Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[CoastalWx]

3k Nam goes ham in western CT but end of its range doesn’t quite show what happens for everyone else. 
 

Think one jack is probably SWCT and maybe secondary ern/SE MA. 
 

It doesn’t end there, aftn stuff Thursday and maybe even Friday. So many get a good drink. 

[Modfan2]

Down to 50F so far in E CT, can we crack the upper 40’s?

[ineedsnow]

49.2 beautiful out 

[ineedsnow]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3k Nam goes ham in western CT but end of its range doesn’t quite show what happens for everyone else. 
 

Think one jack is probably SWCT and maybe secondary ern/SE MA. 
 

It doesn’t end there, aftn stuff Thursday and maybe even Friday. So many get a good drink. 

RGEM gone wild in western CT

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

49.2 beautiful out 

51° here for the third day in a row. Never made the 40s.

[Brewbeer]

down in the 50s again, what a run 

heading to the river to enjoy some morning coffee

[kdxken]

Whitewater rafting on the Connecticut? 

 

[ineedsnow]

some will flood

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

That a good point.  Actually I just looked, and ydy MLS avg high is 91. 

102 is wicked hot for us in New England, but when the avg high temp in July is 6-9 F cooler 91 that in places like BOS/PVD/BDL, it is not so hot to residents in Miles City.

I doubt you’d find a resident there that said 102° is not hot. The record for yesterday is 104° in 1931 and 1933. They’re also now +7.0F for the month where the std devs are at their lowest. Looks like that 80.8F mean will place this July at the 4th warmest all time with 8 of the top 9 warmest Julys occurring since 2000.

I won’t pretend to claim I know the history of the MLS ASOS siting though. Maybe pre-ASOS was a “cooler” siting. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

RGEM gone wild in western CT

Just what we need here!

[weatherwiz]

I don't know if I see much flooding potential outside of any typical flood-prone areas that flood if it precipitates for more than 5 minutes. A lot of this is drawn out over multiple days and ends up being more convective in nature. There will be a good slug of rain early on in the setup with the warm front or even triple point but this looks to occlude rather quickly. Any flooding risk probably confined to (if) any areas that are hit with several rounds of convection. 

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

3k Nam goes ham in western CT but end of its range doesn’t quite show what happens for everyone else. 
 

Think one jack is probably SWCT and maybe secondary ern/SE MA. 
 

It doesn’t end there, aftn stuff Thursday and maybe even Friday. So many get a good drink. 

Agreed on this. You can see that hinted at just looking at how the mlvls evolve. This is more like a cool season evolution than something we usually see in the warm season. Just looking at 700 RH you can see the idea of two jack zones and where

[Typhoon Tip]

It's funny how those that don't like hot(cold) air ... attempt to gaslight any hot(cold) air as being less significant when it is clear to everyone else that a given region is highly likely in a state of misery in hot(cold) air.

Yet, they are not actually even a part of a given region that is "not suffering" the hot(cold) air, too ...   LOL

 

[CoastalWx]

I’d probably side with some high res models but perhaps not fully. Maybe a Nam/euro compromise. 
 

This feels like one of those things that we have a 50 mile wide plume of heavy rain with embedded little meso lows in it that will enhance rainfall. That’s especially true I think for Western areas. Further east, we might see another one sort of develop and try to pinwheel to the coast again and some typical enhancement on East Northeast flow. But these setups are always varying from run to run. I do think even up to Dendrite gets a good drink.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm still suspecting the whole of it has been over amped in guidance, and as we near the organized coherence might unravel ... at least some.  But ultimately trimming back.  how much so, heh

Won't be butt hurt if that's not the case - just a suspicion in this case.   Lot of tl;dr read to support why -