September 2026

[MANDA]

Rainfall totals OKX PNS:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

That Montclair total is amazing.  The excessive totals were quite localized but excessive nonetheless.

 

No matter what Fall delivers in terms of cool / cold it is nice to see the first Frost Advisories of the season over the upper Mid-West.

[Brian5671]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

@Brian5671 has been taking it on the chin this summer.  1.20" here, rain just ended

Absolute carnage here.   5.01 at my house but parts of the area with 7.00.    Extreme damage in parts of town

[nycwinter]

did nyc even get a inch from this storm?

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

ISP over 3"

3.06" total

[steve392]

1.5" in my guage in little ferry.  Insane videos of people continuing with the half marathon through 4 foot flood waters along the saddle river in Paramus. 

[donsutherland1]

Daily record rainfall brought flooding to parts of the region, especially Connecticut and New Jersey, earlier today. Drier weather is now taking hold.

The coolest air mass so far this season is poised to move into the region to tomorrow. Highs tomorrow through Wednesday will reach the lower and middle 70s. New York City will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, Central Park will experience its first reading below 60° this season. the timing matches well with the last two El Niño events: 2015-2016: September 14 and 2023-2024: September 15.

Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. However, additional cool air will likely arrive some time during the next weekend.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

The SOI was -25.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.716 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.2° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[winterwarlock]

Just .62 imby

[SACRUS]

Highs:
Nice recovery from the morning rains / deluges
 

New Brnswck: 85
BLM: 85
PHL: 85
TEB: 85
ACY: 84
EWR: 83
LGA: 82
TTN: 82
JFK: *80
ISP: 79
NYC: 79

 

[Picard]

2.21" here that included a localize deluge around 8 am.  Five miles away, my gauge in Lafayette only 0.90".  Wild morning.

[SACRUS]

Quite the humid night (DT low 70s) but the drier air into the Lakes and heading southeat

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Quite the humid night (DT low 70s) but the drier air into the Lakes and heading southeat

To upper 40s low 50s for lows Tuesday 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Highs:
Nice recovery from the morning rains / deluges
 

New Brnswck: 85
BLM: 85
PHL: 85
TEB: 85
ACY: 84
EWR: 83
LGA: 82
TTN: 82
JFK: *80
ISP: 79
NYC: 79

 

We’ll see if we can make it to 20 days reaching 80° at the warm spots like Newark by later in the fall which has become more common in recent years.

 

[SACRUS]

71 / 55 dewpoint temps dropping as trough moves through, ridge races in behind it later Tue pm and through Friday.  Warmer inland / onshore eastern areas but still warmer in the period.  Beyond there a bit back and forth to balance out overall near normal in the period 9/18 - 9/28. Next week could see the coolest readings since June or May between the 20-22, we'll see it it corrects and moderates warmer with more a northwen focus.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 94 (2016)
NYC: 93 (1931)
LGA: 92 (2016)
JFK: 89 (1995)


Lows:

EWR: 45 (1975)
NYC: 45 (1975)
LGA: 48 (1975)
JFK: 48 (1975)

Historical:

 

 

1824: A hurricane storm surge swept over the islands of the Georgia coast with a great loss of life, destruction of crops, and severe floods inland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1912: Hurricane makes landfall just west of Mobile, Alabama. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1919: 357 people died as a hurricane made landfall near Corpus Christi, TX. A 16 foot storm surge inundated the low-lying areas, destroying almost all of the wooden buildings. Port Aransas was almost totally demolished. Damage totaled $20.3 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1928: A violent, estimated F4 tornado, with winds of 200 mph, tore across Rockford, Illinois. The tornado first touched down 8 miles south-southwest of Rockford and moved across the southeast part of the city. The tornado was on the ground for 25 miles with a width varying from 200 to 500 feet. A total of 14 people were killed, with around 100 injuries reported in Rockford alone. Two hundred buildings were damaged or destroyed. 

1937 - The mercury soared to 92 degrees at Seattle, WA, a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1944 - A very destructive hurricane swept across Cape Hatteras and Chesapeake Bay, side swiped New Jersey and Long Island, and crossed southeastern Massachusetts. The hurricane killed more than four hundred persons, mainly at sea. The hurricane destroyed the Atlantic City NJ boardwalk. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1960: Hurricane Ethel developed rapidly in the central Gulf of Mexico early on this date, intensified and moved northward with winds estimated as high as 130 mph near the center late on this date. Ethel went from a tropical storm to briefly a Category 5 within 18 hours. Ethel decreased in intensity rapidly before reaching the coast near the Alabama- Mississippi border on the 15th as a minimal hurricane. Hurricane force winds were reported in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, including Venice which reported sustained winds of 90 mph and gusts of up to 105 mph. Rainfall totals ranged from 2 to 10 inches. Damage was estimated at $1 million dollars and no fatalities were reported. Despite attaining Category 5 intensity, Ethel name was not retired. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1970 - The temperature at Fremont, OR, dipped to 2 above zero to equal the state record for September set on the 24th in 1926. (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: A strong ridge was in place across the west giving very high temperature included: Palm Springs, CA: 114°, Phoenix, AZ: 109°, Victorville, CA: 108°, Fresno, CA: 105°, Stockton, CA: 104°, Sacramento, CA: 103°, San Francisco (Airport), CA: 103°, Santa Ana, CA: 100°, Bishop, CA: 100°, Downtown Los Angeles, CA: 97°, Winslow, AZ: 95 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1977: Severe thunderstorms produced several tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, killing one. 

1982: Beginning the previous day, heavy early season snow blanketed parts of the northern Rockies. Totals included Red Lodge, MT: 36 inches, Mystic Lake, MT: 30 inches, Nye, MT: 15 inches, Sheridan, WY: 7 inches, Billings, MT: 6 inches and Joliet/Columbus, MT: 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1984: A lightning bolt struck a soccer field in West Goshen Township, PA. 26 people were injured and 4 hospitalized, including players, coaches, officials, and spectators. One of the hospitalized died 5 days later. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Barrow, AK, received 5.1 inches of snow, a record for September. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Texas. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced baseball size hail at Laporte City, and 80 mph winds at Laurens. Hail caused more than ten million dollars damage to crops in Iowa. Thunderstorms in Missouri produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Missouri City and Kansas City. A thunderstorm in Texas deluged the town of Fairlie with two inches of rain in just two hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert made the first of its two landfalls on Mexico, producing 170 mph winds at Cozumel. (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Texas panhandle during the evening hours. One thunderstorm spawned a strong (F-2) tornado in the southwest part of Amarillo, and deluged the area with five inches of rain. The heavy rain left roads under as much as five feet of water, and left Lawrence Lake a mile out of its banks. Hurricane Gilbert lost some of its punch crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Its maximum winds diminished to 120 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the south central U.S. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Raton NM with a reading of 30 degrees. The afternoon high of 59 degrees at Topeka KS marked their third straight record cool maximum temperature. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle WA reported a record eight days in a row of 80 degree weather in September. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: A record early season snowstorm came to and end over the western Tanana Valley in central Alaska. 16.7 inches of snow fell at Fairbanks which set a new record for the greatest September snowstorm on record. Denali National Park was buried under 37.6 inches over the four day period and Eielson Air Force Base checked in with 23.5 inches. Along with the snow came record lows across parts of the state including: Barrow, AK: 13°, Delta Junction, AK: 23°, Nome, AK: 24°, Juneau, AK: 32°-Tied and Annette, AK: 38°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Canadian high pressure behind a strong cold front brought record chill to parts of the central U.S. Some low temperatures included: Camp Crook, SD: 19°, Porcupine, SD: 19°, Rapid City, SD: 24°, Sheridan, WY: 24°, Colorado Springs, CO: 28°, Cheyenne, WY: 29°, Pierre, SD: 31°, Goodland, KS: 31°, Pueblo, CO: 31°, Denver, CO: 32 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: A powerful thunderstorm unleashed a destructive wind that wreaked havoc on a small section of Bullhead City, AZ. The fierce wind snapped 24 power poles and damaged approximately 80 houses and mobile homes. 22 of the homes were condemned. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: A powerful thunderstorm unleashed a destructive wind that wreaked havoc on a small section of Bullhead City, AZ. The largest peacetime evacuation in United States history was underway as 2.6 million residents of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas were fleeing in advance of monstrous Hurricane Floyd. By days end, the Category 4 hurricane was battering the northern Bahamas packing winds of 135 mph with a minimum central pressure of 934 millibars or 27.58 inches of mercury.

1999: Drought emergencies and restrictions were lifted in NJ, from Burlington to Ocean Counties and to the S, after increasing rain ended a growing season drought that caused 80 million dollars in agricultural damage. Two days later the unprecedented rains of tropical storm Floyd effectively ended the drought, as up to 14.5" of rain fell, or about 4 months worth of normal rainfall.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2005: Hurricane Ophelia caused some damage and beach erosion along the United States coastline from Florida to North Carolina. The closest approach occurred on September 14 and 15 with its western eyewall crossing land and the eye remaining just offshore in the Carolinas. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Charleston, South Carolina.

 

2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical on this day. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike's remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. Due to flooding in Chicago, a state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported to the east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees.

2011: The remains of Hurricane Ike brought flooding rains/high winds/power losses to the St. Louis, MO, area. In Ladue, MO a woman died when lightning hit a tree and a large limb fell on her; in University City 2 people drowned while trying to move their cars to higher ground. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)
 

2017: Irma is among the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record based on wind speed. The major hurricane could notch more historic moments in the days ahead. Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful hurricanes to roam the Atlantic Basin in more than a decade, and it could hit more historical benchmarks in the days ahead. Here's a rundown of Irma's notable extremes so far. Strongest Winds in Almost 12 Years Irma's maximum sustained winds have so far maxed out at 185 mph. Those winds are well above the 157 mph Category 5 threshold and are the highest registered in any Atlantic hurricane since 2005. Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 19, 2005, was the last hurricane to have maximum sustained winds reach 185 mph. Incredible #GOES16 imagery of Category 5 Hurricane #Irma with 185 mph max wind speeds. 10:36 PM - Sep 5, 2017 One of Four Hurricanes With 185+ MPH Winds The 185 mph winds also place Irma in the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricanes based on wind speed. Only three other hurricanes have had winds of 185 winds or greater, including Wilma (2005), Gilbert (1988) and Allen (1980), according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University. Allen had the strongest winds of those four hurricanes, maxing out at 190 mph in early August 1980. Records that Irma set

2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph - Florence A Write-Up For The Whole Storm

[SACRUS]

On 9/7/2026 at 9:44 AM, SACRUS said:

 

Weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly :

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

More flash flooding here at Tweed following the event back in late July.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Last 50s (59°F or below)

EWR: Jun 16 — 58°F
NYC: Jun 16 — 57°F
JFK: Jun 16 — 58°F
LGA: Jun 2 — 55°F

Last 40s (49°F or below)

EWR: May 31 — 46°F
NYC: May 23 — 49°F
JFK: May 31 — 48°F
LGA: May 12 — 48°F

Last 30s (39°F or below)

EWR: Apr 21 — 35°F
NYC: Apr 21 — 34°F
JFK: Apr 21 — 34°F
LGA: Apr 21 — 37°F

[MANDA]

Finished with 1.63" rainfall here.  Month: 3.26". Y.T.D.: 44.43", making a run at a 50"+ year.

Heaviest rainfall totals from NENJ across Connecticut coast and into R.I.  Isolated spots on L.I. got drenched with 3" totals.

Nice this morning with a gusty breeze, low dp's and temperatures in the 50's for overnight lows across interior NNJ. Low of 58 here.

[bluewave]

The cool down for late September continues to look less impressive following the record near 600dm ridge this week. 
 

EPS new forecast September 21st-28th

Old forecast September 21st-28th

 

[MANDA]

First chilly morning of the coming Fall season over the Great Lakes region.

[NEG NAO]

18 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

The lack of melt points to strong PV. So does the QBO. You can't get a worse winter pattern for the northeast in terms of cold. The cold will be bottled up at the arctic like 2019-2020, and the conus will be flooded with pac air.

love these cancel winter predictions in September especially when the Cansips model is now predicting the warmest water in the Pacific to be in the central area of the Pacific  (Modoki) not along the South America coast. I am suspecting that this upcoming winter will be similar to last winter - for different reasons of course  -especially mid -late January through February