July 2026

[bluewave]

Models hinting at a rainy cutoff low this week. Details as to where the heaviest convection focuses will have to wait. Since the timing of how soon the upper low cuts off and captures the surface low vary from model to model.

 

 

[FPizz]

57 this morning

[SACRUS]

75 / 55 2 more days of great dry weather before we head into an unsettled stretch Mon - Wed/Thu with on /off showers rain / storms as trough cuts off into the northeast.  Beyond there and in time for the weekend a dry stretch Fri - next weekend.  Overall below normal the next 7 - 10 days beyond there warmer to potentially hotter period from 8/3.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR:  100 (2025)  one of only 2 days in Jul with record highs not 100 or higher prior to last year
NYC: 97 (1999)
LGA: 99 (2025)
JFK: 93 (2010/2025)




Lows:

EWR: 57 (1932)
NYC: 57 (1953)
LGA: 59 (1997)
JFK: 59 (1997)



Historical:

 

1609: The Jamestown expedition nearly came to an untimely end as the fleet of ships encountered a tropical storm while sailing northwest through the Bahamas. One of the nine ships sunk and the rest of the fleet scattered as far north as Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1891 - The mercury hit 109 degrees at Los Angeles, CA, marking the peak of a torrid heat wave. (David Ludlum)

1936: Lincoln, Nebraska saw an all-time high temperature of 115 degrees. The low only dropped to 91 degrees and the average temperature was 103. Many people spent the night sleeping outside to escape the heat. 

 

1952: The State of Alabama was in the midst of a critical heat wave and drought. During an 8-day stretch, the "coolest" high temperature in Birmingham was 99°. The heat peaked on this date in Birmingham at 106°. This was just one degree short of the highest temperature ever recorded at Birmingham on 7/29/1930. During that heat wave and drought, some wells in Alabama went dry for the very first time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1956 - The Andrea Doria sank in dense fog near Nantucket Lightship, MA. The ship was rammed by the Swedish-American liner, Stockholm, forty-five miles off the coast of Massachusetts. Fifty-two persons drowned, or were killed by the impact. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959: The depression meandered westward while steadily intensifying, becoming a Tropical Storm Debra on July 24. A turn towards the northwest became evident as it attained Category 1 hurricane status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale on the following day. Strength was maintained as the hurricane curved northward at a slow forward speed, and it approached the coast of Texas as a minimal hurricane. Debra made landfall between Freeport and Galveston, Texas early on July 25. Debra rapidly weakened into a tropical storm and later a depression as it moved inland, and it dissipated on July 28. The remnant moisture later sparked upper-level thunderstorms in late July and early August.[2] Torrential rains were produced in southeastern Texas, peaking at 15.89 inches in Orange. This led to widespread flooding on highways, including portions of Farm Road 518, Highway 6, Highway 146, and U.S. Route 75. Sea vessels took the brunt of the storm, with many becoming stranded or damaged. Air, rail, and road transportation were significantly interrupted or even shut down. High winds from the storm caused expansive damage to buildings, windows, signs, and roofs. The hurricane resulted in 11 injuries but no human deaths, although approximately 90 cattle drowned. Damage in Brazoria, Galveston, and Harris counties surmounted $6.685 million. Additionally, impact in other areas increased the total losses to $7 million. (Ref. Wikipedia) (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

1972: Killing heat from 13th to 25th resulted in 185 deaths in Baltimore and 85 in the rest of MD. This heat wave in New York and Northeastern United States was significant as almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days.  (1972 Heat Wave - Wikipedia.org)

1974: Brownsville, Minn.--Lightning killed a 17-year-old youth as he slept in a tent. A companion was injured. Western Texas--Lightning struck and fatally injured a woman during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1979: Flooding continues from Tropical Storm Claudette produced phenomenal rainfall totals in southeast Texas. 43 inches fell in 24 hours around Alvin; setting a U.S. record. Freeport reported a total of 30 inches. Total damage from flooding was over $400 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1984: The hardest hit area was the state capital of Pierre of SD. Winds gusting to 83 mph demolished 13 planes and several hangers at the Pierre airport. The thunderstorm also produced very heavy rains as 4 inches of rain fell in 30 minutes flooding streets across town. Winds in excess of 70 mph caused crop and property damage in many areas across central South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1986 - Tremendous hailstones pounded parts of South Dakota damaging crops, buildings and vehicles. Hail piled two feet deep at Black Hawk and northern Rapid City. Hail an inch and a quarter in diameter fell for 85 minutes near Miller and Huron, piling up to depths of two feet. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Sixteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record high of 91 degrees, established just the previous day. It marked their fourth day in a row of 90 degree heat, after hitting 90 degrees just twice in the previous 25 years of records. The water temperature of Lake Erie at Buffalo, NY, reached 79 degrees, the warmest reading in 52 years of records. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from central Kansas to western Kentucky and southern Illinois during the day. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Union, MO, and winds gusts to 65 mph at Sedalia, MO. Five cities in Washington and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date. Medford, OR, hit 107 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early afternoon thunderstorms over west central Missouri drenched the town of Ferguson with four inches of rain. Early evening thunderstorms in Pennsylvania produced more than two inches of rain north of Avella in one hour. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1990: Intense, slow-moving thunderstorms, dumped up to 11 inches of rain in just 6 hours at Lawton, OK. The flash flooding closed many roads, and 50 to 60 motorists had to be rescued when they became stranded in the high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1992: Grapefruit sized hail knocked windshields out of several cars about 9.5 miles northeast of Scott City, KS.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Lightning prevalent in north and eastern GA - 12 homes hit in Cobb County (2 destroyed). A police officer in Augusta survived a strike while working a traffic accident. On the 26th, 10 people at the Atlanta Zoo were injured by lightning while sheltering under a gazebo. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1997: Campbell County, VA a lightning strike injured a man at Timberlake. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1998: Kansas City was especially hard hit by heavy rain with the suburb of Independence reporting 6.5 inches of rain, most of it falling in a matter of a few hours. Thunderstorms produced 2 to 3 inches of rain over parts of Banner and Cheyenne counties of the Nebraska panhandle, with local amounts around 4.5 inches. This produced flash flooding which closed some county roads, and put 6 to 18 inches of water on some streets in Sidney, NE. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: An F4 tornado at Granite Falls, MN caused one fatality and $20 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: The citizens of Sand Point, Alaska saw a rare tornado touchdown on two uninhabited islands. Sand Point is part of the Aleutian Chain and is located about 570 miles southwest of Anchorage.

2006: It was the hottest day during the current heat wave in central California. Some record highs included: Delano: 116°, Three Rivers: 116°, Wasco: 114°, China Lake Naval Air Station: 113°, Fresno: 113°, Bakersfield: 112 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2010: The 105 °F recorded at the Richmond International Airport on the 24th and 25th also ties the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in July in Richmond. The high of 105 °F and low of 79 °F on these two dates yields a daily average temp of 92.0 °F which breaks the all-time daily mean temp of 91.5. Thus making these two dates the hottest days ever recorded in the past 113 years for Richmond. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This highest temperature ever recorded for July of 105 °F has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC)
On the 25th, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds with widespread gusts 60-75 mph and isolated gusts to 90 mph across parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties in Virginia and Montgomery, northern Prince Georges, Ann Arundel and Charles counties in Maryland and in Washington, DC. The storm resulted in 3 deaths from wind and one from lightning, widespread damage from downed trees and power lines, and loss of power to more than 300,000 customers.

[SACRUS]

Lucked out with the hung up boundary/front this week where its been glued to the VA/NC area and bounced a bit north the last two days into the DE-MAR_VA area which pushed clouds into our area yesterday afternoon.  Clouds still into SNJ and PA

 

[TriPol]

The biggest heat dome on the planet!

Anything from long range models on a major pattern change coming up in the US that breaks this heat dome apart?

[Stormlover74]

Looks quite wet next week. Especially northern areas

[donsutherland1]

Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion.

Some showers or thundershowers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -29.61 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.591 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Rode the bike with friends from cedar creek in Wantagh down to jones beach and then down to tobay. Picture perfect day. Wish it was a tad warmer though. Sitting outside now there is a bit of a chill. 

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:
 

PHL: 85
New Brnswck: 82
TEB: 81
NYC: 81
EWR: 80
ACY: 80
LGA: 80
TTN: 80
JFK: 79
ISP: 79
BLM: 78

[SACRUS]

2 days in a row where NYC was warmer than EWR, south-east wind

[Stormlover74]

60s at 9pm on July 25th. I'll take it

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

60s at 9pm on July 25th. I'll take it

Yes.  Another low in the 50s tonight, nice 

[TWCCraig]

57.9 this morning

3 consecutive nights below 60 degrees in July, last time that happened out here at ISP was 2018

[495weatherguy]

9 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

57.9 this morning

3 consecutive nights below 60 degrees in July, last time that happened out here at ISP was 2018

Outstanding stretch of weather on LI

[bluewave]

More more comfortable temperatures here than areas to our west.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

White Plains recorded its fourth consecutive low in the 50s. The last time that happened in July was during 2009. At that time, an El Niño was developing. Strong El Niño conditions are already present this year.

[Stormlover74]

[FPizz]

55

[SACRUS]

76 / 53mid 80s in spots today and another day of this nice stretch before we get into a cutoff trough into the northeast Tue - Fri with upwards of 1 - 3 inches + pending on where the heaviest storms / rain setup. Clears out for a nice stretch in time for next weekend and to open the month.  Warmer overall 8/3 - beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1940)
LGA: 98 (1940)
JFK: 94 (1982)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1953)
NYC: 55 (1920)
LGA: 62 (1976)
JFK: 58 (1976)
 

 

Historical:

 

1819 - Twin cloudbursts of fifteen inches struck almost simultaneously at Catskill, NY, and Westfield, MA. Flash flooding resulted in enormous erosion. (David Ludlum)

 

1874: Torrential rainfall brought flash flooding to Pittsburg, Pennsylvania.

 

1875: A windstorm, possibly a tornado, ripped through Erie, PA killing 134 people and causing $500,000 dollars damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1890: During the morning hours, an estimated F3 tornado went through the southern part of Lawrence, Massachusetts. The tornado left 500 people homeless as the tornado destroyed 35 homes and damaged 60 others. 

1897: Jewel, Maryland received 14.75 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. This record is currently the oldest, state rainfall record in the United States. All other state rainfall records are in the 1900s and 2000s.

1931: A swarm of grasshoppers descends on crops throughout the American heartland, devastating millions of acres. Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota, already in the midst of a bad drought, suffered tremendously from this disaster.

1943 - Tishomingo, OK, baked in the heat as the mercury soared to 121 degrees, a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1960 - The temperature at Salt Lake City, UT, hit 107 degrees, an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel)

 

1974: Cleghorn, La.--A 27-year-old man was killed by lightning while working near a metal tool shed. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1977: Canadian high pressure brought record cold temperatures to parts of the Great Lakes region. Record lows included: Madison, WI: 46°, Muskegon, MI: 46°, Green Bay, WI: 47°, Flint, MI: 48, Toledo, OH: 50°, Detroit, MI: 50° and Springfield, IL: 52°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Tropical Storm Claudette stalled over Alvin, Texas, inundating the town with 45 inches of rain in 42 hours. The total included 43 inches in 24 hours, which is the maximum 24-hour rainfall in American history.

1986: Strong thunderstorms hit north central South Dakota. One of these storms was a very efficient rain producer as it dumped 2.25 inches of rain in 10 minutes near McLaughlin. Strong thunderstorm winds did damage near Mitchell on that same day. The strong winds destroyed a barn, a roof, and windmill in the Mitchell area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced hail two inches in diameter in McHenry County, IL, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Auburn, ME. A wind gust of 90 mph was recorded at Blairstown, NJ, before the anemometer broke. The high winds were associated with a small tornado. The record high of 88 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, and in the south central U.S. Eight cities in the northwestern and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Salem, OR, hit 103 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeastern Texas, with more than three inches reported at the Widllife Refuge in southwestern Chambers County. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Montana, with wind gusts to 62 mph reported at Helena. Eight cities from Maine to Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date, including Newark, NJ, with a reading of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993: Pueblo, Colorado: Record high for date, 101°F and record low for date 52°F, set on same day! (Ref. WxDoctor) The Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993: Rising water stopped all rail traffic through Kansas City, MO. A tornado moved along a 4 mile track across parts of northwest Scottsbluff, NE. The tornado destroyed a furniture store and about 8 homes, with about $3 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: A line of thunderstorms developed in Iowa and pushed southward into northwest Missouri. The early storms produced large hail in the northwest corner of Missouri. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and widespread wind damage occurred from the St. Joseph area southward to the Kansas City metro and other locations in west central Missouri. The highway department reported downed trees up to 4 feet in diameter. A building under construction in an industrial park sustained over $1 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: Two Boy Scouts were injured by lightning while at a campsite during the National Scout Jamboree at Fort A.P. Hill in Caroline County, VA.
(Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) Up to 8 inches of rain fell in about 3 to 4 hours across Copiah County, Mississippi. Various portions of Rankin County had significant flooding. In Pearl, several roads had to be closed. Water also covered several roads in Brandon where up to six inches of rain fell in a few hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2006: Death Valley National Park, California: The low temperature for the day bottoms out at a scorching 104°F. The day's high was only 116°F. Fresno, CA recorded their 5th straight night with a minimum temperature of 80° or better. This is their longest such streak on record. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2009: Rio Grande Valley, Texas: Since June 12th, San Antonio has registered 31 days with temperatures in the 100s °F. Across the Rio Grande Valley, extreme heat in McAllen this month has been staggering with 20 days of record-setting high temperatures. This day made it the 11th day in a row that new record highs were set. (Ref. WxDoctor)

[Stormlover74]

Lol the nam went berserk. 6 to 10" of rain

[Brian5671]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol the nam went berserk. 6 to 10" of rain

RGEM too-although more localized.