Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

That would be like my peak gust for the last 20 years here.

Looks like they got 58 mph 6 minutes later 

[Cyclone-68]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yay. Finally 

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, mreaves said:

I always thought KMPV would have been a great spot for a radar installation that covered east of the spine and northern NH. 

Yes, nice center point, and MPV airport is 1166 ft.  I think one reason why it was farther W to have coverage in Upstate NY, which is part of the BTV CWA.

Fortunately, the Canadian radars that were upgraded to Doppler last decade help a *lot* for NNE!

On another note, today EC starts targeted (polygon-based) svr/tor warnings.
https://dd.meteo.gc.ca/doc/genots/2026/08/03/NOCN04_CWAO_031225___62572

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

What a difference between MAV/MET for tomorrow  

And MET is going away in Oct.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And MET is going away in Oct.

Thank God. 

IT is unfortunate because its obviously great with CAD scenarios and tends to be better with temperatures along boundaries with extensive clouds and precip but its useless 99% of the time. Oh...should add its also a bit more down to Earth where it will have 93/74 versus the 101/63 the GFS will pull.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I've said this before...the extremeness of our weather events is relatively tame. Even winter storms. Sure now and then we get the monster 2-3ft snowstorms but they're really not crippling. Look at the northern/central Plains and upper-Midwest...they will have large stretches of major interstates closed because combination of winds and snow. But infrastructure and density of trees and the issues of tree disease, the impacts for lesser weather extremes can be far greater than elsewhere. 

We have a combo continental/marine climate, so we get just about everything, just less extremes in terms of frequency.  Is that so bad?

Prevailing westerly flow for continental influence, and the ocean right next to us for marine.  4 very distinct seasons and true variety for all types of wx.

@CoastalWxneeds the marine influence for his Weymouth OES!  And really, continental climate outside of mountain areas?, 8-14" is considered a monster snowstorm.  So be grateful we exceed that for our definition! 

 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Yes!! 

Hawaii looks to be impacted by a TS or min HU in about 5 days.  The angle of approach is a bit atypical coming in towards the Big Island from the ESE, but it is a strong El Nino, and this results in higher potential for a strong TS/min HU direct hit in Hawaii (Iwa in 1982 is a good example) and the cntrl Pacific is more active overall in El Nino.

But the system (93C currently) looks monsoonal and broad, so that should preclude any big intensification. Also, 700-500 RH drops below 60% by 60 hr and below 50% by 72 hr well before it gets to the islands, so despite above avg SSTs, low environmental RH tends to override and will limit things.

Of course the MSM will act like it is end of days, as if such an event is unprecedented.

I will point out this TC on 8/9/1871.  A estimated cat 3 made landfall on the Big Island coming in from the ESE.  To get a TC of this strength coming in from the E at that latitude for a landfall is exceptional.  No other record of anything like this exitss.  Iwa in 1982 and Iniki in 1992 came in from the S 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/1/bams-d-16-0333.1.xml

 

[Cyclone-68]

Iniki was pretty bad for those folks. Still talking about it when I visited a few years ago 

edit: not questioning what was written above of course 

 

[vortex95]

25 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Iniki was pretty bad for those folks. Still talking about it when I visited a few years ago 

edit: not questioning what was written above of course 

 

Thanks.  The 1871 event from the reports was likely similar to Iniki in intensity.  The thing that made the 1871 event stand out was its angle of approach.  Iwa and Iniki both were picked up by a strong trough to the W and accelerated N to the islands.  The 1871 event was just moving within the tropical easterlies. 

In the cntrl Pacific, the way the mean pattern/flow is in the summer and fall makes conditions rather hostile (wind shear) within about 500 mi E of the islands.  So any EPAC system that is intense and tracks W right towards HI weakens significantly to below HU strength by the time it gets to the area.

So whatever pattern was in place over the cntrl Pacific in Aug 1871 must have been highly anomalous for such a strong HU to make landfall from the E.

[ineedsnow]

We need this! I'm guessing a small rain wrapped tornado? 

 

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/wind-flips-car-over-ohio-freeway/507-bdd319f9-20bb-4f8e-8238-ed65ddee0ba4

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We need this! I'm guessing a small rain wrapped tornado? 

 

https://www.fox61.com/article/news/nation-world/wind-flips-car-over-ohio-freeway/507-bdd319f9-20bb-4f8e-8238-ed65ddee0ba4

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[ineedsnow]

92L is up and likely a recurve  but nice to see something atleast

[Cyclone-68]

35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

92L is up and likely a recurve  but nice to see something atleast

I’m going with Tips faux map and I won’t change my mind 

[Damage In Tolland]

SW CT severe again 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SW CT severe again 

SW CT is just a body of water now…basically the Everglades. Wet begetting wet.

[VivaManchVegas]

11 hours ago, jbenedet said:

And crab grass. 
 

The cold weather grasses don’t stand a chance on lawns around here. 
 

much of seacoast doesn’t know managing landscapes well and boy it shows in this warmer climate

 

 

 

I only put one fertilizer on my lawn and that is the early season scotts for crab grass..  It works.  I put it in the front yard, little grab grass, only on the edges of the drive way.  Back yard with the well, none and its grab grass everywhere. 

Edit: my front lawn is 60% grass, 30% clover and 10 percent others (some sort of ivy).  I am fine with that.  The clover is very hardy.  Only down side is it attracts rabbit. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SW CT is just a body of water now…basically the Everglades. Wet begetting wet.

Looks like they get hit again tomorrow night. At this point it’s just laughable 

[Cyclone-68]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SW CT severe again 

In other news the sky is blue and water is wet 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

In other news the sky is blue and water is wet 

Hi res crushes them , S CT coast and them alone again tomorrow night 

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like they get hit again tomorrow night. At this point it’s just laughable 

Have you talked to Shabbs? Does he have any saltwater crocs in his yard yet?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

Have you talked to Shabbs? Does he have any saltwater crocs in his yard yet?

Yes. At this point he literally expects to get hit everyday . Actually kind of cocky about it . But he also thinks he lives in snow banding capital of New England n coastals . So we take with grain of salt @Gibbsfreeenergy

[Torch Tiger]

18z gfs looks good Sunday.  How soon will that turn congrats nyc ?

N/M it already is congrats nyc

[BrianW]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hi res crushes them , S CT coast and them alone again tomorrow night 

Upton has storms rolling in again later tonight.

KEY MESSAGES...

1) Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms with marginal severe thunderstorm possibility through early Wednesday morning.

CAMs indicate two sets of convection that move across the region. One generates late this afternoon with the low level instability and cold frontal forcing, moving from NW to SE across mostly the western half of the region. The second one has more uncertainty and occurs late tonight. Some CAMs have a convective complex moving across the area, mainly across western sections while others having it more to the south of the region.

 

[Hoth]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like they get hit again tomorrow night. At this point it’s just laughable 

Absolute deluge here right now. Ridiculous. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sad when you can say temps around 80 and dews in the mid 60s feels comfortable at 730pm

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sad when you can say temps around 80 and dews in the mid 60s feels comfortable at 730pm

Actually nice here 76°/60° . A few miles from West even better.