NNE slowly approaching winter

[Lava Rock]

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 248 PM EST SUNDAY...ON MONDAY...AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO

FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO

CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY

SLOW PROCESS WITH EASTERN VERMONT NOT CHANGING OVER UNTIL LATE IN

THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING AND BE FALLING

INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MID 30S ACROSS

VERMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY

TILTED AND SETTLES NEARLY ON TOP OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTHWEST

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE

EFFECT SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY...BUT IT

DEPENDS ON JUST WHERE THE BAND SETS UP. AS WINDS BECOME MORE

NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE

REGION BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO ENHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN

ON UPSLOPE FLOW WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SHOULD

SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. 850MB TEMPS

DROP TO -10C TO -15C WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE

SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER

AND COLD AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN

MANY LOCATIONS TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS DROPPING EVEN FURTHER INTO THE

SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 248 PM EST SUNDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN...CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA TUE NGT-WED WITH SOME

RETROGRESSION NNW BACK INTO QUEBEC.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHWEST UPSLOPE

REGIONS OF NORTHERN NY-NORTHERN VT LATE WED-THU...ALTHOUGH THE

MAGNITUDE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEARLY AS BAD. HOWEVER...THAT STILL

MEANS LIKELY PLOWABLE EVEN FOR NRN VLYS INCLUDING VT PORTION OF

CHAMPLAIN VLY.

SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WED POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE

PREVALENT WED NGT-THU AND THEN AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND

PULLS AWAY BACK TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER EVENT FRI AND LESS SO

EACH DAY THRU THE WEEKEND.

NIGHTTIME LOWS LIKELY NOT AS BAD AS COULD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SCT

-SHSN ACTIVITY THRU THE PERIOD.

GREAT SNOWMAKING WEATHER AND WINTER ENTHUSIAST STRETCH...STILL BE

CAREFUL OF PONDS/LAKES AS ANY ICE IS RELATIVELY NEW AND WEAK.-- End Changed Discussion --

jeez, even in tropical storm conditions, you guys still end up on your feet. not seeing plowable snow here for awhile

[MaineJayhawk]

jeez, even in tropical storm conditions, you guys still end up on your feet. not seeing plowable snow here for awhile

Keeping an eye on next weekend.

[Lava Rock]

Keeping an eye on next weekend.

i'm not holding my breath. i admit I am pessimistic, but these kind of storms and what seems to be a new trend in winter weather irks me. someone mentioned 3-4" possibility for weds/thurs, but local mets have snow showers and that's about it. maybe the mtns will get some. up to 49F. time to let the stove go out

[MaineJayhawk]

i'm not holding my breath. i admit I am pessimistic, but these kind of storms and what seems to be a new trend in winter weather irks me. someone mentioned 3-4" possibility for weds/thurs, but local mets have snow showers and that's about it. maybe the mtns will get some. up to 49F. time to let the stove go out

Yeah, next weekend is far off model-wise. I want to see it get to under 4 days, which has not happened yet for us. The time will come and I'm always optimistic that the next one is it.

[Lava Rock]

Yeah, next weekend is far off model-wise. I want to see it get to under 4 days, which has not happened yet for us. The time will come and I'm always optimistic that the next one is it.

how were you able to resize your jpg image in your sig? I am trying to upload one from my weather site and it doesn't matter how small I make it, it won't allow me to post due to the size.

[MaineJayhawk]

how were you able to resize your jpg image in your sig? I am trying to upload one from my weather site and it doesn't matter how small I make it, it won't allow me to post due to the size.

Photoshop. I could resize it for you if you like.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.34” L.E.

Sunday 12/12/2010 3:00 P.M. update: We were riding up at Stowe for a training day today, and the snow had just started up when we pulled into the Spruce Peak base area at around 8:00 A.M. The snowfall quickly ramped up in intensity, and once the flakes got big, it dumped huge flakes all morning. I’d say that when things got going, it was snowing at pretty close to an inch an hour, and the conditions on the slopes were great. It’s usually awesome to be out on the slopes when it’s dumping and the snow surface is getting better by the minute, but the extra powder was especially nice today since we were on snowboards, and I really don’t find snowboards all that fun in hard snow. We headed in for lunch around 1:00 P.M., and just before that, we started to get some very granular flakes coming down that would sting if they hit you in the face. We were inside from about 1:00 P.M. to 2:30 P.M. eating lunch, taking care of paperwork, and discussing the training, and until about 2:00 P.M. it was still snowing, but the intensity had let up a lot. By somewhere in the 2:00 to 2:30 P.M. range, the precipitation had changed over to mostly rain, and we decided to call it a day since the snow surface wasn’t going to improve any further. Even when we were leaving the mountain between 2:30 P.M. and 3:00 P.M., we could still see that some of the bigger raindrops had crystals in them. Steady rain fell on the way back to the house, but it was pretty light by the time we got home. I was guessing that the base area picked up 2 to 3 inches of snow during the morning, and it sounds like 3 inches based on Powderfreak’s report. I took a shot of the heavy snowfall in the base area at around 11:00 A.M.:

Since we couldn’t bring the boys with us today, my mom came over to watch them, and she grabbed a couple of snow measurements at the house during the morning. There were 0.8 inches of snow on the board as of 10:10 A.M., 2.0 inches as of 12:10 A.M., and that’s as high as it got before settling down with the warming temperatures. The 0.34 inches of liquid that we picked up includes a bit of rain that fell after the snow. So I’m not how much of that fell as snow or other forms of frozen precipitation, but I’d say a good chunk of it. On the mountain, we did find that the snow was denser at the base area elevations (~1,500’ or so), so temperatures were certainly cooler higher up. So far, the event has actually been a net gain in the snowpack here; due to the new snow we went from 6.5 inches on the ground this morning to 7.5 inches as of 3:00 P.M. For the early part of the evening there wasn’t much going on in terms of precipitation, but now some rain has moved back in, so we’ll have to see how it interacts with the snowpack overnight.

This event pushed us past the 30-inch mark for the season’s snowfall at the house, but we are still running about 14 inches behind the pace of ’07-’08. In terms of getting back to snowfall with this event, the BTV NWS discussion indicates that snow starts mixing back in for Northern New York after midnight, and over here at some point tomorrow. Our NWS point forecast calls for a low of 39 tonight, with ¼ to ½ inch of rain, snow mixing in after 1:00 P.M. tomorrow, and 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation tomorrow night.

The BTV guys are watching for more snow this week, as mentioned in their latest discussion (I saw that Powderfreak had this in his post as well, but I kept it in anyway):

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 248 PM EST SUNDAY...HERE WE GO AGAIN...CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA TUE NGT-WED WITH SOME RETROGRESSION NNW BACK INTO QUEBEC.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHWEST UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN NY-NORTHERN VT LATE WED-THU

Some details from the 3:00 P.M. observations are below:

New Snow: 2.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.34 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 6.1

Snow Density: 16.5%

Temperature: 35.0 F

Sky: Light rain

Snow at the stake: 7.5 inches

[powderfreak]

Yeah, next weekend is far off model-wise. I want to see it get to under 4 days, which has not happened yet for us. The time will come and I'm always optimistic that the next one is it.

Sooner or later it will snow for you guys... climo says it has to happen at some point and the further we get into the season, the more likely one of these threats comes to pass.

And just some thoughts to no-one in particular...I really hope you guys outside of ski country get some snow with that threat next weekend. I won't even mind if it misses us completely up here in NW New England just because I want to see the lower elevation/coastal plain folks get some winter fun. This board will be a lot more fun once everyone sees a solid, plowable snowfall. Right now there's just so much pessimism going around as folks are getting anxious to get that first one out of the way... I almost feel bad discussing snow threats this week for ski country because everyone else keeps on waiting, and no one really cares to hear it, haha. People seem extra sensitive and emotional towards snow these days.

[powderfreak]

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.34” L.E.

I was guessing that the base area picked up 2 to 3 inches of snow during the morning, and it sounds like 3 inches based on Powderfreak’s report. I took a shot of the heavy snowfall in the base area at around 11:00 A.M.:

Nice, report J.Spin. Speaking of snow on Mansfield... I have been almost appalled at how bad the "new" snow reports from the Stake have been so far this season. During that huge upslope event they only recorded 13" total in the "new" category yet the snow depth jumped like 26" (which would be more indicative of a ~30-36" storm total and would jive with places like Underhill and Cambridge). Its hard to imagine that all the low elevation spots surrounding Mansfield picked up significantly more snow than the co-op at 3,900ft, but that's what the "new" snowfall readings would have you believe (however they did record almost 2" of liquid at 5F and somehow that translated to 13" haha).

Now, today's report indicates only 1" of new at 3,900ft when there was about three times that amount at 1:30pm at 1,500ft. I know it has been raining since then (apparently freezing rain given the high/current temp) but with temps below freezing, I can't imagine it all melted that quickly. It will be worth monitoring this winter if the readings get any better... the melted liquid, temperature, and snow depth readings all make a lot of sense but the "new" snow reading hasn't even been close.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT         SNOW
                  24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER     NEW TOTAL SWE

MOUNT MANSFIELD     0.39    30  19  30                1.0  24    

[skierinvermont]

Nice, report J.Spin. Speaking of snow on Mansfield... I have been almost appalled at how bad the "new" snow reports from the Stake have been so far this season. During that huge upslope event they only recorded 13" total in the "new" category yet the snow depth jumped like 26" (which would be more indicative of a ~30-36" storm total and would jive with places like Underhill and Cambridge). Its hard to imagine that all the low elevation spots surrounding Mansfield picked up significantly more snow than the co-op at 3,900ft, but that's what the "new" snowfall readings would have you believe (however they did record almost 2" of liquid at 5F and somehow that translated to 13" haha).

Now, today's report indicates only 1" of new at 3,900ft when there was about three times that amount at 1:30pm at 1,500ft. I know it has been raining since then (apparently freezing rain given the high/current temp) but with temps below freezing, I can't imagine it all melted that quickly. It will be worth monitoring this winter if the readings get any better... the melted liquid, temperature, and snow depth readings all make a lot of sense but the "new" snow reading hasn't even been close.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT 		SNOW
          		24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER 	NEW TOTAL SWE

MOUNT MANSFIELD 	0.39    30  19  30                1.0  24    

Maybe somebody meant to type 31 instead of 13?

[powderfreak]

Maybe somebody meant to type 31 instead of 13?

Haha, that 13" was over the course of a couple of days though.

Last Tuesday, the station received 1" of liquid at temps in the single digits (we were seeing ridiculous ratios) and only reported 10" of "new" snow... yet the snow depth increased 19" during that 24 hr period.

Then on Wednesday, they got like another half inch of liquid, again at single digits, reported 3" of "new" snow and yet the snow depth took another big jump.

I have no idea if whoever is reporting this doesn't think about it, or what, but you'd think some red flags would go up when the precipitation/temp/snow depth all point to a much different outcome.

[powderfreak]

Looks like its going to snow this afternoon and tonight... I like how the models have been showing a resurgence of QPF over VT later today and tonight after we are cold enough to snow. Snowpack at my place was still around 4-5" of waterlogged snow (you step on it and see water at the bottom of your footprint). Looks like we will hold solid snow cover and when this freezes up into a glacier, it will likely be with us till April haha.

Winter Weather Advisory and BTV's storm total forecast would give this area 5-6" of new snow...which matches up with what they have in the point 'n click.

NYZ028-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-132100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0017.101213T1800Z-101214T1500Z/

EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-

ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-

WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-

EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLATTSBURGH...PORT HENRY...

TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

259 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

10 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

10 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN

GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WESTERN SLOPES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE

AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO

TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING BY LATE

THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAPID FREEZING OF ANY STANDING

WATER WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SLIPPERY

ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT

WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY AT

TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS.

* WINDS...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...EARLY HIGHS IN THE 40S...BUT FALLING THROUGHOUT

THE DAY TO THE UPPER 20S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS NEAR 15 ABOVE

TONIGHT.

[red]

Record highs this morning to go with heavy rain and wind. Bangor - 57, Houlton - 48 and Millinocket - 52. My meager snow pack didn't have a chance. Grass is still nice and green though.

[MaineJayhawk]

Record highs this morning to go with heavy rain and wind. Bangor - 57, Houlton - 48 and Millinocket - 52. My meager snow pack didn't have a chance. Grass is still nice and green though.

You could even get another mowing in if you hurry.

[dryslot]

55.8F, 2.64" -RN, 48 mph gust 3:33 am........

Some nice weenie porn on the 00z and 06z gfs for next weekend, Euro has a surpressed OTS solution this far out thats where we want it, Looks like we will have some type of storm as the models and pattern has been hitting on this........

[Lava Rock]

ended with 2.45" rain and 37mph gust. time to start the healing

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/1.31” L.E.

We picked up an additional 0.97” of liquid since my last report at 3:00 P.M., and it has made the snowpack a much denser substance than it was yesterday at this time. It’s also condensed the snowpack down from 6.5 inches in depth yesterday morning to 4.5 inches in depth this morning, but it should be much more rugged once it solidifies. Prior to this the snowpack was rather fluffy and there wasn’t really a base, but that will change after this event. In terms of temperatures, I heard some numbers in the 40s F this morning in Roger Hill’s report, but our temperature was at 36.0 F at 6:00 A.M. when I left the house. We generally seemed to be in the upper 30s F whenever I happened to look at the thermometer yesterday evening and overnight, although I did see it go as high as 41.0 F at one point. From what I could see in the dark this morning, the snowpack in the center of Waterbury seemed similar to what we’ve got at the house, although there appeared to be some bare ground in the Richmond area. In the Burlington area I haven’t seen any snow on the ground, but there were only a couple of inches to begin with, and they probably got rather warm, so that’s not too surprising.

Thanks for the update on the upcoming snow Powderfreak, I figured we’d be getting some but I didn’t know the NWS would raise winter weather advisories or that the forecast would be for so much. It’s always nice to wake up to that. The point and click for our location has us down for 4 to 7 inches through tomorrow, and it looks like we are somewhere in the 7-inch range in the accumulations map you posted. The next point and click block to the west of us actually has a slightly higher snowfall forecast of 4 to 8 inches, in line with the NWS expecting enhancement for the western slopes. Higher elevations for Bolton Valley up above us have 4 to 9 inches for their point and click, and the Mt. Mansfield one is 4 to 10 inches. It would be nice to get as much new snow as possible this week, to avoid having to deal with skiing on the hard base that is going to set up from this event.

Since you added in BTV’s snow accumulations map above, I added in the advisories map and the Northern Vermont zoom in section for the accumulations:

[ono]

how much of a hit did the upper elevations take with this? 4-5" of concrete at the base isn't too shabby.

[powderfreak]

how much of a hit did the upper elevations take with this? 4-5" of concrete at the base isn't too shabby.

The 4" I referenced this morning was down in the village... more like 6" towards the Matterhorn in non-wind effect areas (where you are supposed to measure depth). In the woods up here at 1,550ft it looks like there's still 6-8" of depth in non-wind effected areas.

Overall this was much better than I expected... the 3" of paste yesterday really helped things I think. There are bare spots on the mountain this morning, but then other areas that still have two feet of natural on the ground. This was to be expected with the severe blowing and drifting that occurred all last week during the upslope event.

You can tell that the snow cover is very "wind" oriented right now... bare spots are in the usual wind prone areas such as wide open areas (ie. around the parking lots and base areas that get wind hammered).

Overall though, snowpack has held better than expected.

With 4" or so of soggy snow still in the village in non-wind effect areas (again, bare spots where the wind scoured the depth down before the rain) there's still a pretty decent snow cover in this area.

Here's a webcam view from down in town, not far from my village location... as you can see, some areas are scoured but on average there's 4" (poked around with a ruler at 5am this morning before leaving my house) and that jives with J.Spin's 4.5" depth at 495ft in Waterbury.

[powderfreak]

how much of a hit did the upper elevations take with this? 4-5" of concrete at the base isn't too shabby.

Oh yeah, and once this freezes up... this will be with us until it all melts out in April/May. Kinda cool to look out and think that this will be the last snow to melt out come springtime.

[j24vt]

Stowe is running a contest in Facebook today. Guess what time the rain changes to snow at the base lodge and win two lift tickets.

[ono]

no kidding- that's really not much loss. if MRG fared similarly with the rain, then this wasn't a knock down for them. they had plenty up on top of the double- will have to go check on that tomorrow.

call me crazy, but those spots where a lot of blow-in occured (like the bypass area, and below the stake) held onto the snow well and it becomes rock solid 18-24" base, it may not be too long for some of the upper mountain low angle woods to open up.

[powderfreak]

Stowe is running a contest in Facebook today. Guess what time the rain changes to snow at the base lodge and win two lift tickets.

Yep... just made the call. Rain has changed to snow in the base area at 10:14am.

We changed over at 3,600ft (top of Gondi) at 9:30am.

[powderfreak]

no kidding- that's really not much loss. if MRG fared similarly with the rain, then this wasn't a knock down for them. they had plenty up on top of the double- will have to go check on that tomorrow.

call me crazy, but those spots where a lot of blow-in occured (like the bypass area, and below the stake) held onto the snow well and it becomes rock solid 18-24" base, it may not be too long for some of the upper mountain low angle woods to open up.

Yeah, honestly after doing my ski around this morning, the woods almost fared better than the trails. However, I think that was due to the considerable blowing and drifting during the upslope events. Trails got scoured and woods remained wind sheltered. There's a pretty solid cover still in the woods outside of creek beds and given what I checked out today, glades and low angle woods could be skiable pretty quickly now if this stuff freezes solid. With a concrete base like that, even if its only 6-12" deep, if you don't see anything poking out of the glacier, you aren't going to hit anything as you now have a bed surface to bottom out on.

Awesome morning here watching the snow level lower. Around 9:30 riding up the gondi you could see the snow falling on the upper mountain due to a distinct visibility change, and then as you get close to the snow level, you start to see a few mangled flakes mixing in, then in about 20 seconds of ride time, you ride right up through the snow line and into a nice steady moderate snow.

Then skiing down, I'd ski to just below the snow level and wait for it... it took about 5 minutes for it to move through any particular elevation. Then once it was snowing, I'd ski down another 200 verts and wait for it again. Awesome to witness it happening all the way down the hill until finally at 10:14am it hit the 1,550ft base elevation.

Also, for anyone curious, the rain didn't change over until we hit 33F. We started mixing at 35-36F but didn't get a full changeover till 33F.

[gravitywave]

let the healing begin....

snow mixed with rain now in the CPV. i got all excited when we got a brief period of great fat flakes a few minutes ago, but that's calmed back down now. still, the changeover is happening.

nice to wake this A.M. to the WWA, we need it now (no snow cover left here, except the old plowpiles!)

EDIT: in reference to powder's temp range for the snow change-over, it was 37 when I got up, it's 36 now as the snow starts to mix in - we'll see where the full changeover happens as the mercury continues to fall!

[drew13btv]

1/4 mile away from BTV and the transition to snow is almost fully done.

[J.Spin]

Here on the UVM campus in Burlington, the rain changed over to snow at roughly 11:40 A.M.

[Mad River]

no kidding- that's really not much loss. if MRG fared similarly with the rain, then this wasn't a knock down for them. they had plenty up on top of the double- will have to go check on that tomorrow.

call me crazy, but those spots where a lot of blow-in occured (like the bypass area, and below the stake) held onto the snow well and it becomes rock solid 18-24" base, it may not be too long for some of the upper mountain low angle woods to open up.

I skied Mad River Saturday. Amazing how much snow can collect in the mountains while the valleys get just a few inches. Looking at the webcam it looks like they were able to hold on to a lot of it too. It may actually be beneficial to have a solid layer underneath any new snow that comes our way. Since most of what fell was so fluffy, we needed a little 'base building' material. Now bring on the orographic machine!

[gravitywave]

yep, went over to all snow about 30 minutes ago, air temp 35

[tamarack]

Still about 50 in Maine (HUL/PQI/CAR tops with 54), though the heaviest rain has departed the GYX CWA. IMBY we had 1/2" snow 10A-3P yest, then 2.2" rain; nothing but brown ground. The warmth and rain thawed the top 1/2" or so of our gravel road, and my 2WD spun a bit on the way out this morning. We get this "slime effect" each spring, but then it all thaws and smooths out. Now we may be looking at ruts-under-snow (when we get snow) for the winter. Yay!

Saw puddles in fields this AM where I've never before seen them - hvy rain plus frozen soil. Our logging contractor on Andover West Surplus was flattening the waterbars on the winter-only road system last week, preparing for startup. Doppler radar shows that area having gotten about 4" and probably no more than the 1st 1/4" LE was frozen. Hope the Thurs/Fri cold put sufficient frost in the roads to prevent serious soil movement.

Those earlier gfs runs looked nice and juicy out at d8-9. That storm is totally gone from the 12z run. Maybe that's a good thing a week out?