Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve been trying to tell them . Hopefully they start listening to the seriousness of this 

….we’ll see where we are come Thursday. 

[jbenedet]

There’s actually three areas of SLP development and the one south of Cuba is the most interesting…

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This will be close to reality IMO.

Hope it’s wrong because we desperately need the rain, but sell 

I see you’re limbering up for winter already. Preemptive congrats on the Jack. 

[kdxken]

Phone has been ringing off the hook this morning for firewood. Folks thinking to themselves in another three or four months this could be a cold rain.

[ineedsnow]

36 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There’s actually three areas of SLP development and the one south of Cuba is the most interesting…

I've been mentioning this for days.. its been showing up on some of the ensemble members

[Brewbeer]

36 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Phone has been ringing off the hook this morning for firewood.

what the going rate for a dry cord split and delivered in metro west ?

[Layman]

1 minute ago, Brewbeer said:

what the going rate for a dry cord split and delivered in metro west ?

I too am curious what you folks are paying down that way.  Prices range all over the place up here depending on where you are in the state.  A few weeks back we got 2 cord kiln dried delivered from about 20 miles away for $450/cord.  Most I've paid in years however, for kiln dried, that has been typical for for what I've seen posted about.  

We typically do green in the spring but ironically, and sadly, I recently learned that the reason why our normal firewood guy wasn't returning calls was because his home burned completely to the ground.  Heard this second hand and understand he and his wife are OK but it sounds like it's going to be an uphill climb for them.  

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

But that’s a pretty low bar…no?  

@CoastalWxwill conclude this..."we blow all our chances way too early in the season!  El NIno SUXS"

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

SSTs are 61-63 offshore. Already cooling. 

Immediate coast yes, but that's not where I am talking about.  The low slows stalls over 22-24 C SSTs.  Stop using SSTs closest to Weymouth as if that is the world!   Your IMBY bias needs to end...
 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, MarkO said:

It looks like it is still warm enough to be a warm core storm that will transition as it moves north with the wind field expanding like Sandy did. But all that churning and slow moving is going to cool the surface. 

My niece is getting married on Friday afternoon in Newport in a fancy ceremony. I feel bad, but it might be interesting.

Link to that excellent SST analysis?

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Not around here but what a monster storm Polo turned into and insanely fast

And @ineedsnow I bet thinks the UKX2 intensity fcst is DA BOMB?!  

[MarkO]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

Link to that excellent SST analysis?

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve been trying to tell them . Hopefully they start listening to the seriousness of this 

A September nor'easter of this strength here is uncharted waters.  That high to the N and the way the low comes up so deep?   This would be impressive in mid-winter.  Extraordinary patterns often result in extraordinary individual wx events!

[MarkO]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Immediate coast yes, but that's not where I am talking about.  The low slows stalls over 22-24 C SSTs.  Stop using SSTs closest to Weymouth as if that is the world!   Your IMBY bias needs to end...
 

26C north almost to the benchmark. That's why I was thinking warm core. Regardless, I'm surprised it's not even mention of worthiness to the NHC.

[kdxken]

57 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

what the going rate for a dry cord split and delivered in metro west ?

A lot. I'm guessing minimum of  $550.00 if you are close to the site. Likely cost you a lot more. 

[Brewbeer]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

A lot. I'm guessing minimum of  $550.00 if you are close to the site. Likely cost you a lot more. 

damn, still cheaper than fuel oil. 

One cord of hardwood has approximately 25MBTUs, $550

200 gallons of fuel oil is approximately 26MBTUs, $1,200

A fuel oil fired furnace is probably ~10% more efficient that a well performing wood stove, but still, wood looks like a good deal even at $550 per cord.

 

[Bostonseminole]

Arizona/New Mexico would have serious issues if Polo tracks east toward baja and into the SW.

[kdxken]

30 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

damn, still cheaper than fuel oil. 

One cord of hardwood has approximately 25MBTUs, $550

200 gallons of fuel oil is approximately 26MBTUs, $1,200

A fuel oil fired furnace is probably ~10% more efficient that a well performing wood stove, but still, wood looks like a good deal even at $550 per cord.

 

Exactly. If you're using a fireplace the math changes quickly In favor of the oil. If you have a modern fireplace insert you're golden. Friend of mine has one.  Thing is unreal. Pop some locust in and you can melt steel.

[WxWatcher007]

50 minutes ago, MarkO said:

26C north almost to the benchmark. That's why I was thinking warm core. Regardless, I'm surprised it's not even mention of worthiness to the NHC.

They don’t seem to like pulling the trigger north of the Carolinas. And if they did some people would probably call it hype lol.

[weatherwiz]

Oh my lawdy

[WxWatcher007]

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Oh my lawdy

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026
  
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN 
MORE...
 
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph 
(285 km/h) with higher gusts.  The minimum central pressure has 
dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches.

Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally 
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.

SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

[Lava Rock]

Beggars can't be choosers and we need the rain badly, but hoping no high winds and little rain for our vaca to Rockwood tomorrow-sun. Boat still in at marina (should be ok), but any high winds makes me nervous. Regarding fuel prices, we're pretty damn lucky with our south facing housing. Burn ~500g/yr propane and 1cd of wood. Paid $300 for the cord. Funny side story of a friend of ours that sells wood. He was getting $400/cd at the time (250 was the norm) and calling it "organic". There's a sucker born every day.