October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Damage In Tolland]

Here it comes . Keep ramping her up . Can see that dead zone in E Ma up into S NH in lowland downslope 

[vortex95]

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought. @weatherwiz, has the below crossed you mind?  @ineedsnow will be like "BRING IT ON!" as to subtropical development.  @CoastalWxwill just be "MEH" b/c it makes zero difference in Weymouth! 

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at times for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I know of no cases where an ET low warm secluded and became a ST storm near the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Yes, the Perfect Storm in 1991 did this, and so did the Oct 2021 biggie (Wanda later), but those TCs formed way E out to sea after the local ET storm impacts had gone.  Not the same when you have ongoing ET low impacts on land, and then the low transitions to a ST storm and gets a name!

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on their 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance of ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it's not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic systems in the subtropical EPAC that have no chance of development and give it 0/0, and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

[vortex95]

On 9/22/2026 at 3:09 PM, ineedsnow said:

just once I want a storm like this shooting up the coast

No you don't! 

[vortex95]

On 9/22/2026 at 6:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

A real tempest is about to envelop the region. The type not seen in many many years. 

Partially correct.  Nothing like this in Sep for a Nor'easter!

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, vortex95 said:

Partially correct.  Nothing like this in Sep for a Nor'easter!

What are your thoughts in terms of winds interior and coast ? 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here it comes . Keep ramping her up . Can see that dead zone in E Ma up into S NH in lowland downslope 

Clown maps 

[vortex95]

On 9/22/2026 at 7:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a fair amount of folks here who have no idea what the potential is with this. Vort95 nailed it . Glad we recognized and jumped on board early and often. 

Extraordinary/outlier patterns often yield extraordinary/outlier events.  This is one of them from a climo standpoint -- this kind of strong Nor'easter in Sep.  Also, I have to wonder about the winds and mixing, given the near climo peak of SSTs and SSTs 2-4 C above avg S and SE of the region.  If it ends up more unstable, the winds mixing down could be something else.  Coast only or inland as well?  And as we saw w/ the Oct 2021 event, those lows that loop back a bit to the NW when a big high is present to the NW, that can do some pretty wild things w/ the winds.

Also, will the low deepen as a hybrid and get stronger than fcst?
 

[Torch Tiger]

 

[Torch Tiger]

[CoastalWx]

Not IBM anymore and that model isn’t that good. 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Extraordinary/outlier patterns often yield extraordinary/outlier events.  This is one of them from a climo standpoint -- this kind of strong Nor'easter in Sep.  Also, I have to wonder about the winds and mixing, given the near climo peak of SSTs and SSTs 2-4 C above avg S and SE of the region.  If it ends up more unstable, the winds mixing down could be something else.  Coast only or inland as well?  And as we saw w/ the Oct 2021 event, those lows that loop back a bit to the NW when a big high is present to the NW, that can do some pretty wild things w/ the winds.

Also, will the low deepen as a hybrid and get stronger than fcst?
 

This will be nothing like October 2021. That was moving west and then west-southwest with the best gradient overhead. It had like 70kts+ at 950 overhead. Pretty good inversion above 925mb here with 61F SSTs. 

[WxWatcher007]

38 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning the E Coast storm development and possible ST development...

I wanted to share my thoughts and throw this out there for food for thought. @weatherwiz, has the below crossed you mind?  @ineedsnow will be like "BRING IT ON!" as to subtropical development.  @CoastalWxwill just be "MEH" b/c it makes zero difference in Weymouth! 

Sometimes in forecast meteorology you have to think proactively in the abstract at times for those potential outlier events, otherwise you can get "caught behind the 8-ball," playing catch-up and making excuses.  This current E Coast storm situation reminds me a bit of Sandy's situation, except reversed!  A non-tropical low possibly becoming ST near the E Coast and how can it be handled.

I know of no cases where an ET low warm secluded and became a ST storm near the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Yes, the Perfect Storm in 1991 did this, and so did the Oct 2021 biggie (Wanda later), but those TCs formed way E out to sea after the local ET storm impacts had gone.  Not the same when you have ongoing ET low impacts on land, and then the low transitions to a ST storm and gets a name!

I may be reaching a bit here, but I think this particular storm situation warrants some added attention.

ECMWF and UKMET suggest ST transition is possible off the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast.  Clear warm core to 500 and SSTs easily are in range.  Phase diagrams show a fairly good symmetric warm core.

NHC does not even mention it on their 7-day TWO?  I find this a bit odd.  Many, many times they will put in something even if the slightest chance of ST development for systems like this.  Just b/c it is close to the coast and may cause confusing in messaging is irrelevant to the met science!   It is what it is.  You can't pick and choose.  Yes, I know it's not so simple as to how things work overall, but that does not make me wrong in this context.

In this age of social media, do you want ppl calling you out as to "this thing is clearly ST, and yet nothing from NHC".  Not good PR.   It is even more precarious in this case.  Why?, I can not recall a nor'easter this strong for the E Coast in Sep, so SSTs are near climo peak, and they are 2-4 C  above avg S of New England.  Extraordinary/outlier patterns can lead to extraordinary/outlier events, and we have the knowledge/skill to fcst such much better now, and so should use it.

I've seen NHC highlight baroclinic systems in the subtropical EPAC that have no chance of development and give it 0/0, and also in the Atlantic many times, so again, don't tell me there is not anything here to outlook.  If anything, it is more important due to proximity to the coast.

Thoughts?

I've been a longtime defender of NHC decisions on most of their designations, but in recent years (perhaps since Sandy?) I think they've been a little slower or hesitant when it comes to designating anything north of the Carolinas when it's not a slam dunk case. I provided a couple of examples a day or two ago. I can't say for sure, and I definitely do not make this statement to challenge the integrity of the great people working there, but I've seen public facing organizations generally hold a more conservative approach when it comes to making calls that could minimize credibility. 

We see here in this thread people that follow wx closely minimizing this, and the general public for better or worse will fall into the camp of this is the most dangerous thing ever or it's really no big deal. The NHC is in a lose-lose in public perception. Even a TWO mention ramps up the hype machine and everything that comes with it, and if it falls short of expectations in either direction people may be less likely to care about what the NHC says in the future. 

Hopefully I'm wrong, but its harder for the meteorology to stand alone in this era of social media and hype. Just look at the clowns posing the Sandy 2.0 stuff on Twitter and people sharing 925mb wind plots like we're a few thousand feet higher up. There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is. 

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

Leave it to this person to post the most extreme model solution.  This guy is among the worst hype-masters out there. 

No quantifying uncertainty, just stating gusts to 90 mph as if it is a done deal ("will batter").  Deplorable and irresponsible.

And this shows a much greater risk to the Mid-Atlantic than the NEUS.  That's not what most models are showing.  This is non-trivial difference and only serves to confuses the public and authorities more.

" 'Our' IBM GRAF model?"  What's this possessive nonsense?  As if to portray it's his TV station's exclusive? Many TV stations used the GRAF.  Disingenuous and arrogant.

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not IBM anymore and that model isn’t that good. 

I was just thinking of that!  It's The Weather Company's model now, correct?  IBM sold them off years ago.  So that guy can't even get his terminology right.  Sloppy!

I recall the GRAF model being pushed when it shows Dorian in 2019 hitting FL.  How did that work out? 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I was just thinking of that!  It's The Weather Company's model now, correct?  IBM sold them off years ago.  So that guy can't even get his terminology right.  Sloppy!

I recall the GRAF model being pushed when it shows Dorian in 2019 hitting FL.  How did that work out? 

I’d say it’s more designed for mesoscale stuff like convection. It’s better for that, just meant not good for this stuff. Like showing 3K NAM for tropicals.