Tropical Storm Edouard

[NorthHillsWx]

One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…

[SnowenOutThere]

Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record:

12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

[WxWatcher007]

The radar presentation has improved quite a bit in the last few hours. We’ll see if it can develop an inner core quickly. If so, the ceiling rises substantially. 18z hurricane guidance now that there’s recon data on a defined center should be useful.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data through early this
afternoon showed the low-level circulation of this system gradually
becoming better defined, and it was sufficient to designate it as
Tropical Depression Five for the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. This
is consistent with the improved radar and satellite presentation of
the system, with a prominent curved band now evident to the south of
the center. The aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of
38 kt earlier today, and TAFB provided a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate
at 18 UTC. These data support a 30-kt intensity for this advisory.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to
investigate the system tonight.
 
The center of the depression lies to the north and east of prior
estimates based on the aircraft data and recent surface
observations. A low-level ridge over the southeastern United States
is steering the system toward the west-northwest (300/5 kt), and
this general motion should continue through the next couple of days.
The system is expected to move onshore along the northwestern Gulf
Coast within the warning area on Tuesday, with the updated 24-h
forecast point just offshore. There were no significant changes to
the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast was
adjusted slightly north of the previous prediction mainly due to the
repositioning of the center.
 
The tropical cyclone is fairly compact and has a small radius of
maximum wind. Although it only has about a day over the very warm
Gulf waters, strengthening is expected within a generally low shear
environment. Since the small size of the system makes it more
susceptible to quicker intensity changes, the NHC intensity forecast
has been raised and now lies above almost all of the intensity
guidance, including HCCA and IVCN. The legacy hurricane regional
models (HWRF/HMON) show even more strengthening than is forecast
here. While this does not appear to be the most likely scenario,
interests in the warning area are reminded to closely monitor the
latest forecast updates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on
Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Bolivar,
Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana.
 
2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely
across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may
also be possible.
 
3. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, to 
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. Peak values of up to 
4 feet above ground level are possible within the watch area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 28.2N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 28.8N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 29.6N  93.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 30.6N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  02/1800Z 31.6N  96.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
  

[NorthHillsWx]

Latest HWRF says our first hurricane of 2026 will make landfall on the Tx/La border about this time tomorrow...

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too

[WxWatcher007]

Ugh. Short fuse TC development right along the coast. So hard to chase…

[Scott747]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Ugh. Short fuse TC development right along the coast. So hard to chase…

Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.

 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.

 

I have a bunch of work stuff scheduled, but if this is the real deal I might just try a quick turnaround flight. Radar definitely looks increasingly robust and seeing this kind of organization at this time of the day is intriguing. 

[CoastalWx]

It lacks deep convection though. Not impressive on IR...but I do see the well defined circulation on radar.

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/2094534882815082520?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


.

[NorthHillsWx]

I like NHC call if around 50 kts landfall. Don’t think it has time for hurricane intensity unless it can throw up some serious overnight convection, but the overall organization and small circulation definitely favors intensification. That dry air to the north could choke off development, that needs to be watched, but otherwise it has a good look overall

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It lacks deep convection though. Not impressive on IR...but I do see the well defined circulation on radar.

True, but I think what matters here is that there’s still shallow convection firing around the center. The circulation has continued to become better defined with spiral banding now. Radar definitely helps. A well-timed DMAX burst in the morning with some frictional convergence could help this spin up nicely. Can see that a bit now that HAFS has recon data assimilated now. 

[Boston Bulldog]

If this thing can fire some diurnal convection it could go boom. Not a small ask with the dry air nearby however 

[cptcatz]

Looks much more like it's about to go poof rather than boom.

[NavarreDon]

Welcome to 2026 TS Edouard!


.

[olafminesaw]

Dang

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

If this thing can fire some diurnal convection it could go boom. Not a small ask with the dry air nearby however 

Yeah that’s the other thing. Bit of drier air. 

[CoastalWx]

IR is really looking tough.

[mob1]

Let's see if it can build some convection tonight. Either way, the odds of anything remotely noteworthy coming of this is rapidly diminishing. 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

True, but I think what matters here is that there’s still shallow convection firing around the center. The circulation has continued to become better defined with spiral banding now. Radar definitely helps. A well-timed DMAX burst in the morning with some frictional convergence could help this spin up nicely. Can see that a bit now that HAFS has recon data assimilated now. 

1010 mb for a c.p. is pushing it for TS-intensity objectively, but Edouard's small size means a tighter gradient hence stronger winds than you would normally expect.  Andrew N of PR in Aug 1992 when it was struggling against against an upper level low has a 1015 mb pressure per recon and they still found near hurricane-force winds at FL!, so they kept it at a 40 kt TS, but one could argue it opened up as a trough for a time.

You can see dry air entrainment is still an issue (SHIPS diagnoses 700-500 RH of 48% -- anything less than 60% is not good) w/ a sig waning of the  deep convection in the last several hours.  I am not sure why NHC does not explicitly mention dry air as a mitigating factor.  Sure the shear is low and SSTs high, but you need all three solid/favorable for steady intensification or RI.   We saw this w/ Lala.  They kept saying "conditions generally favorable" repeatedly w/o going into the individual factors, such as dry air to the N and NW w/ a stable stratocumulus field.  Yes, Lala intensified, but only slowly. 

My point is we can do better for details when diagnosing and pronosticaing a TC.  Sometimes I think they hedge slightly to avoid anything that makes a system less of a threat on a perception level.  I say, tell it like it is in detail objectivity based on the met science alone, no bias either way!  And ppl (esp. wx weenies!) want such details I have found since it is not "one-size fits all" for TCs.  That's how everyone learns!  The finer points and details on wx phenomena that are not immediately apparent or well-known I find the most interesting.
 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Dang

Tiny sucker!

[vortex95]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

IR is really looking tough.

"Boring?"   Good to see you post elsewhere, not just always on the Weymouth MA...er, I mean New England forum!

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

1010 mb for a c.p. is pushing it for TS-intensity objectively, but Edouard's small size means a tighter gradient hence stronger winds that you would normally expect.  Andrew N of PR in Aug 1992 when it was struggling against an and upper level low has a 1015 mb pressure per recon and they still find near hurricane-force winds at FL!, so they kept it at a 40 kt TS, but one could argue it opened up as a trough for a time.

You can see dry air entrainment is still an issue (SHIPS diagnoses 700-500 RH of 48% -- anything less than 60% is not good) w/ a sig waning of the  deep convection in the last several hours.  I am not sure why NHC does not explicitly mention dry air as a mitigating factor.  Sure the shear is low and SSTs high, but you need all three solid/favorable for steady intensification or RI.   We saw this w/ Lala.  They kept saying "conditions generally favorable" repeatedly w/o going into the individual factors, such as dry air to the N and NW w/ a stable stratocumulus field.  Yes, Lala intensified, but only slowly. 

My point is we can do better for details when diagnosing and pronosticaing a TC.  Sometimes I think they hedge slightly to avoid anything that makes a system less of a threat on a perception level.  I say, tell it like it is in detail objectivity based on the met science alone, no bias either way!  And ppl (esp. wx weenies!) want such details I have found since it is not "one-size fits all" for TCs.  That's how everyone learns!  The finer points and details on wx phenomena that are not immediately apparent or well-known I find the most interesting.
 

Dry air definitely still looks to be an issue, and that was a clear limiting factor even when this was a lemon. I agree that there's no one size fits all for TCs, which is why the Twitter conversation sometimes gets frustrating because cold top convection does not automatically equal RI. You can see the dry air on the northern flank clearly, and it seems clear that it's having an impact, though I think the expanding outflow on the northern side of Edouard does limit it some. 

 

I've always been of the opinion that you need organization before substantial intensification so that's what I look for. Today we've seen substantial progress in that department. We went from a weak and elongated low this morning

To a much tighter wind field, with a meaningful pressure drop this evening on the first recon pass of the evening. 

I still think an overnight/morning convective burst aided by diurnal maximum given the developing inner core should allow for modest intensification, with an added boost from frictional convergence. Like someone else said earlier, I think this is one of those short fuse homebrew cases where we do say if this had more time it could have intensified more substantially. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch given the radar coverage we will have from now through landfall. Tonight I'll be watching to see 1) if the reduction in central convection leads to a collapse in the nascent inner core and if not 2) how soon we see the overnight convective burst I'm expecting. 18z HAFS has that happening around 5am.