Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[weatherwiz]

Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant severe weather event either late Tuesday afternoon or evening/overnight across northern New England. 

Daytime temperatures are expected to climb well into the 80's within the region and probably some spot 90's with dewpoints pushing into the lower 70's. This combination under the presence of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by mid-level lapse rates on order of 7+ C/Km will result in an extremely unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values pushing or exceeding 3000 J/KG. While the timing of this event may be more evening or overnight, instability values will drop off due to the loss of daytime heating, however, MLCAPE values should remain around 1500+  J/KG. 

With the region on the northern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge that is centered over the northern Plains, strong flow will overspread the region with 60-70+ knots of 500mb flow, aiding in the potential for bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots. In addition, a strong surface cold front will be diving south. 

The combination of instability and wind shear ahead of the approaching cold front will set the stage for the development of one, or perhaps multiple clusters or lines of thunderstorms across Quebec which propagate across northern New England late in the day or during the evening or overnight. Given the ingredients, the potential exists for a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts (perhaps some significant wind gusts), and if any supercells develop there will be a risk for large-to-very large hail, and even the risk for a few tornadoes (though this is largely dependent on storm mode and whether surface winds can remain more southerly ahead of the front. 

[powderfreak]

I’d take it.

[WxWatcher007]

Nammy is hellacious 

[mreaves]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I’d take it.

 

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nammy is hellacious 

No flooding please. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nammy is hellacious 

That’s a solid line sagging south.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Starting to get interested in this up in Maine on vacation.  Being in the woods at a cabin surrounded by huge trees. Easy to lose power at this location.  

[jbenedet]

MCS type look down this way. They tend to hold on longer than guidance and are poorly modeled (trajectory, intensity) at very short lead times if they get going. Kind of a mind of its own type deal…
 

Would expect a big fizzle here on the seacoast but with northerly flow, anticipating at least some hefty downpours, which would be nice—could use the rain.

[wxeyeNH]

Wow, SPC already in  enhanced up in NNE

[weatherwiz]

6z/13 NAM bufkit for BTV. About as impressive as an environment as you'll see around here out ahead of storms 

[CoastalWx]

Impressive as model. All around. Gonna be some nasty stuff from Northern Vermont to Maine.

[Modfan2]

Does it hold together for SNE? Back door Derecho for DIT?

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Does it hold together for SNE? Back door Derecho for DIT?

No

[weatherwiz]

Portland may get absolutely drilled. 

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Does it hold together for SNE? Back door Derecho for DIT?

Stein thru the week at a minimum. Very dry again 

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

That’s a solid line sagging south.

Nice.  Haven't seen a good after-dark light show in years.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nice.  Haven't seen a good after-dark light show in years.

You and PF may want to keep an eye on this.

[weatherwiz]

I think we may see 10%/45%/30% on new D2

[weatherwiz]

Over 50 knots of bulk shear with > 1500 MLCAPE within western Maine tomorrow evening on the 12z NAM ahead of that activity approaching from Quebec  

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Over 50 knots of bulk shear with > 1500 MLCAPE within western Maine tomorrow evening on the 12z NAM ahead of that activity approaching from Quebec  

How far south does the line make it?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

How far south does the line make it?

It probably doesn't make it very far south at all. Looks like this will weaken quickly as it drops south across VT/NH. 

I do think there is still a shot for some storms in SNE on Wednesday south of the Pike, especially if the front can time a little slower. But convergence will be lacking and we may be drying out aloft quickly b/c the 850/700 front move through prior to the sfc front. I wouldn't totally sleep on it because if there are storms Wednesday there will be a increased risk for strong/severe

[CoastalWx]

NAM dries out quickly aloft Wed. Best shot is near S coast.

[Cyclone-68]

Uggh…This summer is almost as painful as most of last winter in regards to storms. Jesus…Even for a typical non severe summer it has been frustratingly quiet. Of course not the case W/S/N of us. Even saw some grow over the ocean east of us once. Ok. Rant over 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Portland may get absolutely drilled. 

I'll be in the Ogunquit / Wells area... What are you thinking?  Might be able to see great light show off to the north?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

I'll be in the Ogunquit / Wells area... What are you thinking?  Might be able to see great light show off to the north?

May end up being one of the best light shows you can possibly ask for around these parts  

6z NAM bufkit had >1000 J of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer with > 3000 MUCAPE, that's nuts for this region