Dr No Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jan 61 seems to be the closest analog that I can find to this run. Feb 78 probably a close second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If this verifies the Lions win the next 10 Super Bowls. Honolulu Blue & Silver FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jan 61 seems to be the closest analog that I can find to this run. Feb 78 probably a close second. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html HPC agrees with your second analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jan 61 seems to be the closest analog that I can find to this run. Feb 78 probably a close second. Jan 61 was the Kennedy Inauguration storm. Here is a link on the storm from CWG. http://voices.washin...r_the_case.html Not saying its going to happen. Just an interesting storm due to fact that it was expected to be a mix and stayed all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Jan 61 seems to be the closest analog that I can find to this run. Feb 78 probably a close second. Funny you mention 78 because I was trying to remember what storm in the late 70's featured a PV displaced south with energy that rotated around it that popped a Miller B that effected the mid atlantic on up the coast. Remember that storm because it was not forcasted and took the weather community by surprise. One of my all time favorites because of the fact that we were forcasted to have some flurries at most and woke up to basically a blizzard. Over a foot and half of snow fell north of Baltimore and the drifting I have yet to see rivaled to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Funny you mention 78 because I was trying to remember what storm in the late 70's featured a PV displaced south with energy that rotated around it that popped a Miller B that effected the mid atlantic on up the coast. Remember that storm because it was not forcasted and took the weather community by surprise. One of my all time favorites because of the fact that we were forcasted to have some flurries at most and woke up to basically a blizzard. Over a foot and half of snow fell north of Baltimore and the drifting I have yet to see rivaled to this day. I remember that storm because of all the motorists stranded on I-81 that we had to get by snowmobile or 4x4.. I tried to look for data but couldn't find any info for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Dr. Yes at it's finest. I have a hard time believing the PV moves over DC. The second storm looks more promising, but it's too far out to tell. this might be the best post you have had at ameicanwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I remember that storm because of all the motorists stranded on I-81 that we had to get by snowmobile or 4x4.. I tried to look for data but couldn't find any info for PA I know here in the Lancaster area it was a widespread 15-20" storm. What i remember most from that storm was the severe drifting that took place. Route 222 south out of the city was closed for two days until PENNDOT got bigger plows with blowers on to open up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I remember that storm because of all the motorists stranded on I-81 that we had to get by snowmobile or 4x4.. I tried to look for data but couldn't find any info for PA The 1978 blizzard is the first big snowstorm in my memories. I was 8 and living N/W of Baltimore at the time. I will always remember how I felt when I walked out of my apartment on that day. It is the storm responsible for my insane obsession with Noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Another thing about the 78 storm was the fact that schools in Baltimore County, MD were out for a whole week. Of course we made that up at the end of the school year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm with MadCheese. This year the Euro has been digging systems too far south or the dc area would have had 3 major snowstorms this year already. It would take perfect phasing for the euro to be right. I'm not discounting the chances of a storm but think the euro is wrong in how far south it digs the 500 energy and therefore how far south it forms and bombs out the low. However, I am getting increasingly optimistic that we'll see something around the middle of the month. 60% of the D+11 analogs now show dates of storms that produced 1 inch or more within the 5 day window of the centered mean (jan 14). That's an usually high percentage. The limo average is about 21 percent of the years produce a one inch snowfall between Jan 12-jan 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm with MadCheese. This year the Euro has been digging systems too far south or the dc area would have had 3 major snowstorms this year already. It would take perfect phasing for the euro to be right. I'm not discounting the chances of a storm but think the euro is wrong in how far south it digs the 500 energy and therefore how far south it forms and bombs out the low. However, I am getting increasingly optimistic that we'll see something around the middle of the month. 60% of the D+11 analogs now show dates of storms that produced 1 inch or more within the 5 day window of the centered mean (jan 14). That's an usually high percentage. The limo average is about 21 percent of the years produce a one inch snowfall between Jan 12-jan 16. Thanks Wes. This first system is so convoluted and that alone makes it a long shot in my mind. And how nice would that next storm be with a potential brutal arctic outbreak behind it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Thanks Wes. This first system is so convoluted and that alone makes it a long shot in my mind. And how nice would that next storm be with a potential brutal arctic outbreak behind it.. My thinking also, plus the euro seems to like jazzing up systems along the coast this year. The analogs only showed one 4 inch or more storms in the dc area. Not sure what happened further north. Still the nao is getting to be in a good place and the model is showing a 50 50 low developing with the convoluted clipper so the pattern does look interesting. I'm not yet willing to jump on the euro second storm either but think it has a better chance than the 1st for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro has not been very consistent this winter. Hate to say it, but sometimes you need to ride the GFS and the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm with MadCheese. This year the Euro has been digging systems too far south or the dc area would have had 3 major snowstorms this year already. It would take perfect phasing for the euro to be right. I'm not discounting the chances of a storm but think the euro is wrong in how far south it digs the 500 energy and therefore how far south it forms and bombs out the low. However, I am getting increasingly optimistic that we'll see something around the middle of the month. 60% of the D+11 analogs now show dates of storms that produced 1 inch or more within the 5 day window of the centered mean (jan 14). That's an usually high percentage. The limo average is about 21 percent of the years produce a one inch snowfall between Jan 12-jan 16. Christmas storm was not too far south compared to the Euro's forecast track wrt the southern s/w. An argument could be made for the northern energy, although it ended up working in the SE/Lower MA's favor initially and not the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Christmas storm was not too far south compared to the Euro's forecast track wrt the southern s/w. An argument could be made for the northern energy, although it ended up working in the SE/Lower MA's favor initially and not the MA. People slamming the Euro seem to forget that there was a major storm like the Euro depicted, just not in their back yard. I only got a little over an inch from it but places along the east coast got slammed. Try telling the people of NYC and NJ that the Euro was out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 My thinking also, plus the euro seems to like jazzing up systems along the coast this year. The analogs only showed one 4 inch or more storms in the dc area. Not sure what happened further north. Still the nao is getting to be in a good place and the model is showing a 50 50 low developing with the convoluted clipper so the pattern does look interesting. I'm not yet willing to jump on the euro second storm either but think it has a better chance than the 1st for down here. You do realize parts of NJ got over two feet from the " jazzed" up system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Christmas storm was not too far south compared to the Euro's forecast track wrt the southern s/w. An argument could be made for the northern energy, although it ended up working in the SE/Lower MA's favor initially and not the MA. To me it developed and strengthened the low too far south especially early in the game. It initally had the 500 low digging southward into Ky and closing off, I think it closed off later and farther east than that. the dec 19th event and I think at least one other one also had lows that were way too wrapped up and too far south. The way it gets the low so far south looks a little funny as it has to have perfect phasing to pull it so far south. I gues I'm saying I don't think the euro solution is likely and note that none of the gfs ensemble solutions seem to like it nor does the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 You do realize parts of NJ got over two feet from the " jazzed" up system? Yes I do, I'm not saying there won't be a storm but Dec 19th certainly was too jazzed up and so was a JB storm even earlier in the winter. I'm not arguing that farther north might get a big storm but not down here and that I think the euro is probably too far south with its 500h low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 People slamming the Euro seem to forget that there was a major storm like the Euro depicted, just not in their back yard. I only got a little over an inch from it but places along the east coast got slammed. Try telling the people of NYC and NJ that the Euro was out to lunch. No ones slamming the euro but it is one for three in its forecasts of big storms along the east coast. No models have been very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 why dont the models come up with realistic solutions/?? Are the features ij the upper levels that unusual that were gettimg too extreme solutions/?? The euro is , again, advertising an unlikely solution. Heck, If the laymen looks at these outcomes, what is he supposed to come to conclusion of, a hell breaker?? Didn't they upgrade the ec this past year?? Wonder if that is what is causinmg these unusual solutions?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Yes I do, I'm not saying there won't be a storm but Dec 19th certainly was too jazzed up and so was a JB storm even earlier in the winter. I'm not arguing that farther north might get a big storm but not down here and that I think the euro is probably too far south with its 500h low. The 12z GFS just popped a low off the VA coast. To far east to hit anyone but a move toward the Euro IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 No ones slamming the euro but it is one for three in its forecasts of big storms along the east coast. No models have been very good. I strongly agree. The Euro, like any other model, has struggled mightily at times in this La Niña. Having said that, I've been placing much greater weight on the ensembles than the operational runs from 72 hours and out. Hence, the idea of a coastal storm's development, possibly with at least light to moderate snows along the coastal plain, particularly from PHL north and eastward, albeit not the extreme event depicted on the 0z Euro, is not at all unreasonable. I'd like to see the GFS move in that direction and, if some of the ensemble guidance is representative, it might do so. Getting the polar vortex as far south as the 0z Euro depicted is extreme. It's probably something one might expect later in the pattern that has been depicted for near mid-January rather than during the development of such a pattern. But we'll see. Hopefully, I'll be wrong and more significant snows will impact the entire Mid-Atlantic-southern New England regions. Edit: Just as I was typing this reply, Feb reported that the GFS showed the development of an offshore coastal storm. That's a nice step. In the current run, that storm impacts parts of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 12z GFS just popped a low off the VA coast. To far east to hit anyone but a move toward the Euro IMO. It buries SNE... like super buries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro has not been very consistent this winter. Hate to say it, but sometimes you need to ride the GFS and the ensembles. There's always the JMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 People slamming the Euro seem to forget that there was a major storm like the Euro depicted, just not in their back yard. I only got a little over an inch from it but places along the east coast got slammed. Try telling the people of NYC and NJ that the Euro was out to lunch. All of the models showed massively different solutions for the week leading up to the event. The Euro was poor in it's handling of the storm up until 2 days before. It is wise to objectively look at it now and simply go on a wait and see basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It buries SNE... like super buries Goes ape shyat on that s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm with MadCheese. This year the Euro has been digging systems too far south or the dc area would have had 3 major snowstorms this year already. It would take perfect phasing for the euro to be right. I'm not discounting the chances of a storm but think the euro is wrong in how far south it digs the 500 energy and therefore how far south it forms and bombs out the low. However, I am getting increasingly optimistic that we'll see something around the middle of the month. 60% of the D+11 analogs now show dates of storms that produced 1 inch or more within the 5 day window of the centered mean (jan 14). That's an usually high percentage. The limo average is about 21 percent of the years produce a one inch snowfall between Jan 12-jan 16. I would agree Wes, plus those rapid Carolina coastal waters cyclogenetic stall off the south mddle atlantic coast solutions have not verified (yet). This winter it doesn't appear as if there is any model that has been heads and tails over the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It buries SNE... like super buries Yes. It was only out to 108 when i posted that but a step toward the Euro IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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