Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[weatherwiz]

We kick off the month of July with a trough digging into the western United States and a large ridge of high pressure building into the midwestern states (I refuse to call this a heat ridge...another stupid, hyped up term) resulting in high heat and humidity building into the eastern third of the country. Here in the Northeast, we will find ourselves on the northern or northeastern periphery of the upper-level ridge. This will place us in a favor position for the advection of higher heat/humidity in the lower-levels while favoring a northwestern flow in the mid-to-upper levels. This pattern can be favorable for MCS propagation into the Northeast region as well as the advection of elevated mixed-layer plumes. 

In terms of severe weather potential, computer forecast models hint at some shortwave energy rounding the northern periphery of the ridge into the Northeast (uncertainty as to exactly where). With temperatures well into the 90's and dewpoints well into the upper 60's to 70's under the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, the potential exists for moderate-to-extreme instability to develop with potential for 2500-4000 J/KG of MLCAPE with potential for 30-40+ knots of bulk shear. Should a shortwave work into this environment the potential would exist for numerous thunderstorms, including the potential for some of these to be severe with potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even the potential for tornadoes if enough directional shear is present. 

The high heat and humidity has finally arrived  

[WxWatcher007]

Let's dew it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Please change thread title to either Julorch or Julace . 

[Baroclinic Zone]

We torchtastic 4th.

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please change thread title to either Julorch or Julace . 

Jufry?

Juply?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Jufry?

Juply?

Lol. We need either you or Wiz to change it . No one calls torch months by their real name 

[Baroclinic Zone]

lol, I love ju-ply

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

lol, I love ju-ply

Contemplated J3ply

[JACKASS]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

lol, I love ju-ply

Januarid this winter?

[dendrite]

LFG

Wed

Thu

[weatherwiz]

Bring it baby 

[Typhoon Tip]

Analyzed everything from the 00z GFS/Euro/Canadian.   

En masse/holistically the Wed-Sat heat wave was modestly more intense by potential 1-3 F max (which situates higher nocturnals) than the previous two or three model cycles.  Emphasis on 'modest'.  Because none of these model run/analysis going back several days at this point have deviated significantly from a general motif of being near or at upper bound heat event, it's unlikely to register as much of a sensible human difference.  97 or 101, you're not feeling that change particularly if the DP varies by some ( HI's may vary).

Extremist was GFS at 101/102's common from D.C. to Metro West Boston.  Contrasting upper 90s from the GGEM.  Euro's low balling Wednesday I feel ...otherwise might be a decent compromise.   Hard to really pick one over the other.   I don't see many limiting factors on this 00z cycle, across the board.  All three have off-shore light winds under 21 to 23C 850s, with 300, 500, and 700 sigma level RH fields well below materialized cloud numbers ( ~60%), implying ample solar.

The only thing we're missing here is truer longevity, where it cycles between an interim relaxation followed by resurge over a 7 to 10 day memory maker.   That could materialize in future guidance, but for now ... the index floor doesn't appear to be as favorable for that.  However, there are no huge cooler corrections signaled, either.  The indices are more neutral - keeping in mind that they are less useful in summer.  And the Euro and GFS have typical autumn troughs erroneously over Hudson Bay... which are not mass-field supported, nor demoing any continuity, run to run.  The heights locally stay in the 582 dm range, either way, which connects to climo as AOA

Impressive heat wave as is. Seldom do I recall - if ever - two days back to back on MEX with 101 at KFIT.   This event has some bulk.  Usually we're 94 for 4 days with one day to 99 typology.  Not sure what our climatological "normal"/seasonal heat wave is but I know we don't typically succeed 100 two days running save for some rare historical events.  We'll see where this lays out. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Dews will be dewlicious 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is rare for this area.   Not sure it works this way

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is rare for this area.   Not sure it works this way

 

I'm not buying that at IK in the woods.  95 seems more doable.

 

[Layman]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Wow

Amateur question here...Is that 70 Mt. Washington?

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Layman said:

Amateur question here...Is that 70 Mt. Washington?

Yup

[Typhoon Tip]

I recall back in my UML days ... 72 F(~21 C) on the rock pile was a useful metric/threshold for hundo at Logan in WNW classic transport heat scenarios. 

Not sure if this true over all and SW flow types, but I don't see why not ... provided any south coastal oceanic contamination doesn't take place.  Preferable to keep the winds less backed that 240 deg (260 down near Scott...) etc

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I recall back in my UML days ... 72 F(~21 C) on the rock pile was a useful metric/threshold for hundo at Logan in WNW classic transport heat scenarios. 

Not sure if this true over all and SW flow types, but I don't see why not ... provided any south coastal oceanic contamination doesn't mix. 

Interestingly, according to AI/the internet 72 F is the record high.  I was curious what it was as we were up top one day in 2009 (maybe?) and it was stunningly beautiful, 68 F and still some snow piles in the parking lot.  Got some pics of it around here somewhere.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

Interestingly, according to AI/the internet 72 F is the record high.  I was curious what it was as we were up top one day in 2009 (maybe?) and it was stunningly beautiful, 68 F and still some snow piles in the parking lot.  Got some pics of it around here somewhere.

It may have actually been 70 F but yeah. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I recall back in my UML days ... 72 F(~21 C) on the rock pile was a useful metric/threshold for hundo at Logan in WNW classic transport heat scenarios. 

Not sure if this true over all and SW flow types, but I don't see why not ... provided any south coastal oceanic contamination doesn't take place.  Preferable to keep the winds less backed that 240 deg (260 down near Scott...) etc

72F is the record high...only done in 1975 and 2003.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

72F is the record high...only done in 1975 and 2003.

Yeah I followed that up ..it may have 68 to 70F in that range now that I think back a little harder.  

[dendrite]

Beaten to the punch.

Anyway...big dews here tomorrow afternoon on the 3k. I think this limits the mixing potential tomorrow which may be why highs are toned down a sliver Wed compared to Thu/Fri.

[Typhoon Tip]

Today might be an interesting test as we head into this anomaly scenario.   As an entrance/threshold cross ... the most guidance stall T rises to the 87-89 range, but there are a couple ...such as the GFS, have 90-92. 

The test may only mean how well the guidance 2-m products ( which I hate anyway - ) are going to handle.   But it "might" also be some sort of non-Markovian suggestion of how well we are environmentally materializing the virtual modeling.   interesting..   It's complex though.  It could also be micro-physical processes that more or less alter responsiveness ...  It matters if we're at the ceiling and scratching to lift.

[Layman]

10 minutes ago, Layman said:

Interestingly, according to AI/the internet 72 F is the record high.  I was curious what it was as we were up top one day in 2009 (maybe?) and it was stunningly beautiful, 68 F and still some snow piles in the parking lot.  Got some pics of it around here somewhere.

Found a pic from that day. May 24, 2010

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Beaten to the punch.

Anyway...big dews here tomorrow afternoon on the 3k. I think this limits the mixing potential tomorrow which may be why highs are toned down a sliver Wed compared to Thu/Fri.

Good catch! 

That might explain the Euro's being a little blunted.  

DP handling and timing is going to be factor-able.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Today might be an interesting test as we head into this anomaly scenario.   As an entrance/threshold cross ... the most guidance stall T rises to the 87-89 range, but the a couple ...such as the GFS, have 90-92. 

The test may only mean how well the guidance 2-m products ( which I hate anyway - ) are going to handle.   But it "might" also be some sort of non-Markovian suggestion of how well we are environmentally materializing the virtual modeling.   interesting..   It's complex though.  It could also be micro-physical processes that more or less alter responsiveness ...  It matters if we're at the ceiling and scratching to lift.

Going to end up with convective cloud debris today too and may even see convection begin to pop early afternoon...or maybe closer to mid-afternoon. Pretty healthy looking convective complex (at least from satellite presentation) in Quebec racing southeast

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to end up with convective cloud debris today too and may even see convection begin to pop early afternoon...or maybe closer to mid-afternoon. Pretty healthy looking convective complex (at least from satellite presentation) in Quebec racing southeast

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

looping that ... it may also evap a little when it poors over the ridge lines.   I guess that times about 2 pm, so the damage may be done S-E of HFD-MHT for temp wrt to cloud troubles.  Have to see on that too -

Heat's like this... it's a tedious ferreting to find the way it's going to fail.

[MegaMike]

Although, likely skewed by courser models, the 07z NBM has a high (mean) of 104F for KBOS on Friday w/a std of 2F. 

Definitely entered the hawt'est time of the year. Won't escape (climatologically speaking) until late July. For KBOS, the mean high doesn't start getting colder until July 23rd.

Was planning on staying outside for most of the day just west of Albany on Friday. May have to delay the trip by a day or two.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Although, likely skewed by courser models, the 07z NBM has a high (mean) of 104F for KBOS on Friday w/a std of 2F. 

Definitely entered the hawt'est time of the year. Won't escape (climatologically speaking) until late July. For KBOS, the mean high doesn't start getting colder until July 23rd.

Was planning on staying outside for most of the day just west of Albany on Friday. May have to delay the trip by a day or two.

I saw that. 

NBM is heavily used by NWS per AFD omission. 

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