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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer


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1 minute ago, alex said:

Not sure… but would be right in line with our usual first frost date. Probably won’t be up to see it though lol. 
 

Lots of cold people watching the Mt Washington 9/11 memorial 

IMG_7901.jpeg

That’s awesome!  So happy the weather cleared today for it.

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"So in a nutshell...the ingredients above are concerning for a narrow band of torrential rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding. The HREF has probabilities for 6-24 HR precipitation values to exceed 10 year ARI across parts of eastern CT/RI and southeast MA. There are even very low probabilities to exceed 100 year ARI values near the south coast. That being said...whether or not this actually materializes remains uncertain and will depend on the mesoscale. And on top of that...even if it occurs trying to determine the specific location is still beyond the state of the
science. But we do know this risk will hinge on the potential for where a mesoscale low tracks...which would setup an area of enhanced
low level convergence for the southerly LLJ to impinge upon"

 

Stein!

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

South coast special tomorrow 

Yeah. Looks like a special morning tomorrow. Hoping to get in on some 2 inch rates. 

However, signals are starting to point to this boundary lying close to if not over Long Island/S CT after day break Sunday morning. There may also be some added lift aloft from a passing jet.

The 00z HREF is showing probabilities of greater than 3 inches in 3 hours around 30 percent over urban NE NJ, NYC into Western Long Island from 09-12z Sunday with some areas 40-60 percent over central LI into the central portions of CT coast 12-15z Sunday, and around 30 percent for southeastern CT 15z-18z Sunday. We have noted in recent flash flooding events that at least a 30 percent chance of 3 inches in 3 hours has often resulted in flash flooding in parts of the urban corridor. The 00z REFS also indicated a probability greater than 50 percent for greater than 3 inch amounts in some of these same areas, specifically east of the NYC metro. There is also about a 20-30 percent probability of around 2 inch per hour rates based of data from the WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard.

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