Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Let's post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Let's post here Like night and day... 12z GFS precip at 1 pm on 1/8: 18z NAM at same time With the 18z NAM looking more like the Euro the 18z GFS should be an interesting run to watch. I'm not going to get to see the 00z runs since I need sleep badly but I feel pretty confident we are going to get really good agreement tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 New AFD from BMX with the words snow and inches in it I love reading their AFD's, they must be fun to work with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 With the 18z NAM looking more like the Euro the 18z GFS should be an interesting run to watch. I'm not going to get to see the 00z runs since I need sleep badly but I feel pretty confident we are going to get really good agreement tonight. No need to stay up for Euro runs as the Euro is not the only model sniffing this one out luckily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No need to stay up for Euro runs as the Euro is not the only model sniffing this one out luckily. Yep which is a good thing, gotta wonder when they do their typical flop. Though this is different from the Christmas storm since it was a Euro vs. GFS all the way until about 3 days out. This could be one that both get right from mid range....well lets hope anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, I didn't sleep much between 12/20-12/26 because of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No need to stay up for Euro runs as the Euro is not the only model sniffing this one out luckily. I've been sleeping between the 11 and 5 ish and it has worked well. Getting the EC a little later doesn't hurt anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 New AFD from BMX with the words snow and inches in it I love reading their AFD's, they must be fun to work with! Yeah overall every local nws is pretty bullish for so far out which is pretty notable. They were with the last one too, especially gsp. Pretty wild to see twice in as many days the local offices being bullish on winter weather so far in advance. I'm just not used to that lol. I really like what i see for alabama and ms. I think it's been a while since they have gotten a truly widespread big snow so I would be really happy for them if this pans out as currently advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do we yet have a life expectancy with this storm? What I mean is, do we know if it will be gone (ots or up past Delmarva) by the 11th yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No need to stay up for Euro runs as the Euro is not the only model sniffing this one out luckily. I havent stayed up for the Euro in a long long time. I do catch up every morning around 6AM. Might stay up for th 0Z gfs..THe 84 NAM looked to have the Vortex further NE vs. the GFS. Is that more in line with the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, I didn't sleep much between 12/20-12/26 because of the Euro. Just a reminder but lets keep things on topic everyone. Stuff like this needs to go into the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It appears the models are handling this low pressure better than the Christmas low pressure. I feel more confident in accumulating snow than I did with the Christmas storm. UKMET and NAGAPS appear to be the only models who do not have high confidence in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just a reminder but lets keep things on topic everyone. Stuff like this needs to go into the banter thread. Will the forum go in storm mode soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looking like it. Sorry, Lookout. 18z NAM catching up, let's see if the GFS keeps its weird solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Will the forum go in storm mode soon? If things continue to look promising for the next day or so, yes. Regardless, I'm going to be a little more aggressive in what is posted in the discussion thread...ie deleting off topic/bad posts. Looking like it. Sorry, Lookout. 18z NAM catching up, let's see if the GFS keeps its weird solution. No problem...I just wanted to remind everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow I get home from school and I see the Euro drops 10-12 IMBY??!! I about fell out of my chair when i saw it! Long nights ahead for sure if you live in the SE! btw thanks to all the mets and burger who did PBP on the European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That shows a pretty serious ice storm stretching from just south of AGS up to north of ILM. There's a thin area of 15MM(.59") with a wider area of 10MM(.39") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep which is a good thing, gotta wonder when they do their typical flop. Though this is different from the Christmas storm since it was a Euro vs. GFS all the way until about 3 days out. This could be one that both get right from mid range....well lets hope anyways. Someone plaese correct me if I'm wrong here. We are also not looking at a phasing situation this time. That would make me think the models would have an easier time locking onto a solution. Due to the timing needing to be near perfect for our Christmas storm bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Someone plaese correct me if I'm wrong here. We are also not looking at a phasing situation this time. That would make me think the models would have an easier time locking onto a solution. Due to the timing needing to be near perfect for our Christmas storm bomb. Yes, this is almost 100% different from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That shows a pretty serious ice storm stretching from just south of AGS up to north of ILM. There's a thin area of 15MM(.59") with a wider area of 10MM(.39") Yuck, that my friend is serious power outages. This needs to be watched extremely closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Someone plaese correct me if I'm wrong here. We are also not looking at a phasing situation this time. That would make me think the models would have an easier time locking onto a solution. Due to the timing needing to be near perfect for our Christmas storm bomb. That's right. This will be more of an overrunning event with CAD in place. The Christmas storm more more of a dynamically driven system due to phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That shows a pretty serious ice storm stretching from just south of AGS up to north of ILM. There's a thin area of 15MM(.59") with a wider area of 10MM(.39") My goodness! That brings back memories of a few years back when we had that terrible icestorm here. Without power in these parts for about 3 days. I sure hope that doesn't happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Will CAD be impacting areas all the way to the AL border ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS to 48- very similar to previous but the "kicker" trough in the NW is faster/deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 My goodness! That brings back memories of a few years back when we had that terrible icestorm here. Without power in these parts for about 3 days. I sure hope that doesn't happen! I find icestorms incredibly fascinating but I'll pass on this one, thanks. Its kinda like a tornado...would be amazing to see as long as it stays away from your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No need to stay up for Euro runs as the Euro is not the only model sniffing this one out luckily. Man I don't know how you guys do that anyway. I can't stay up till 2 in the morning anymore. If I don't get 7 hours of sleep I'm useless the next day at work. Must be a bunch of college kids around here. Yeah, I like to catch up the next morning with a cup of coffee. So yeah, talk it up and I'll catch you around 8:30!! Sorry, just read the wrist slap to stay on topic......I think the EURO will hold it's ground. Again it seems like the really good storms are locked in several days before the event. I think Feb 2004 was like that as well. Anybody know what type of system that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM snow equivalent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 My goodness! That brings back memories of a few years back when we had that terrible icestorm here. Without power in these parts for about 3 days. I sure hope that doesn't happen! SN > IP > RN > ZR imo... For those fortunate to get an epic IP event out of this, if the storm does materialize as currently modeled, enjoy it!!! While I would take SN over IP any day of the week, 3-4" of shards on the ground wreaks havoc on roads, does not melt as quickly as SN, and transforms the surface into a mini glacier after compaction. We had a storm here last winter, Jan 29th & 30th, that put down a solid 3-4" brick of IP. Went to bed that night with half-dollars flying, and awoke around daybreak with pings at the window. Worst road conditions for the days after I have seen since 03, which was when I relocated to ENC. Also stuck around for longer than most, if not all the SN's I have seen here. I am pulling for those in the deep south on this one, as I/we have had our fill here in the Coastal Plain. Sure it would be nice to cash in also, but very few times does the whole SE get nailed over the course of a couple days. Word of caution though, the hybrid scenario of something between an A-B can not be taken off the table at this point. This scenario would throw a monkey wrench in dominant p-types, as well as the area affected given waa ahead of the inland low. We are still 120hrs out and looking at NCEP's global model verification page, the guidance is still struggling even at this range. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z is looking juicy at 105 very similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The bad thing about this GFS run is it spells ice for most of GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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