August 2026 Medium/ Long Range

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, stormy said:

Historically, be patient until September/October.

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?

An increasingly active subtropical jet.

The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16.

In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct.

97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November.