Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pea soup fog this AM

About 1.2” of rain yesterday.

I had .45"...largely from one early PM heavy shower.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yesterday afternoon was wonderful.  Abrupt back edge clearing with drying/700 mb circulation got us to 74 with warm sun.

It was a stark contrast to the morning, which was belated at 66 in murk mist ...then the downpours.  But when it ended around 1 or 1:30 the day turned pleasant quite decisively, moving the grade from a complete failure to C ...C+ 

Saturday was dry enough in the morning for 18 holes, though overcast.  Temp 69 to 71 was rather pleasant with no blazing fairways. We did get a light mist shower around 13 ... but it didn't last.  I understand it was wetter south.   So ... C+ for succeeding in ample outdoor time. 

For this region of N ma/Rt 2 it was not an inundating pour sensible weather weekend. 

[Typhoon Tip]

One thing that I found interesting about this summer is the lack of personal experience with actual thunderstorms.  I've seen cool strata rains on 3 separate events, between 1.90 to 2.8" of total rainfall. The one thunderstorm that affected my area occurred earlier this month but I was unfortunately abroad and thus did not get to experience that.  I was in Michigan that week ... a week in which it did not rain at all while I was there.   I have seen lightning flickering distantly from a storm passing, only once, with distant rumbles.  But that's like hearing a party you're not actually invited to.  That's it.  Otherwise, a so-far whole summer in a convective experience dearth.  

I realize this is a near hyper-localized reporting and quite likely doesn't reflect other's impressions - sometimes wholesale weather patterns seem to target one tiny region as though going after one guy's perspectives LOL 

[Brian5671]

Nice day to shut off the AC here and get some fresh air into the house.   62 degrees presently

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One thing that I found interesting about this summer is the lack of personal experience with actual thunderstorms.  I've seen cool strata rains on 3 separate events, between 1.90 to 2.8" of total rainfall. The one thunderstorm that affected my area occurred earlier this month but I was unfortunately abroad and thus did not get to experience that.  I was in Michigan that week ... a week in which it did not rain at all while I was there.   I have seen lightning flickering distantly from a storm passing, only once, with distant rumbles.  But that's like hearing a party you're not actually invited to.  That's it.  Otherwise, a so-far whole summer in a convective experience dearth.  

I realize this is likely a near hyper-localized reporting and quite likely doesn't reflect other's impressions - sometimes wholesale weather patterns seem to target one tiny region as though going after one guy's perspectives LOL 

Complete opposite experience here with multiple severe storms and flooding.  Alot of tree damage this summer

[kdxken]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like ship wrecks? This was near Hull gut which is right at the end of Hull. It’s usually a good spot for them. 

Yes there are many small ship wrecks that are great for sea bass. You were probably near a rock pile they like those too.

[Brewbeer]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nice day to shut off the AC here and get some fresh air into the house.   62 degrees presently

64/63 here, windows open and fans running, had to put on a fleece earlier when I was down by the river: 

[dendrite]

Min 58.3 with pea soup as well.

Still socked in, but every once in awhile I can see blue through the top of the fog layer. 

[wxeyeNH]

Finally,  a beneficial  rain yesterday.     .83"    So August is now up to 1.66"  which beats July's total of 1.62"!

[CoastalWx]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I keep reading on social media is how summer is over, fall is here in the east, blah, blah...then I look at the official forecast, and it's 80s for as far as the eye can see.

MoreGarbage?

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Min 58.3 with pea soup as well.

Still socked in, but every once in awhile I can see blue through the top of the fog layer. 

Left field shout in ...

... looked at some 30 NWS tweener sites on their interactive product and found just one site at 57, which is closely the climatological low for the date for the BDL-FIT-ASH arc mean, otherwise ...most were 60 to 63. 

Above average. 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yes there are many small ship wrecks that are great for sea bass. You were probably near a rock pile they like those too.

Right where it drops off near an island. So probably. Was fun!

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Complete opposite experience here with multiple severe storms and flooding.  Alot of tree damage this summer

98% of New England definitely has been flaccid. 

[CoastalWx]

Deep summer with 70 dews on the cape. We take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MoreGarbage?

Yea, but not just him...it's been pretty widespread. Doesn't seem like a cool pattern to me. It's not "hot", but seems at least seasonable...

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

98% of New England definitely has been flaccid. 

SW CT summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a strongish -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel.  There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this,

...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat, suppressing it back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence.  Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal.  Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region.  We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are on the climate slope and/so heat's rarefying. 

But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect.  We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show.  If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!),  we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts - this latter aspect just because CC seems to baseline us to guaranteeing at least decimals on the warm side relative everything.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is strong -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel.  There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this,

...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat suppression back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence.  Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal.  Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region.  We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are the climate slope and that's rarefying. 

But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect.  We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show.  If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!),  we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts. 

 

Yea, that fits...we've avoided the big heat, but def. not fall like.

[forkyfork]

hello

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh god, I'm gonna catch some bun blow back for this... but in 1995, we started getting hints and starts of -NAOs in late August, that more and then less continued into the autumn ...only to finally dominate from early November on. We started getting a local SE/Can to NE gradient look as the flow was carving a trough around the -NAO bias that month...   Mixy snow and sleet to 2" remained in patches dappled about the UML commons by Veterans Day, and never actually completely disappeared before it was covered over by a more substantial snow mid month...  Didn't see bare ground again until the mega thaw in late mid Jan - lost a 30 inch pack down to field ponds floating confused ducks.    Winter made a decent comeback in Feb, but it wasn't as good. 

That's not likely happening this year and isn't intended as an analog - setting the table for making a point here. 

digressing.. anyway, the point of this was going to be that sometimes seasonal biases have roots in the immediate preceding season.  Like you start seeing the biases early, albeit too subtle to perhaps notice the preponderance setting in.  Until it becomes factored, sort of unknowable...   Similar subject matter, active winters with coastal frequency/events, tend to see a autumn couple of coastals ...    

- the table sets while no one's looking.

I'm only bringing it up because there's a significant correlation between warm ENSO's and the negative NAO mode - east vs west, notwithstanding.  This is particularly true/more so in Jan/Feb.  But I dunno ... if this thing does do the super duper phat dope badass whatever, maybe the dominating statistic punches thru earlier?  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hello

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?