Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[kdxken]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BDL climo is 82/60 on Friday. A high of 85° is not a torch lol. 

Absolutely. Yesterday's beauty was -1.5 below normal at 81° and 59°. Nightly Lows giveth and taketh away.

[kdxken]

I think it was last week dendrite noted that the majors were all between + 2.0 and + 4.0 above normal. Today Hartford is at +1.1 , Providence is at +1.2, Worcester at + 1.7.  Even the outlier Boston is at 2.8.

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

But but but the drought monitor says no worries. POS product. Meanwhile everything around here is as low as can be when it just has this area as abnormally dry. Earlier this summer under “severe” drought it was full as can be. 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But but but the drought monitor says no worries. POS product. Meanwhile everything around here is as low as can be when it just has this area as abnormally dry. Earlier this summer under “severe” drought it was full as can be. 

It's almost as if they enjoy effing with people.

[dendrite]

57 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Absolutely. Yesterday's beauty was -1.5 below normal at 81° and 59°. Nightly Lows giveth and taketh away.

+2.9 up here at CON. Only 4 days BN and a couple of those were -1 and -2. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

BDL climo is 82/60 on Friday. A high of 85° is not a torch lol. 

Violently disagree with this. A torch is exactly that in late Dewst. Very warm pattern as we move into late week and into next week 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, tamarack said:

Jan 2023 was 9° AN here, our mildest of 28 Januarys, and it had 29.9" snow (avg 20.2") and 101.2" total (avg 88.4").  Different ENSO (mod Nina) but the next winter was mod Nino, our mildest met winter (22-23 was 2nd mildest), and had 99".  Sometimes it's nice to be north.

Yea, temps aren't nearly as prohibitive at your latitude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Violently disagree with this. A torch is exactly that in late Dewst. Very warm pattern as we move into late week and into next week 

I'm with you on this...."cool" pattern was hyped up by some, it's really just warm instead of hot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But but but the drought monitor says no worries. POS product. Meanwhile everything around here is as low as can be when it just has this area as abnormally dry. Earlier this summer under “severe” drought it was full as can be. 

My grass is growing so slowly at this point...like night and day from April-June.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm with you on this...."cool" pattern was hyped up by some, it's really just warm instead of hot.

Yeah there’s no cool or BN pattern. Not hot either but pretty warm and fairly deep summer 

[kdxken]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

+2.9 up here at CON. Only 4 days BN and a couple of those were -1 and -2. 

You guys have been the hotspot for the past 2 years. Suspect a lot of your anomaly this year is due to high lows. Last year your highs were off the charts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah there’s no cool or BN pattern. Not hot either but pretty warm and fairly deep summer 

I don't pay particularly close attention to the weather pattern this time of year in the mid latitudes, so I was excited hearing how "summer is over"...and "fall weather is here". I honestly kept waiting, and waiting...had a gander at the P & C to see 80s for as far as the eye can see. ..was like 'W in the ACTUAL F?

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm with you on this...."cool" pattern was hyped up by some, it's really just warm instead of hot.

We like warm. Don't miss the non-existent hot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, kdxken said:

We like warm. Don't miss the non-existent hot.

I prefer it cooler, but this isn't awful.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah there’s no cool or BN pattern. Not hot either but pretty warm and fairly deep summer 

Correct. No torch as some had forecasted.

[Brewbeer]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Violently disagree with this.

of course you do

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A torch is exactly that in late Dewst. Very warm pattern as we move into late week and into next week 

so very warm pattern and torch are the same, got it

torchy 59/56 here rn

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A beautiful looking 7"/3" coc in late eve. 

Lukey likey girth?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Believe me, take the +AO pattern now....good sign looking ahead IMO.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't pay particularly close attention to the weather pattern this time of year in the mid latitudes, so I was excited hearing how "summer is over"...and "fall weather is here". I honestly kept waiting, and waiting...had a gander at the P & C to see 80s for as far as the eye can see. ..was like 'W in the ACTUAL F?

You should ...

... more often than not the ensuing season inherits the wind.   Sometimes not so much, true.  An autumn(spring) may flip the script and do so more profoundly, yup.  But there is definitely often enough a leitmotif that is subtle but there if one looks;  then it amplifies into better coherence as winter(summer) approaches.   'We started getting coastals in sep that year', lends to active Xmas.  'We started seeing se ridging in latter feb that year', lends to heat in May...etc

 

[Lava Rock]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah there’s no cool or BN pattern. Not hot either but pretty warm and fairly deep summer 

go wash your truck

[Typhoon Tip]

I see the RNA related pattern S of the 45th and warm up others are eluding. It sets in for a week or so coming up, but I'd caution that the negative NAO mode is lingering over the western limb of the domain ... a bit of a wild card.

Now, the NAO is not typically well-handled at this range.  We've seen a lot of winter extended outlooks fail because what looked persistent in the ensembles and their derivatives sort of sneaked into something else while everyone was counting their winter dividends.  Suddenly in the near term we're looking at an entirely different pattern implication while our spirit is still lubed up for the other idea...   It's a heartache index - live by it, forlorn for it.  Summer NAO handling in guidance is not better, that's for sure.

This is sort of an opposite thing.   Usually folks want for a -NAO. The present thread tenor seems people are ignoring it (or just not aware) in lieu of a rah-rah for one last gasp summer heat  ( as an aside.. heat's fleeting of course - ) before we commit to a climate wake-up-call winter.  LOL   maybe, we'll see on the latter. 

anyway, proceed with caution -