October 2026 general discussion

[kdxken]

 

[Ginx snewx]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Way too cold here 

Enjoy 

[dendrite]

MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.  

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.  

If you can’t compare to what really happens ..then what good are they?  That’s comical. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions. 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.

So what you’re saying is this years is very easy, and maybe they get the easy one correct? But last year was more difficult, and they flunked it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

hm   If we decouple there's going to be brick off the edge falls tho

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions. 

I was 30 last week with a higher thickness setting going in tho.   I dunno.. we're in  the time of year where the land battery doesn't get charged during the day.  yeah, the sun feels warm and given the right conditions, we can go above average... by quite a bit even. but even on those types of afternoons, the sun kisses the tree tops in the w and it's 10 off the high really fast.  I noticed that just the other day when we were 75 for high and it was 64 on dusk. 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So what you’re saying is this years is very easy, and maybe they get the easy one correct? But last year was more difficult, and they flunked it. 

You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis 

[Cyclone-68]

52 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Last chance for thunderstorm season to disappoint me 

[jlauderdal]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Last chance for thunderstorm season to disappoint me 

Im looking forward to thundersnow season.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Enjoy 

Will enjoy veggies in garden well into Nov 

[klw]

Daily Mail joins the hype train for next week!

https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-16212841/hybrid-cyclone-east-coast-weather.html

Quote

Millions could face powerful hybrid cyclone off East Coast in just days, forecast models suggest

 

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, klw said:

Daily Mail joins the hype train for next week!

https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-16212841/hybrid-cyclone-east-coast-weather.html

 

Yup…all clickbait BS. 

[WinterWolf]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will enjoy veggies in garden well into Nov 

You could frost/freeze Sunday morning bro…just saying. Wouldn’t that be a hoot. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You could frost/freeze Sunday morning bro…just saying. Wouldn’t that be a hoot. 

Very unlikely here . Need strong CAA at night this time of year 

[WinterWolf]

It’ll be close I think for you. 

[kdxken]

I'll take it. 

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS starting to figure out that there will be a storm off the Carolinas 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'll take it. 

Whatever forms off the east coast next week…better not drift closer to coast, for the sake of that forecast. 

[Supernovice]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Whatever forms off the east coast next week…better not drift closer to coast, for the sake of that forecast. 

From what I have gathered from reading here, if a storm doesn’t exist at the time the long range precipitation forecast was issued, you just back out that precip amount and so on and so forth until you get back to the original forecasted amount. Thereby justifying any emotional attachment you had to said forecast. 

[WinterWolf]

Huh?