September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

And the euro is even drier. 

Yeah. It looks like a few showers, drizzly and boring for a week. I wonder what model is correct lol

[snowfan]

0z euro wants to hang the precip back over the mountains leaving areas to the east mostly dry. 6z gfs is more uniform in the distribution of a 1-2" rain during the week. Canadian really wants to crank the low along the coast resulting in enhanced rainfall over the area. 3 different outcomes on the table. WPC has a healthy amount of rain.

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

0z euro wants to hang the precip back over the mountains leaving areas to the east mostly dry. 6z gfs is more uniform in the distribution of a 1-2" rain during the week. Canadian really wants to crank the low along the coast resulting in enhanced rainfall over the area. 3 different outcomes on the table. WPC has a healthy amount of rain.

 

Need to check the UKMET. Now that the CMC has high 500 mb verification scores as well, cant go wrong with that combo!

[stormy]

The 5 model blend for Augusta from Monday - Wednesday has dropped from 2.11" to 1.65" since yesterday.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need to check the UKMET. Now that the CMC has high 500 mb verification scores as well, cant go wrong with that combo!

6z

[CAPE]

Looks like the general trend on guidance is faster movement of the front to our south, and the precip from the initial disturbance stays mostly to the north. Have to see what happens mid to late week with the potential coastal low for significant, more widespread rain for much of the area.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like the general trend on guidance is faster movement of the front to our south, and the precip from the initial disturbance stays mostly to the north. Have to see what happens mid to late week with the potential coastal low for significant, more widespread rain for much of the area.

6z AIEPS likes mid week.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AIEPS likes mid week.

Among the dynamical models the CMC is pretty much alone for now in developing a low close to the coast and giving much of the area significant rain.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Among the dynamical models the CMC is pretty much alone for now in developing a low close to the coast and giving much of the area significant rain.

6z AIEPS entire run fwiw