it again, I'll put 10 bucks on the table my backyard will be brown on the 25th. Call me negative, but I'm frustrated and just want to jump on my snowmobile :guitar:

I'd argue about how much of western Maine (mts yes, foothills, meh) to include, even though my total snowfall is 3X what you've seen. Still, it took me 7 events to pile up those 6.5" and your lone snowfall beats any one of mine. I should have white ground for Christmas, though, unless the possible wrap/retro sucks in too much air from the gulfstream. Be nice to get something ON Christmas; in 12 years here I've had the grand total of 0.2" fall on 12/25, out of 229" for the entire 12 Decembers. It's the least snowy day of the month, and 2nd least (Jan 22, 0.1" total) for any date Dec thru early Mar. The Grinch has held sway.

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VT is basking in feet of snow and is in a whole different wrld.

Meh, not the whole state by a long shot. The big winners in the retrograde set-up were confined the north-central part of the state and the Kingdom to a lesser extent. We only got a couple inches around here (east central VT). However, I'm up to 9" for the season, have 3-4" on the ground and the trees are white, so that's a good thing.

Certainly hope you folks get yours though....

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Meh, not the whole state by a long shot. The big winners in the retrograde set-up were confined the north-central part of the state and the Kingdom to a lesser extent. We only got a couple inches around here (east central VT). However, I'm up to 9" for the season, have 3-4" on the ground and the trees are white, so that's a good thing.

Certainly hope you folks get yours though....

We will, In 2011.................. :weight_lift:

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How could the whiff get worse? This is latest from the CAR AFD...

THE WEAK OCCLUSION WILL INTRODUCE WARMER AND MOISTER MARITIME AIR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL

I love me some retro. :thumbsdown:

CAR is already +9 for the month. About +10.1 gets them the Dec record, to go with 11/09 and 4/10 (plus 2nd for each of the 3 months JFM.)

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Meh, not the whole state by a long shot. The big winners in the retrograde set-up were confined the north-central part of the state and the Kingdom to a lesser extent. We only got a couple inches around here (east central VT). However, I'm up to 9" for the season, have 3-4" on the ground and the trees are white, so that's a good thing.

Certainly hope you folks get yours though....

Well said Allenson, long shot INDEED! Talk about variability, not only in NNE, not only in Vermont, but in 3 miles. Everywhere I go in Vermont the amounts rise and fall with alarming rate. Some places are buried, some are near bare. I have about 5" og here in Stowe. Some places have 2 ft, in Stowe. And I am not talking about up at the mtn either. It's crazy, but fun. AS long as it looks wintery right now I am happy. Nothing worse than day upon day below and well below freezing watching the wood and oil disappear without snow. So at least it LOOKS like winter. But we could use some serious widespread dumps. The skiing is good though. As powderfreak has pointed out. Today was a very nice day on the hill even though I only had time to take 2 runs. BTW powder I live in Mansfield view not far from J24vt aka Al. Whom I also work with. My (saturdays) job at the Mtn starts in a week so I hope it's a good Xmas week this year. Certainly looks like, while the place may not be Buried by natural, the temps/pattern hold out long enough to give the touristas a decent visit. Unlike so many rainy ice laden Xmas weeks over the past 20 yrs. I'm just rambling now :) It is my nature. Ski hard, snow hard, and smile no matter what life throws at you! And may all our NNE and SNE brethren eventually get what they need. SNOW! I can't feel too much pity right now. Last winter sucked for N Vt and it's safe to say it was my worst winter in 25 yrs. This one already blows it away.

Dave

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