Major Hurricane Isaias

[vortex95]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I’m glad the expected last minute weakening verified well saving from a MH landfall, but realize getting cat 1-2 H effects is of course still a big impactful event (I know first hand).
 

 Interestingly per Dr. Knabb, that same strong shear that caused the dramatic weakening just before landfall actually caused the worst of the thunderstorms/wind gusts (solid cat 2 gusts) to be in your area in the NW eyewall (where Stephanie Abrams great coverage was). It’s almost as if the NW eyewall weakening lagged behind. She said she had never seen so much lightning in an eyewall, which typically has limited lightning due to the upper atmosphere being too warm for as much ice in the clouds vs typically much more lightning in outer bands as Dr. Knabb explained.

 I thought TWC coverage was excellent between her, Cantore showing storm surge and sudden shift to warming S winds off Gulf in E eyewall, and Dr. Knabb.

Regarding the LTG frequency,  Isaias was rapidly going PT/ET, and strong baroclinic influences were present before landfall.  Dry air intrusion and wind shear are going to lead to stronger updrafts b/c more CAPE present.  Asymmetries in the circulation are going to result in frontal-type convergence zones, further promoting stronger updrafts

Also, chasers reported it was a "cold" hurricane. Temps along the FL coast were largely below 70 prior to landfall.  That's not your typical tropical environment.

LTG can be frequent in eyewall in an intense HU in the deep tropics.  Recons have reported this many times in strong Cat 4s and Cat 5s.  What happens is that when a TC gets this intense, updrafts in the eyewall, which normally max out just below typical tstm updraft strength, cross the threshold to make it favorable for LTG. 

 

[vortex95]

This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is a characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC.  Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center.  It was quite elongated.  So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall.  That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status.  That suggested a distinct cool/dry air penetration into the core (front).  Once that happens, a system is PT/ET.

Note: SAR shows sustained winds max 110 kt.  The SAR tends to have high bias.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php?year=2026&storm=AL092026_ISAIAS

I have always said when a system is transitioning like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status.  Why not?   If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolutely no reason to think it can not work the other way.  This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall.  A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr.  It is *process* that takes time.

And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue.  ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical.  In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assigning operationally ST status as systems transitioned from TC.
 

[vortex95]

One historical item concerning sting jets.  It likely that HU Edna in Sep 1954 when crossing Cape Cod in a very strong PT/ET transition (110 mph at landfall) had a sting jet.  Why?  BOS gusted to 101 mph out of the NW -- its highest gust on record!  10 days before HU Carol (115 mph at landfall) produced a gust to 100 mph at BOS out of the SE as the storm passed to the W, which is what you would expect for very high winds.

When HUs get to New England, the PT/ET transition is almost always ongoing and the typical cooler/more stable air NW of the center along w/ rapid forward motion that will reduce winds W of the track.  I always wondered how such a wind gust occurred in BOS from Edna from that direction.  Once the concept of the sting jet became front and center about 20 years ago, that explained it!

In the larger TC picture, Isaias in some ways is a watershed event.  From strictly a conventional satellite perspective (EIR and Dvorak), that much deep convection not all sheared N and NE of the center near/at landfall, that says it was still more tropical than not, and can be called a HU at landfall.  However, the SAR imagery tells a much different story!  It's overall elongated wind structure, a string jet present, and the lack of a coherent inner core says it was more PT/ET.

Other factors stating it was more PT/ET?  That abrupt rise in center pressure in a short time before landfall (something obviously happened at the core here) and the rather cool surface conditions directly ahead of the storm.  This shows it was not just a race for cooler/drier air trying to wrap in from the W and NW.  This less than favorable TC atmosphere was N and NE as well, and got ingested into the core before landfall.

This is an excellent example how new technology reveals things we could never quite detect, or detected/quantify at all prior.  SAR gives a very detailed wind profile of a TC when it is over water.  And as we know, the wind structure is paramount as to if it is a TC or not (tight or spread out?, symmetrical or asymmetrical?)  And it also makes us rethink what we thought we knew well, and adjust accordingly.  This is good b/c the science is always evolving. 

Imagine when SAR-type imagery is available on geostationary satellites?  That will revolutionize analysis and modelling for the current data sparse oceans.

[vortex95]

I was looking back at SAR imagery for Isaias.  Look at the difference in structure only 12 hr apart!
  

[GaWx]

Meanwhile, the remnants of Isaias are directly responsible for tornadoes today in NC, including a damaging one in Fayetteville and several others in the Triangle region! This is serious stuff and is the 2nd day in a row of this.

[WxWatcher007]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Meanwhile, the remnants of Isaias are directly responsible for tornadoes today in NC, including a damaging one in Fayetteville and several others in the Triangle region! This is serious stuff and is the 2nd day in a row of this.

Yeah so much for the severe risk busting.

[NorthHillsWx]

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah so much for the severe risk busting.

Was a frisky day here. We excel at slight risk days and then do nothing on moderate or high risk days. Most warned storms produced I think there were at least 9 separate tornadoes in the state today 

[vortex95]

On 10/11/2026 at 2:34 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah so much for the severe risk busting.

The 2020 Isaias produced the most tors from a TC that tracked along the E Coast and stayed E of the Appalachians -- 39.  And DE has its longest-tracked tor on record at 36 mi.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/200803_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/200804_rpts.html
 

[GaWx]

Surveys done for 4 GA/SC Saturday 10/10/26 tornadoes produced by a super-cell thunderstorm: 3 EF-1 and 1 EF-0

-Fortunately no deaths or injuries
-2 of 4 caused structural and/or automobile damage
-All 4 caused notable tree damage

https://www.weather.gov/chs/Tornadoes-October2026

[GaWx]

EF2 from feederband, which was just ahead of a cold front, from remnants of Isaias in Duplin County, NC yesterday (10/11/26)!

 

[NorthHillsWx]

19 confirmed tornadoes so far. 2 EF2s 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

19 confirmed tornadoes so far. 2 EF2s 

Where was the second one? How strong was the one that hit Fayetteville?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

One historical item concerning sting jets.  It likely that HU Edna in Sep 1954 when crossing Cape Cod in a very strong PT/ET transition (110 mph at landfall) had a sting jet.  Why?  BOS gusted to 101 mph out of the NW -- its highest gust on record!  10 days before HU Carol (115 mph at landfall) produced a gust to 100 mph at BOS out of the SE as the storm passed to the W, which is what you would expect for very high winds.

When HUs get to New England, the PT/ET transition is almost always ongoing and the typical cooler/more stable air NW of the center along w/ rapid forward motion that will reduce winds W of the track.  I always wondered how such a wind gust occurred in BOS from Edna from that direction.  Once the concept of the sting jet became front and center about 20 years ago, that explained it!

In the larger TC picture, Isaias in some ways is a watershed event.  From strictly a conventional satellite perspective (EIR and Dvorak), that much deep convection not all sheared N and NE of the center near/at landfall, that says it was still more tropical than not, and can be called a HU at landfall.  However, the SAR imagery tells a much different story!  It's overall elongated wind structure, a string jet present, and the lack of a coherent inner core says it was more PT/ET.

Other factors stating it was more PT/ET?  That abrupt rise in center pressure in a short time before landfall (something obviously happened at the core here) and the rather cool surface conditions directly ahead of the storm.  This shows it was not just a race for cooler/drier air trying to wrap in from the W and NW.  This less than favorable TC atmosphere was N and NE as well, and got ingested into the core before landfall.
This is an excellent example how new technology reveals things we could never quite detect, or detected/quantify at all prior.  SAR gives a very detailed wind profile of a TC when it is over water.  And as we know, the wind structure is paramount as to if it is a TC or not (tight or spread out?, symmetrical or asymmetrical?)  And it also makes us rethink what we thought we knew well, and adjust accordingly.  This is good b/c the science is always evolving. 

Imagine when SAR-type imagery is available on geostationary satellites?  That will revolutionize analysis and modelling for the current data sparse oceans.

Gloria 85, had a sting jet as well. The strongest winds west of the center came under sunny skys after the center had passed.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Where was the second one? How strong was the one that hit Fayetteville?

Duplin County NC and Newberry County SC. Fayetteville was assigned preliminary rating of EF1. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes in NC from Sunday making it the second most ever in the state from a tropical system. The first place storm? Isaias in 2020….

[CoastalWx]

On 10/10/2026 at 10:32 PM, vortex95 said:

This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is a characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC.  Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center.  It was quite elongated.  So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall.  That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status.  That suggested a distinct cool/dry air penetration into the core (front).  Once that happens, a system is PT/ET.

Note: SAR shows sustained winds max 110 kt.  The SAR tends to have high bias.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php?year=2026&storm=AL092026_ISAIAS

I have always said when a system is transitioning like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status.  Why not?   If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolutely no reason to think it can not work the other way.  This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall.  A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr.  It is *process* that takes time.

And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue.  ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical.  In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assigning operationally ST status as systems transitioned from TC.
 

I noted those stronger winds in my posts as it was making landfall. You could see it on radar velocity very easily. But this all makes sense now. Pretty cool stuff.

[jconsor]

The tornado outbreak across the Carolinas was unusual not just for a TC-associated outbreak, but for the time of year:

https://x.com/GMengel/status/2109798674465198505

[jconsor]

One of the SC tornadoes (Barnwell) has been upgraded to an EF-2:

https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/2109995279244026310

[Floydbuster]

Well that was yet another strike for the Panhandle/Big Bend/West Coast of Florida. I feel like the last decade has been really intense for that area.

Hermine 2016
Irma 2017
Michael 2018
Sally 2020
Ian 2022
Idalia 2023
Debby 2024
Helene 2024
Milton 2024
Isaias 2026

Ten hurricanes in ten years all on from Pensacola down to Naples. 
 

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Well that was yet another strike for the Panhandle/Big Bend/West Coast of Florida. I feel like the last decade has been really intense for that area.

Hermine 2016
Irma 2017
Michael 2018
Sally 2020
Ian 2022
Idalia 2023
Debby 2024
Helene 2024
Milton 2024
Isaias 2026

Ten hurricanes in ten years all on from Pensacola down to Naples. 
 

Counting only hurricanes making landfall at hurricane strength between the western panhandle and tampa:

17-26 5

07-16 1

97-06 2

87-96 2

77-86 1

67-76 3

[PhiEaglesfan712]

56 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Well that was yet another strike for the Panhandle/Big Bend/West Coast of Florida. I feel like the last decade has been really intense for that area.

Hermine 2016
Irma 2017
Michael 2018
Sally 2020
Ian 2022
Idalia 2023
Debby 2024
Helene 2024
Milton 2024
Isaias 2026

Ten hurricanes in ten years all on from Pensacola down to Naples. 
 

Chalk it up to the law of averages. The previous decade (2006-2015) had none in that area.

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Counting only hurricanes making landfall at hurricane strength between the western panhandle and tampa:

17-26 5

07-16 1

97-06 2

87-96 2

77-86 1

67-76 3

 

Thanks for the stats.

Yeah, the last decade or so has really changed my views when it comes to Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. Several of my own personal tropes have been thrown to the wayside.

1. A high end Cat 4 hurricane can only strike Florida, and likely most places anywhere in the United States before late September. You wont see high end Category 4 storms striking areas of the Bahamas or around the east coast of Florida after late September. Joaquin 2015, Matthew 2016, and Michael 2018 threw that away.

2. All major hurricanes tend to weaken at landfall on the north Gulf Coast. Michael 2018, Laura 2020, Ida 2021 and Helene 2024 threw that one away.

3. A Category 5 landfall on the North Gulf Coast is highly unlikely, and Camille 1969 was likely overestimated in strength. See: Hurricane Michael 919 mb. 

4. A strengthening Category 5 hurricane into landfall on the North Gulf Coast in MID-OCTOBER is not possible. Again, see: Michael 2018.

5. September 10th is the peak of the season. Honestly, it should be October 1st at this point.

6.  The Big Bend rarely gets hurricanes. B.S. I have seen more maps of the Big Bend the last ten years than I can count.

[HNYB]

Eglin AFB here. Thanks for the coverage. I've learned a lot here over the years. Among the most useful info is flight level winds vs surface winds and the science of surface wind reduction.

We left Friday morning, returned Monday morning. 

My flower bed before the hurricane, which I expected to be shredded:

And after:

I also left a small plastic water bowl on the back patio. It had only moved a few inches.

Weather is weird.

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Chalk it up to the law of averages. The previous decade (2006-2015) had none in that area.

Yes, also recency bias - the cognitive shortcut that what has happening now or very recently has more significance/importance than what was prior.

When you look at wx history and all regions of the world, you can find numerous focused regional wild periods for wx.  Just for U.S. HUs?

New England had 5 hurricane landfalls 1938-1960, and since 1991, none.  People back then in the region would be like, "what the heck is going on?" and people now in the same region would be like "what's a hurricane?"

FL is nothing new to wild periods:
Hit by 5 category 4 hurricanes 1945-1950, 12 hurricanes 1941-50 w/ 6 major, and a record 13 landfalling hurricanes 1871-80.

Or more general:
From 1926-1969, 14 category 4/5 hurricanes had U.S. landfalls.  For the period 1970-2016, only 4 category 4/5 hurricanes had U.S. landfalls.

The 14 yr period 2006-19 had 3 CONUS major hurricane landfalls.  This is the least for such a period since 1900.  The most is 13 from 1915-28.

In June 1886, 3 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S.  No other June has had more than 1.  The last June CONUS hurricane landfall was in 1986.  This is the longest stretch w/o a June CONUS landfall on record.
 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Thanks for the stats.

Yeah, the last decade or so has really changed my views when it comes to Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. Several of my own personal tropes have been thrown to the wayside.

1. A high end Cat 4 hurricane can only strike Florida, and likely most places anywhere in the United States before late September. You wont see high end Category 4 storms striking areas of the Bahamas or around the east coast of Florida after late September. Joaquin 2015, Matthew 2016, and Michael 2018 threw that away.

2. All major hurricanes tend to weaken at landfall on the north Gulf Coast. Michael 2018, Laura 2020, Ida 2021 and Helene 2024 threw that one away.

3. A Category 5 landfall on the North Gulf Coast is highly unlikely, and Camille 1969 was likely overestimated in strength. See: Hurricane Michael 919 mb. 

4. A strengthening Category 5 hurricane into landfall on the North Gulf Coast in MID-OCTOBER is not possible. Again, see: Michael 2018.

5. September 10th is the peak of the season. Honestly, it should be October 1st at this point.

6.  The Big Bend rarely gets hurricanes. B.S. I have seen more maps of the Big Bend the last ten years than I can count.

Quite frankly, those things should have been thrown by the wayside after 2005. That decade from 1995-2005, especially the last 3 years (03-05), is a hyperactive stretch that we are unlikely to see again.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Quite frankly, those things should have been thrown by the wayside after 2005. That decade from 1995-2005, especially the last 3 years (03-05), is a hyperactive stretch that we are unlikely to see again.

Next year likely Nina, building OHC with this years lack of activity. Unless the Sahel is entering a new period of enhanced desertification (possible and would explain amount of dust the last few seasons) I fully expect the next two seasons to be hyperactive.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

There have now been 12 tornadoes confirmed in NC, 3 of which were EF2. This now ties Isaias with Isaias in 2020 as the largest outbreak from a tropical system in the states history. 

[NavarreDon]

Prelim write up by MOB.

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/2110188812181860806?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


.

[eyewall]

I got a shot of the funnel which was rainwrapped on this storm. It was on the ground at one point as seen here in the NWS damage survey. I had to dehaze in lightroom to really bring it out. I was just west of where the touchdown occurred 

[NorthHillsWx]

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There have now been 12 tornadoes confirmed in NC, 3 of which were EF2. This now ties Isaias with Isaias in 2020 as the largest outbreak from a tropical system in the states history. 

Isaias (2026) now stands alone in NC history as the largest tornado outbreak in the states history with 13 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday! The early calls for this being a prolific tornado producer were validated