September 2026

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been our pattern since March. Ridge out West builds east from time to time. With the warm ups being stronger than the cool downs which followed. 

Doesn't look very Nino esque to me. Strongest warm anamolies across southern tier. 

[SACRUS]

88 here see if we can touch 90

[FPizz]

49 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

88 here see if we can touch 90

Made it to 86 so far

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't look very Nino esque to me. Strongest warm anamolies across southern tier. 

This was our warmest developing super El Niño summer relative to the long term averages. These used to be reliably cooler summers. 2015 was the first one that was warmer but not as warm as this year was. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

talk about blowing through forecasted highs. it is awful combo of hot/humid out

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

talk about blowing through forecasted highs. it is awful combo of hot/humid out

Forecast was 87, and it got to 86.4 here.  Pretty much nailed it.  

[Brian5671]

82 here-waiting for the cooler air this evening!

[winterwx21]

87 with a dewpoint of 63 here right now. I'm looking forward to the dewpoint dropping to 50 tomorrow afternoon. It's gonna be a beautiful day. 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 90 here today.

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was our warmest developing super El Niño summer relative to the long term averages. These used to be reliably cooler summers. 2015 was the first one that was warmer but not as warm as this year was. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cool El Niño summers are a thing of the past

[steve392]

Was a hot one today.  Had to meet our instructor and classmates in Rahway for a run on a track inspection car.  Was cool and raining in the am. Wasn't expecting the heat when we got back. 

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. In the wake of the frontal passage, highs tomorrow and Friday will likely peak in the upper 70s. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s from the weekend through the middle of next week. Some rain is possible Saturday night into early Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

The SOI was -19.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.175 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:
 

PHL: 90
BLM: 90
New Brnswck: 89
EWR: 89
ACY: 88
JFK: 88 * missing intra hour highs
TEB: 87
LGA: 87
TTN: 87
ISP: 86

NYC: -84

[psv88]

86 today. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Cool El Niño summers are a thing of the past

Cooler summers in general have been missing since 2010. Most of the region finished around the 10th warmest summer this year using dense rank sorting. The Poconos weren’t quite as warm coming in around 19th warmest. So the higher elevations were the place to be. 
 

[SACRUS]

71 / 60 clouds with showers and areas of rain mainly south of CNJ into SNJ. Clear out by the late morning, humidity drops and highs in the upper 70s low 80s.  Similar Saturday dry clear and upper 70s to low 80s.  Clouds and showers on Sunday as trough moves through.  Ridge builds east 9/15 - 9/17 and shot at a day or so upper 80s / low 90s in the hot locations.  Beyond there it doprs back to or below normal 9/18 - 9/24.  Watch tropical activity forming Gulf or Southeast / Caribbean later in the month.  Beyond there overall near normal.

 

vv

 

v

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1983)
NYC: 99 (1983)
LGA: 96 (1983)
JFK: 96 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1932)
NYC: 43 (1917)
LGA: 51 (1967)
JFK: 49 (1967)

Historical:

 

1900: The remnants of the Great Galveston Hurricane were located over central Iowa on this day. Eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and southern Minnesota show four-plus inches of rain from this storm.

 

1942: A line of thunderstorms raced across Minnesota at 70 mph, destroying 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History).
 

1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1954: On September 10th and 11th Hurricane Edna crosses Cape Cod and give the Boston area a record 5.64 inches of rain in 24 hours. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1960: Hurricane Donna made landfall during the evening on the North Carolina coast near Wilmington. Winds gusted to 115 mph and the lowest pressure reported with this landfall was 958 mb. Donna would move offshore once again the next morning and regain strength as it stayed just offshore until hitting Long Island shortly afternoon on September 12 with winds of near 100 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data)

1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel)

1984: (Not to be confused with Diane 1955 Mid Atlantic U.S) Hurricane Diana finally strikes North Carolina coast near Bald Head Island after drifting around the Cape Fear, NC area for two days. Diana made landfall as a category two hurricane, but just the day before, the hurricane had been a category four storm with a central pressure of 28.02 inches of mercury and maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. There were dire predictions of disaster from nervous emergency management officials. Fortunately, Diana stalled and wobbled away from land as it neared the Cape Fear area. Diana was the first significant hurricane to strike the North Carolina coast since Donna of 1960. As the eye passed over Southport, NC residents noted hearing crickets chirping in the calm. Three people died in North Carolina as a result of Diana, but damage was minimal. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: An outbreak of 8 tornadoes occurred across southern Louisiana in conjunction with landfalling Tropical Storm Frances that was looping along the upper Texas coast. The only known fatality directly attributable to Frances was in Lafourche Parish, LA, where a man was killed when his trailer home was destroyed by a tornado. Six others were injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2001: Hurricane Erin was off the coast of New Jersey and New York on this day. 

 

2002
Tropical Storm Gustav strengthened to a hurricane over the open waters south of New England. This is the latest date for the first hurricane of the season to develop for the Atlantic on record.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Hurricane Ike continued its march towards the upper Texas coast with 100 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 945 millibars or 27.91 inches of mercury. Hurricane watches and warnings went up along the upper Texas coast into Louisiana. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2017: In the days leading up to the storm, more than 6.5 million Floridians were told to evacuate. In a calamitous northward sweep from the Everglades to the Florida Panhandle, a weakening but still monstrously powerful Hurricane Irma battered a string of cities on the state’s palm-fringed west coast Sunday before advancing toward Georgia and the Carolinas.Irma hits Florida on Sunday night the 10th.
Irma data

2017: On Monday, a day after visiting lashing rains, surging tides and terrifying winds on nearly every corner of Florida, Irma unleashed flash flooding in three states and left a sweaty, disruptive legacy: no power for about 7 million people. Confronting a panorama of destruction stretching from coast to coast, with rescue efforts still in progress and a massive cleanup only beginning to gather pace, Florida and federal officials opted for frankness: It might take weeks for electricity to be fully restored. The storm’s direct death toll, mercifully, was not commensurate with Irma’s wrath. Authorities in Georgia on Monday reported three storm-related deaths, without providing details, and one person died in South Carolina. An electrocution was reported in central Florida — a grim hazard in flooding’s aftermath. Irma is being blamed for 34 deaths in the Caribbean before it hit Florida, according to the Associated Press.


2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

[SACRUS]

Through a third of the month

Dep through 10th

PHL: + 4.9
TTN: +3.2
EWR: +2.7
JFK: +2.6
ISP: +2.1
LGA: +1.1
NYC: + 0.5

[Stormlover74]

Seems bullish. We'll see

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems bullish. We'll see

I see the models are showing some very heavy downpours for early Sunday morning. The ground has really dried out here over the last week, so I'll gladly take some rain for the vegetable garden. Hopefully it'll happen. 

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1983)
NYC: 99 (1983)
LGA: 96 (1983)
JFK: 96 (1983)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1932)
NYC: 43 (1917)
LGA: 51 (1967)
JFK: 49 (1967)

Historical:

 

1900: The remnants of the Great Galveston Hurricane were located over central Iowa on this day. Eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and southern Minnesota show four-plus inches of rain from this storm.

 

1942: A line of thunderstorms raced across Minnesota at 70 mph, destroying 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History).
 

1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1954: On September 10th and 11th Hurricane Edna crosses Cape Cod and give the Boston area a record 5.64 inches of rain in 24 hours. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1960: Hurricane Donna made landfall during the evening on the North Carolina coast near Wilmington. Winds gusted to 115 mph and the lowest pressure reported with this landfall was 958 mb. Donna would move offshore once again the next morning and regain strength as it stayed just offshore until hitting Long Island shortly afternoon on September 12 with winds of near 100 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data)

1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel)

1984: (Not to be confused with Diane 1955 Mid Atlantic U.S) Hurricane Diana finally strikes North Carolina coast near Bald Head Island after drifting around the Cape Fear, NC area for two days. Diana made landfall as a category two hurricane, but just the day before, the hurricane had been a category four storm with a central pressure of 28.02 inches of mercury and maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. There were dire predictions of disaster from nervous emergency management officials. Fortunately, Diana stalled and wobbled away from land as it neared the Cape Fear area. Diana was the first significant hurricane to strike the North Carolina coast since Donna of 1960. As the eye passed over Southport, NC residents noted hearing crickets chirping in the calm. Three people died in North Carolina as a result of Diana, but damage was minimal. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: An outbreak of 8 tornadoes occurred across southern Louisiana in conjunction with landfalling Tropical Storm Frances that was looping along the upper Texas coast. The only known fatality directly attributable to Frances was in Lafourche Parish, LA, where a man was killed when his trailer home was destroyed by a tornado. Six others were injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2001: Hurricane Erin was off the coast of New Jersey and New York on this day. 

 

2002
Tropical Storm Gustav strengthened to a hurricane over the open waters south of New England. This is the latest date for the first hurricane of the season to develop for the Atlantic on record.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Hurricane Ike continued its march towards the upper Texas coast with 100 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 945 millibars or 27.91 inches of mercury. Hurricane watches and warnings went up along the upper Texas coast into Louisiana. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2017: In the days leading up to the storm, more than 6.5 million Floridians were told to evacuate. In a calamitous northward sweep from the Everglades to the Florida Panhandle, a weakening but still monstrously powerful Hurricane Irma battered a string of cities on the state’s palm-fringed west coast Sunday before advancing toward Georgia and the Carolinas.Irma hits Florida on Sunday night the 10th.
Irma data

2017: On Monday, a day after visiting lashing rains, surging tides and terrifying winds on nearly every corner of Florida, Irma unleashed flash flooding in three states and left a sweaty, disruptive legacy: no power for about 7 million people. Confronting a panorama of destruction stretching from coast to coast, with rescue efforts still in progress and a massive cleanup only beginning to gather pace, Florida and federal officials opted for frankness: It might take weeks for electricity to be fully restored. The storm’s direct death toll, mercifully, was not commensurate with Irma’s wrath. Authorities in Georgia on Monday reported three storm-related deaths, without providing details, and one person died in South Carolina. An electrocution was reported in central Florida — a grim hazard in flooding’s aftermath. Irma is being blamed for 34 deaths in the Caribbean before it hit Florida, according to the Associated Press.


2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

Hurricane Erin off the east coast on this day in 2001.  The subsidence around it gave the area deep blue and cloudless skies.

The rest is sadly history.  Perhaps if it were closer in and we were socked in with clouds and rain things would have been different in some way.  They were determined so maybe not.

Sad day.

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Hurricane Erin off the east coast on this day in 2001.  The subsidence around it gave the area deep blue and cloudless skies.

The rest is sadly history.  Perhaps if it were closer in and we were socked in with clouds and rain things would have been different in some way.  They were determined so maybe not.

Sad day.

Think it would have happened another day most likely....I also think there was a cold front that swept through on the night of 9/10 which helped clear it out

[MANDA]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Think it would have happened another day most likely....I also think there was a cold front that swept through on the night of 9/10 which helped clear it out

My mistake.  You are correct I didn't remember the front.  I thought it was mostly the subsidence around Erin that gave us the clear skies.  I had forgotten how dry and crisp the airmass was that day.  If it was just subsidence it would have been more humid and warmer.  Cold front clearly the reason for the sunny,  deep blue skies.  I do remember in the weeks following 9/11 it was so very dry with minimal rain to cleanse the dust and toxins out of the air and quell the smoke from ground zero.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

My mistake.  You are correct I didn't remember the front.  I thought it was mostly the subsidence around Erin that gave us the clear skies.  I had forgotten how dry and crisp the airmass was that day.  If it was just subsidence it would have been more humid and warmer.  Cold front clearly the reason for the sunny,  deep blue skies.  I do remember in the weeks following 9/11 it was so very dry with minimal rain to cleanse the dust and toxins out of the air and quell the smoke from ground zero.

yep that was the start of the very dry and warm 01-02 non winter

[SACRUS]

79 / 55 clearing out nicely

 

[SACRUS]

2001