Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[Brian5671]

Partly sunny here now

[SouthCoastMA]

Nothing super heavy yet. 0.11"

[SouthCoastMA]

28 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Your post is going to rile up the deniers...

I hate that term, but what's that, like 2 people?

[Damage In Tolland]

Getting some brightening and even a break or two of sun 

[OrangeCTWX]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Partly sunny here now

Same here 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summers of yore . Now we summer of bore

Yore is 3 years ago?. You know what average means right?

[Amped]

So the spin on radar seems to have formed over SE PA last night, tracked offshore near Atlantic City,came back onshore near Old Saybrook, and now is east of Pittsfield. Thats an unusual track.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I hate that term, but what's that, like 2 people?

Dumb term for anyone who disagrees with the narrative Tip has.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just a pummeling east of Albany still ongoing . 12-15”?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just a pummeling east of Albany still ongoing . 12-15”?

I see some 9 to 10 2 day totals on WUnderground 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I see some 9 to 10 2 day totals on WUnderground 

Jancock says 1/1000 year type event 

 

[weatherwiz]

Now Sunday into Monday is something that can be a legit flash flood concern 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Now Sunday into Monday is something that can be a legit flash flood concern 

Again?   Good lord

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Jancock says 1/1000 year type event 

 

Can't believe its been that long since Irene, time flies.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Again?   Good lord

Very slow moving cold front becoming parallel to the upper flow and potential for a wave to develop along it. Deep southerly flow out ahead of it so a continuous fetch of moisture. See what happens but these is how you can get widespread 3-4" rain amounts and get those areas of 6-7"+

[CoastalWx]

10" of rain in 24 hrs is 1/1000 yr? That seems a bit much. The recurrence interval would be shorter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Going to be way under an inch here. Bit left to move through 

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

10" of rain in 24 hrs is 1/1000 yr? That seems a bit much. The recurrence interval would be shorter.

Yeah those numbers are always suspicious. 

[WxWatcher007]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Now Sunday into Monday is something that can be a legit flash flood concern 

Wiz, are you seeing what's happening around Albany?  

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

10" of rain in 24 hrs is 1/1000 yr? That seems a bit much. The recurrence interval would be shorter.

Looking at the ARI chart for the Albany area, for a 24 hour period a 500yr ARI is about 8.25" and 9.25" for 1000yr ARI. At a 90% confidence interval--so the ranges are a bit broader. 

https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ct

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wiz, are you seeing what's happening around Albany?  

Looking at the ARI chart for the Albany area, for a 24 hour period a 500yr ARI is about 8.25" and 9.25" for 1000yr ARI. At a 90% confidence interval--so the ranges are a bit broader. 

https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=ct

Yes, but that was within the area of where the highest potential for the greatest rainfall totals. Serious stuff there but rather localized and confined to one area. Basically a much needed rain for everyone with little flooding outside of some usual areas in Fairfield County around Bridgeport. 

[jlauderdal]

49 minutes ago, Amped said:

So the spin on radar seems to have formed over SE PA last night, tracked offshore near Atlantic City,came back onshore near Old Saybrook, and now is east of Pittsfield. Thats an unusual track.

Eyewall approaching, hoping for the best in Pittsfield

[CoastalWx]

Webbed hands have now covered my face.

[dendrite]

67.8°

A few drops

[forkyfork]

here is what a super nino july is supposed to look like

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

10" of rain in 24 hrs is 1/1000 yr? That seems a bit much. The recurrence interval would be shorter.

What do they base these on? A specific gridpoint? 

[Layman]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That area in ENY will get a foot plus . Still many many hours to go there . Wish we had more reports and people that lived there 

Paging @kdxken

I believe this gentleman is requesting some outside-the-region obs you may be able to assist with 

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What do they base these on? A specific gridpoint? 

It’s based on grid point in the link I posted above. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

.58 and ending.

we knew 

[WxWatcher007]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yes, but that was within the area of where the highest potential for the greatest rainfall totals. Serious stuff there but rather localized and confined to one area. Basically a much needed rain for everyone with little flooding outside of some usual areas in Fairfield County around Bridgeport. 

We dodged a bullet in CT for sure. I’m barely over my .50 threshold. 
 

I have as much here in Saranac Lake—hundreds of miles away—as my CT backyard does. What a terrible place for interesting wx.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s based on grid point in the link I posted above. 

Oops…thanks. Just spot reading posts in reverse chronological order. lol