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Novtorcher Disco Thread


Prismshine Productions
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10 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Quite consistent pattern w/ very strong El Nino.  The biggest temp anomalies are usually in the Upper MS Vly/Nrn Plains and that's is what this shows well here.  All on track.

That what the MSM and others do not get.  Sure, this type is El Nino is not common, but 1) just b/c something is not common or rare does not mean it is abnormal, 2) very strong El Nino in itself occurs naturally. and 3) the sensible wx that results from it in regions across the globe are completely what is to be expected given other El Ninos like this. This a major problem these days w/ how things are communicated.  Everything is pushed as NOT usual or typical simply b/c it has societal and environment impact.  As if there should never be any or not times it is worse than others?

Has the ATLC HU season been severely suppressed? Yes,  Pacific HU season very active?  Yes.  STJ showing dominance? Yes.  Big rains srn Cali and Desert SW?  Yes.  Miller A tendencies E Coast?  Yes.  I see narrative pushed that due to warming, the wx is becoming more "unforecastable" or "uncertain."  Noting could be further from the truth!

And this notion that El Nino gets "worse" w/ warming.  So why in the last 30 years, base conditions have become more La Nina?  See attachment.  I was thinking it may be AMO connected, but it was more El Nino base 1950-1969 when we were still in the favorable AMO phase for big ATLC HUs, and since 1995 that same AMO phase for ATLC HUs has existed, yet more base La Nina, so any direct correlations do not work here.
 

states.jpeg

Thanks for keeping it real.  Lots of bad and erroneous info being pushed…sensationalism at its worst. 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thanks for keeping it real.  Lots of bad and erroneous info being pushed…sensationalism at its worst. 

For sure. The YouTube pirates are at it in full force. Funny how they'll slide in late in a video how a vortex split could mean absolutely nothing to us... after sensationally leading with it as fact :rolleyes:

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

lol mid month is an inferno. Polar  split going to bring warmest CONUS Novie ever? Thank you Super Nino snd CC. We grow. 

Keep those lakes nice and toasty. Hopefully the stored heat in Lake Ontario gets unleashed on the Tug Hill starting in December. Warm lakes can lead to some epic conditions on the hill. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

They often radiate fake there in the sand . It is awesome. Just me , BOS and MSP

A little bit sometimes…not like MVY does.

Is this your first cold season with the Davis attached to the deck? Maybe you need it back in the field. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little bit sometimes…not like MVY does.

Is this your first cold season with the Davis attached to the deck? Maybe you need it back in the field. 

No it’s been there for 3 years now. I used to have it below the deck but on the brick walkway .. literally 12 feet away . I mean there hasn’t been even any fake rooftop or car frost any mornings . Everything is growing , so it’s just a microclimate doing micro climate things. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They often radiate fake there in the sand . It is awesome. Just me , BOS and MSP

Seems like your tracking pretty close to BDR in lows. They still haven't gone below 34. 36 for the low there last night 

 

month_10__year_2026__station_BDR__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100 (10).png

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

lol mid month is an inferno. Polar  split going to bring warmest CONUS Novie ever? Thank you Super Nino snd CC. We grow. 

Blooms into December? I have all kinds of stuff still flowering here including a bunch of hydrangeas. 

 

Screenshot_20261101_075230_Gallery.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no issue . It’s a windy hilltop in the woods that doesn’t radiate . Case closed 

Well you’re surrounded by large oaks and near a deck. So there are some sources for IR to reradiate back. But yeah, you’re not a rad location regardless. Maybe instead of 36° you’d be 34° or something. 

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well you’re surrounded by large oaks and near a deck. So there are some sources for IR to reradiate back. But yeah, you’re not a rad location regardless. Maybe instead of 36° you’d be 34° or something. 

ORH getting to 29F is interesting if he stayed 36F.

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15 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

weeklies don't look blocky at all.  violent pacific jet for weeks and weeks

The ski resorts wont be able to open until Mid December, and on a base of artificial snow :(

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