September 2026

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will return  for the weekend. Saturday will be a dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highw will be in the upper 60s to around 70°.

A rainy period will likely develop late Sunday. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -34.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.661 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[dWave]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Cooler air will return  for the weekend. Saturday will be a dry day with partly sunny skies. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Highw will be in the upper 60s to around 70°.

A rainy period will likely develop late Sunday. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -34.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.661 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

[Diana W]

46 minutes ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

I hope the rain holds off until the evening.  I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming.  I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

It's early in terms of timing, but Sunday afternoon/evening appear to have the highest chance of heavier rain.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

October 2019 hit 93 degrees.

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0
-	1908	90	0

 

Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	96
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	94
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	94
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	91
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	91
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	91
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	91
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	90

 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, dWave said:

Is the steadier/heavier rain trending later in the day? Ive seen some forecast hinting at that but others not so much. Im trying to figure how doable some outdoor events will be Sun mid morning to early afternoon

Looks like it

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:

PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
ACY: 85
EWR: 84
BLM: 84
JFK: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 80
ISP: 80

[LibertyBell]

On 9/17/2026 at 1:50 PM, straphanger said:

Temps are definitely overperforming with more sun that expected this morning.  LGA is reporting 84 against a 80 degree NWS high.  My station alone hit 87 for a brief period earlier today.  Had to turn on the AC again after I thought I was done with it for the year.

Lol there is a double standard of heat vs ac. Most would be ecstatic if they didn't need to use heat in the winter. 

On 9/17/2026 at 2:08 PM, steve392 said:

Disgusting out.  87 and just feel humid as hell.  Getting dark to my northwest too. 

It really wasn't that bad, try a cold shower and some ice cream.

On 9/17/2026 at 8:22 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s. Cooler air will return  for the weekend.

A rainy period could develop late Sunday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool. The chance that the region could see its coolest air mass this fall arrive toward midweek next week has increased.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -31.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.934 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.0° (0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Don, Fall doesn't begin until Tuesday.

On 9/17/2026 at 9:31 PM, ForestHillWx said:

71/69… gross outside 

Nope perfect morning weather.

On 9/17/2026 at 9:54 PM, TriPol said:

I won't miss this weather at all.

You're strange. Days of clouds and rain is MUCH worse.

23 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nasty out 

Nothing a pint of ice cream and a cold shower won't fix.

 

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Especially with the most recent runs moving to cutoff the upper low under the big ridge.

 

 

 

What is causing these large highs to our north?

4 hours ago, Diana W said:

I hope the rain holds off until the evening.  I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming.  I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

This is why you need a covered deck.

 

 

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Today's Highs:

PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 86
ACY: 85
EWR: 84
BLM: 84
JFK: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 80
ISP: 80

Wow 10 degrees lower than JFK here, 73 degrees. It was the perfect day.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Really unusual fall into spring pattern that year. All-time October warmth followed by not much winter to speak of. Then the record late T of snow in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct top 5 warmest maximum temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0
4	1959	91	0
5	1939	90	0
-	1938	90	0
-	1908	90	0

 

Monthly Data for October 2019 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	96
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	94
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	94
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	93
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	91
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	91
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	91
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	91
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	90

 

 

I loved that fall but that other fall when we had 0 rainfall in October and multiple 80 degrees readings and even mid 80s in November was even better. No heat until November 13th!