August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, stormy said:

Historically, be patient until September/October.

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

An increasingly active subtropical jet.

The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16.

In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct.

97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November.

[Terpeast]

23 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.

Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools. 

[mitchnick]

On 8/15/2026 at 3:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Question for the mets/long range folks. When would we expect to see such a large/powerful El Nino begin to couple with the atmosphere? Wouldn't that yield more precipitation events in this neck of the wood by now since it's so robust?

That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse.

[WxUSAF]

WPC highlighting our area for heavy rain potential on Thursday 

[CAPE]

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WPC highlighting our area for heavy rain potential on Thursday 

I have seen this too many times a few days out, and the NWS(Mount Holly) seems to forget the HREF tool is pretty useful when making their forecasts in the short term this time of year where the haves/have nots are difficult to pin down. Somewhat interesting the WPC is including areas in the potential heavy rain area that have been consistently missed in the last 3 weeks. I will believe it when I see it.