October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[dailylurker]

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks. 

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

[Benjamn3]

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

I remember doing a similar thing here in VA. I was cutting shooting lanes before deer season in mid September 2009 a little late for that but I was 20 and stupid lol. I was fussing about the lack of cold and snow, during fall and winter. Though I was also glad because I had just enlisted in The Marines, and it gave me some more time to train before I got to Paris Island in March…and we all know how 09-10 went. Haha 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

I was up there in January, 2025 when It was -5 with about 10" on the ground. It was awesome. 

[WxUSAF]

Definite first freeze potential D10-11 on several runs today for NW burbs and IAD

[soadforecasterx]

This looks like the type of scenario I can see playing out this winter.  A Close race between a cold shot and a big storm.

[frd]

 https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2108603993190478158

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week. 

Which is it's experimental forecast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Which is it's experimental forecast

They verify more often than they do not

[SnowenOutThere]

People are sleeping on what could be the first snowfall event of the season for parts of our subforum next weekend! Both the CMC, GFS, GFS AI, and GFS/CMC model ens are on board for accumulating snow for the ridges in WV, though the Euro hasn't bought on yet. The setup makes sense, a strong early season trough will spur upslope snow showers after the front passage with some aid from the Great Lakes. 

Currently, this is forecasted to take place during the night too which helps with thermals, though the GFS has them bottom out in the mid 20s so there's some room for front timing. Of course, this is still far out in the future and a weaker frontal passage, more progressive trough, or any number of factors could ruin the setup, but it's worth paying attention to for an early snow chase to see both fall foliage in the valleys and snow at the peaks. 

[midatlanticweather]

Euro says.. "no"

[midatlanticweather]

26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Euro says.. "no"

At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler.. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

At least 6z kind of said.. kind of.. maybe cooler.. 

You're seeing a fight between the trough being modeled progressively (Euro) and being held back (GFS). Here's Friday at 2pm on the GFS

That trough then drops south and nearly induces a coastal low to form as it tilts negatively. The Euro is on a different planet, as it doesn't ever have that energy detach fully from the more northward low.

The Euro AI is sort of in-between, with the low detaching and swinging south but not as intense

Still have a long ways to go but we should hopefully see consensus emerge mid-week. If the Euro AI to GFS envelope is right then it'll be time to look at the close range models to see topographic effects and possible places that'll snow. 

[SnowenOutThere]

First mention of winter wx in the morning AFD!

Behind the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the
central CONUS beginning on Friday before shifting eastward. A tight
pressure gradient between the surface high and the departing low
pressure system leads to breezy conditions across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots,
with higher elevations gusting up to 40 knots. Wind headlines may be
needed across the higher elevations but we will continue to monitor.
It`s also worth mentioning that with gusty northwest winds, upslope
snow showers are possible along the Alleghenies on Saturday with
high temperatures staying in the 30s across the ridges. Little to no
accumulation is expected although the first flakes of the season are
possible.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

First mention of winter wx in the morning AFD!

Behind the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the
central CONUS beginning on Friday before shifting eastward. A tight
pressure gradient between the surface high and the departing low
pressure system leads to breezy conditions across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots,
with higher elevations gusting up to 40 knots. Wind headlines may be
needed across the higher elevations but we will continue to monitor.
It`s also worth mentioning that with gusty northwest winds, upslope
snow showers are possible along the Alleghenies on Saturday with
high temperatures staying in the 30s across the ridges. Little to no
accumulation is expected although the first flakes of the season are
possible.

I'm watching the Tug Hill region for a possible significant lake snow event. The lake is boiling hot and full of energy. It looks like highs here in the low 50's with strong winds next weekend. 

[WxUSAF]

First freeze potential for IAD on Sunday morning and first frost for many 'burbs.  

[high risk]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

First mention of winter wx in the morning AFD!

Behind the frontal system, surface high pressure builds over the
central CONUS beginning on Friday before shifting eastward. A tight
pressure gradient between the surface high and the departing low
pressure system leads to breezy conditions across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday. Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots,
with higher elevations gusting up to 40 knots. Wind headlines may be
needed across the higher elevations but we will continue to monitor.
It`s also worth mentioning that with gusty northwest winds, upslope
snow showers are possible along the Alleghenies on Saturday with
high temperatures staying in the 30s across the ridges. Little to no
accumulation is expected although the first flakes of the season are
possible.

            LWX mentions the possibility of wind headlines over the higher elevations, but recent guidance suggests that wind advisories will be needed for most of the area Friday afternoon and Friday night.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'm watching the Tug Hill region for a possible significant lake snow event. The lake is boiling hot and full of energy. It looks like highs here in the low 50's with strong winds next weekend. 

Might be a little early for big LES, but first flakes seem increasingly likely up here this weekend.

[SnowenOutThere]

On 10/10/2026 at 8:09 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

People are sleeping on what could be the first snowfall event of the season for parts of our subforum next weekend! Both the CMC, GFS, GFS AI, and GFS/CMC model ens are on board for accumulating snow for the ridges in WV, though the Euro hasn't bought on yet. The setup makes sense, a strong early season trough will spur upslope snow showers after the front passage with some aid from the Great Lakes. 

Currently, this is forecasted to take place during the night too which helps with thermals, though the GFS has them bottom out in the mid 20s so there's some room for front timing. Of course, this is still far out in the future and a weaker frontal passage, more progressive trough, or any number of factors could ruin the setup, but it's worth paying attention to for an early snow chase to see both fall foliage in the valleys and snow at the peaks. 

Alright, enough time has passed to throw this solution out the window. So what's figure out what went wrong as an exercise for this winter.

So, our setup relied on a branch of the NS detaching and creating an unusually deep trough over the east coast in order to bring both cold air and the correct wind flow (NNW) to catch moisture from the lakes. Now, what initially would cause this NS trough? Turns out it was an interaction with a SW wave helping to pull it down (GFS run from when it was snowy)

Compare that to it's current run.

Though we still have our two main players it's interesting how different the circumstance is. Firstly, the interaction is occurring further east, which obviously hurts us. However, what is most interesting is that blob of vorticity over central Mexico as its a Hurricane ejecting it's energy eastward and thus pulling the pattern to be progressive. On the old runs the GFS brought it out to sea instead. 

Look at the knock on effects it has! On the old run you have a near textbook PNA ridge 

Now, you can see how there is more energy getting held underneath the ridge (the Hurricane's remains are now in there) which causes a flatter, and thus less blocky, ridge.

Some other things you can notice is the previously detached low upstream of our trough has now morphed with it, which reduces the blocking pattern, and that the Artic in general is less amplified than before. All in all, pretty much everything went the wrong way for the mountains to pick up a significant snowstorm. 

Now, the reason I did this is 1. I'm bored and just took a climatology exam 2. To warmup for winter 3. To see how the models did. As mentioned in my first post nearly all models but the operational Euro had a pattern conducive to accumulating snow, and the reason the Euro didn't is because even back over the weekend it was correctly modeling the tropical impact over Mexico. This should be a lesson against trusting the AI models, as even they were wrong. Furthermore, the hurricane change was within 5 days from this weekend, and it was a dramatic miss, which should call into question any forecast beyond day 4 for synoptics (assuming our current funding for NOAA's soundings and data collection stays the same). Frankly, I wonder if our bad miss on the ice/snow line for last January's storm would've happened if we weren't cutting their data intake as it was a huge miss by our modeling for the storm track and impacts even at day 3. The bottom line of this post is we need to be extremely cautious in trusting the models come this winter. They simply are not preforming as well as in years past when it comes to what matters for us. I personally would not even trust the general synoptic pattern outside of day 3.  

Mets, or anyone else, please let me know how I did or if my reasoning was solid! 

[frd]

After the cool down later this week warmth returns over a rather large area of North America.