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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been our pattern since March. Ridge out West builds east from time to time. With the warm ups being stronger than the cool downs which followed. 

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Doesn't look very Nino esque to me. Strongest warm anamolies across southern tier. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't look very Nino esque to me. Strongest warm anamolies across southern tier. 

This was our warmest developing super El Niño summer relative to the long term averages. These used to be reliably cooler summers. 2015 was the first one that was warmer but not as warm as this year was. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was our warmest developing super El Niño summer relative to the long term averages. These used to be reliably cooler summers. 2015 was the first one that was warmer but not as warm as this year was. 

IMG_7574.png.5f1e0935c8a4a47e286327127f16ca01.png

 

 

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IMG_7577.png.54a83220fd24ec905c4cec8527816e3e.png
 

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Cool El Niño summers are a thing of the past

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Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. In the wake of the frontal passage, highs tomorrow and Friday will likely peak in the upper 70s. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s from the weekend through the middle of next week. Some rain is possible Saturday night into early Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

The SOI was -19.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.175 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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13 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Cool El Niño summers are a thing of the past

Cooler summers in general have been missing since 2010. Most of the region finished around the 10th warmest summer this year using dense rank sorting. The Poconos weren’t quite as warm coming in around 19th warmest. So the higher elevations were the place to be. 
 

IMG_7587.thumb.jpeg.de211c8145e72b09e7d1b5d964793d69.jpeg

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