Eskimo Joe Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 41 minutes ago, stormy said: Historically, be patient until September/October. Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere? One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere? An increasingly active subtropical jet. The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16. In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct. 97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 23 hours ago, WxUSAF said: One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled. Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 On 8/15/2026 at 3:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Question for the mets/long range folks. When would we expect to see such a large/powerful El Nino begin to couple with the atmosphere? Wouldn't that yield more precipitation events in this neck of the wood by now since it's so robust? That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 WPC highlighting our area for heavy rain potential on Thursday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WPC highlighting our area for heavy rain potential on Thursday I have seen this too many times a few days out, and the NWS(Mount Holly) seems to forget the HREF tool is pretty useful when making their forecasts in the short term this time of year where the haves/have nots are difficult to pin down. Somewhat interesting the WPC is including areas in the potential heavy rain area that have been consistently missed in the last 3 weeks. I will believe it when I see it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 4 hours ago, CAPE said: I have seen this too many times a few days out, and the NWS(Mount Holly) seems to forget the HREF tool is pretty useful when making their forecasts in the short term this time of year where the haves/have nots are difficult to pin down. Somewhat interesting the WPC is including areas in the potential heavy rain area that have been consistently missed in the last 3 weeks. I will believe it when I see it. There’s been a noticeable region wide precip shift over the past 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 On 8/16/2026 at 5:10 PM, mitchnick said: That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse. Typically the lag is 2-4 months, so the fall is when we should start seeing a more textbook look for the current Nino in the Northern Hemisphere up to the mid-latitudes. I've been projecting mid to late fall through the winter as the time frame of interest for an increase in precipitation chances with the STJ becoming much more active. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 Heaviest rains have shifted SE in the 7 day from the WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 On 8/11/2026 at 9:25 AM, frd said: Nothing new here, summer seems to hang on in these parts until early October, last October I believe the cooler weather might have arrived a bit sooner, I know it was very dry though. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/fall-forecast-2026-summer-warmth-may-linger-as-el-nino-intensifies/1915201 Where will fall feel the warmest? September may feel more like an extension of summer across parts of the country, especially in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S., where the above-average temperatures will be paired with high humidity and warm nights. It may not be until October before the first intrusions of chilly air arrive in the north-central Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast, but these cold outbreaks are not expected to be long-lasting. Worsening drought could also contribute to the warmth, including in the mid-Atlantic, interior Northwest and across the Rockies, where there are pockets of extreme to exceptional drought. The same dry pattern may also keep wildfire danger elevated into early fall, resulting in episodes of smoky conditions downwind of large blazes. I really hope they're wrong on this. September-October 2018 was just horrible. If I wanted Florida weather I'd move there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 4 minutes ago, kgottwald said: I really hope they're wrong on this. September-October 2018 was just horrible. If I wanted Florida weather I'd move there. It was worse in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 33 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It was worse in 2019. 2019 was at least dry until mid-October, which helped lower the humidity. September 2018 had multiple days of monsoon rains, amounting to almost 10 inches, and only 14 days with no precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:49 PM A refresher on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM WB 18Z 3K NAM. Saturday is looking wet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:24 PM If things go the right way, Saturday could be a drought buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:53 PM Another day, another letdown. Ended up with zilch back home. Got to DC just now and it looks like it rained here. The Crape Myrtle in front of the house that I cut down is making a strong comeback attempt. Time to break out the glyphosate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Thursday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:54 PM 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM. Saturday is looking wet... Jackpot over my house in Huntingtown? That ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Friday at 12:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:03 AM 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM. Saturday is looking wet... The remainder of the month is looking wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted Friday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:41 AM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If things go the right way, Saturday could be a drought buster. Congrats, Frederick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Friday at 12:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:48 AM First mid-lat bomb with snow on the GFS 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 11:08 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:08 PM WB latest weeklies: mild and dry September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted yesterday at 03:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:40 AM 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies: mild and dry September. But that's when the Niño is supposed to kick in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 01:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:58 PM On 8/20/2026 at 8:03 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: The remainder of the month is looking wet. Appears drier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Pumpkin spice Latte time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, frd said: Pumpkin spice Latte time. I was thinking DFH WWS time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago September was mentioned as the month that the niño precip pattern was finally going to kick in but now it seems to have collapsed. What went wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: September was mentioned as the month that the niño precip pattern was finally going to kick in but now it seems to have collapsed. What went wrong? Traditionally, the Niño conditions do start to show themselves come September, but they really haven't shown themselves this summer yet either with cool temps. Though there have been/will be a few flashes of Nino, but not like usual. The -PDO and Niña base state have been hard to shake off. We're going to have to sit tight and wait until October or November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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