August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, stormy said:

Historically, be patient until September/October.

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

An increasingly active subtropical jet.

The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16.

In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct.

97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November.

[Terpeast]

23 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.

Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools. 

[mitchnick]

On 8/15/2026 at 3:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Question for the mets/long range folks. When would we expect to see such a large/powerful El Nino begin to couple with the atmosphere? Wouldn't that yield more precipitation events in this neck of the wood by now since it's so robust?

That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse.

[WxUSAF]

WPC highlighting our area for heavy rain potential on Thursday 

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WPC highlighting our area for heavy rain potential on Thursday 

I have seen this too many times a few days out, and the NWS(Mount Holly) seems to forget the HREF tool is pretty useful when making their forecasts in the short term this time of year where the haves/have nots are difficult to pin down. Somewhat interesting the WPC is including areas in the potential heavy rain area that have been consistently missed in the last 3 weeks. I will believe it when I see it.

[frd]

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

I have seen this too many times a few days out, and the NWS(Mount Holly) seems to forget the HREF tool is pretty useful when making their forecasts in the short term this time of year where the haves/have nots are difficult to pin down. Somewhat interesting the WPC is including areas in the potential heavy rain area that have been consistently missed in the last 3 weeks. I will believe it when I see it.

There’s been a noticeable region wide precip shift over the past 3 weeks.

[MillvilleWx]

On 8/16/2026 at 5:10 PM, mitchnick said:

That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse.

Typically the lag is 2-4 months, so the fall is when we should start seeing a more textbook look for the current Nino in the Northern Hemisphere up to the mid-latitudes. I've been projecting mid to late fall through the winter as the time frame of interest for an increase in precipitation chances with the STJ becoming much more active. 

[frd]

Heaviest rains have shifted SE in the 7 day from the WPC

 

 

[kgottwald]

On 8/11/2026 at 9:25 AM, frd said:

 

Nothing new here, summer seems to hang on in these parts until early October, last October I believe the cooler weather might have arrived a bit sooner, I know it was very dry though.  

 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/fall-forecast-2026-summer-warmth-may-linger-as-el-nino-intensifies/1915201

Where will fall feel the warmest?

September may feel more like an extension of summer across parts of the country, especially in the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S., where the above-average temperatures will be paired with high humidity and warm nights.

It may not be until October before the first intrusions of chilly air arrive in the north-central Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast, but these cold outbreaks are not expected to be long-lasting.

Worsening drought could also contribute to the warmth, including in the mid-Atlantic, interior Northwest and across the Rockies, where there are pockets of extreme to exceptional drought. The same dry pattern may also keep wildfire danger elevated into early fall, resulting in episodes of smoky conditions downwind of large blazes.

 

 

I really hope they're wrong on this. September-October 2018 was just horrible. If I wanted Florida weather I'd move there.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, kgottwald said:

I really hope they're wrong on this. September-October 2018 was just horrible. If I wanted Florida weather I'd move there.

It was worse in 2019.

[kgottwald]

33 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It was worse in 2019.

2019 was at least dry until mid-October, which helped lower the humidity. September 2018 had multiple days of monsoon rains, amounting to almost 10 inches, and only 14 days with no precip.